Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Wednesday 31 March

Some volatility yesterday but not much clear direction or trend.  My trades didn't really fail but didn't go anywhere either and its probably because of the shortened holiday week.
Much worse than expected retail sales numbers and MOM home building approvals have taken the shine off AUD.

Last day of the month is not a day you want to be short EUR.  There is big flow in EURGBP and it usually does well.  Chatter is that end of month rebalancing might be negative for USD today also as dollar profits get reallocated to underperforming currencies.
US ADP jobs numbers today might be a bigger mover than usual as markets are closed for Friday's numbers.

CABLE stopped out (-1R)
EURCAD closed 1.3650 (+1R)
EURUSD closed balance 1.3430 (+1.5R)
AUDCAD closed 50% @3R 0.9305 (+1.5R)
AUDCAD short 0.9300 stop 0.9315 DIBS addition
AUDUSD short 0.9150 stop 0.9170 DIBS target 0.9085 / 0.85
GBPJPY short 141.50 stop 141.80 target 140 / 138
AUDJPY short 85.40 stop 85.70 target 83.70
AUDCAD addition stopped out (-1R)
AUDUSD stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY closed 50% @3R 140.60 (+1.5%)
AUDJPY stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY stopped out balance BE
AUDUSD short 91.75 stop 92.20 trying again :)
S+P futs short closed 50% @3R 1162.5 (+1.5R)

Open trades:
AUDCAD short 0.9365 stop 0.9385 - 1/2
S+P futs short 1173 stop 1176.5 - 1/2
NZDUSD short 0.7095 stop 0.7120
AUDUSD short 91.75 stop 92.20


  1. Nice one Nic...heard from my trader friend that strong GDP output has given some support to the pound and it might stay in range until the election or for another 3 months so he doesn't see it going below 48 for a while.

  2. Really? Thanks Ams. Wouldn't surprise me, remember last summer ...

  3. Today is ugly in the yens ... I am working like a one-armed paperhanger. I

  4. yup, Yen is weak due to JP year closing it's always been the case. In March Yen goes weak. Also, on 15th April there is a report due to come and if CNY isn't appreciated by that time ,USA might brand it a currency manipulator that'll impose some trading restrictions or duty tax etc just beware of that. If CNY appreciates yen will fly.

  5. Agree that UK will do anything they can to prevent a GBP collapse (or a FTSE collapse) before the election. So expect a lot of interference.