Thursday, March 11, 2010

Thursday 11 March

Funny price action yesterday in commodities that disconnected with the dollar. 
This story did not help gold either:
London session seems to have lost a lot of its momentum lately.
SnB on the bid in EURCHF again.
When the US pit closes if my crude trade has not gone anywhere I will close it, there is no momentum and leaving a countertrend position on is just asking for my stop to be eaten.

USDCHF short 1.0699 stop 1.0719 target 1.0550/1.0506
GBPJPY long 135.70 stop 135.30 target 137.30 countertrend
USDCHF stopped out (-1R)
GOLD short closed 50% @3R 1102 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 81.80 stop 82.30 target 80, 1hr bearish engulfing
EURGBP stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE closed 80.00 (-0.4R)

Open trades:
GOLD short 1117 stop 1122
GBPJPY long 135.70 stop 135.30

The only thing wrong with this is 136 is one of my big fat lines in the sand and if we don't hold above it then this is a false break.


  1. Nic, that's your broker feed messing up. I doubt you could get an order accepted even if you tried.

    Sometimes these bucket shops have IT errors, however if you could get a price - exploit it.

    Here's the real crude 1minute chart...

    You should know better :)!

  2. (Dave exploited ETX once when their prices were cyclic glitching like that. He didn't get to take the couple of thousand he made though :(!

  3. London Session feels like its lost all momentum lately :(

  4. Yeah I called them. Thanks Phil. I'm moving brokers soon >>>

    Pozzy - I think its been like this for weeks, I agree. It can look really tempting first thing in the morning, you load up and then you're limit down before the US even opens.

  5. Hi Nic
    Confused picture on daily close this eve. I'm bullish cable but also usdcad? Also bear eurgbp and audusd - confused?? What say you?

  6. I'm the same Danny, it could go either way.
    If I had to call it then I'm not going to bet on Bucky tomorrow, I think the USD will have a down day.
    I like the EURUSD and EURJPY long better than I like cable.
    EURGBP - I don't like it short (yet). I wanted to see it hit that upper trendline and it hasn't so I am not 100% confident short, it has to break the weekly shooting star now to get me short.
    USDCAD is making me crazy. I don't like that twice it has failed to close above 1.03 so I am not taking it long until it gets above there. I will either buy the break or wait for a close above and a retest.
    AUDUSD - I like the level a lot but there is no price action yet to make me want to short it, it's that barbed wire formation. AUDJPY I like the level even better.

    Gold looks ugly but it needs to get below 1100, I would short 1116 or 1117 to run at it again with a cushion. Same with Silver, has to break 16.75 but Gold looks more promising short as silver is really in a congestion zone.

    Perhaps we are too bearish Grimweasel, did you see what the US indices did in the close?