Friday, March 12, 2010

Friday 12 March 2010

Well I don't know about anyone else but I have had a pretty crappy week.  Most of it not trading but the markets haven't helped.  Anyway in the words of the song its just an ordinary day and its just my state of mind.

I have a daily hammer against my Gold short but I am holding on to it because we are below the daily trendline and I believe the resistance level at 1117 will hold. Closing half to pay for my stop helps.
Continentals (GBP EUR CHF) are moving this morning, and if EURJPY clears the potential resistance at 124.37 then it looks good for at least 127  All the XXXJPY's need to clear highs of two weeks ago but the price action looks promising. 
I still see best potential in EURUSD, USDCHF and Cable.

US Crude had its narrowest range day this year I think.  Saving up some energy for breakout hopefully.  I will trade it either way but $85 still looks inevitable.

The key to what happens later will be the indices in the US session.  The S&P futures shot up to new yearly highs after the close so it looks inevitable the cash price will rally.   But if price fails to either get above or hold above there then everything could stall and we will have inside bars everywhere and another week of indecision.

New trades:
 USDCHF short 1.0670 stop 1.0710PT 1.0550 / 1.05
USDJPY short 0.9050 stop 0.9075 PT 89.50 - 4hr IB countertrend
CRUDE long 82.40 stop 81.90 break of daily IB
USDCHF closed 50% @3R 1.0580 (+1.5R)
GBPJPY closed 50% @3R 136.90 (+1.5R)
CHFJPY long 85.25 stop 85.10 PT 86 - 4hr teenie bar
USDJPY short stopped out (-1R)
GOLD short 1117 stop 1120 addition
CRUDE stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY long 137.80 stop 137.40 addition, 4hr inside bar
CRUDE short 82.00 stop 82.30 PT 81.00
GBPJPY addition stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 81.10 (+1.5R)

Open trades:
GOLD short 1117 stop 1122 - 1/2 & short 1117 stop 1120
GBPJPY long 135.70 stop 135.30 - 1/2 & long 137.80 stop 137.40
USDCHF short 1.0670 stop 1.0710
CHFJPY long 85.25 stop 85.10
CRUDE short 82.00 stop 82.30

EURUSD daily breakout
I took USDCHF instead, but will take this one too next entry or a break / retest of 138.

I am still bearish.  I know this isn't popular with anyone else but I am OK being wrong :)  Until we break out of the big daily descending channel I am selling rallies.

CRUDE daily


  1. hi nic , whats your target for GJ ? 138 ?

  2. Samer
    I think we wobble there but on the daily chart I think 139 and the February swing low (also 61.8fib retracement) is more likely.
    140.60 is a big fat line for me and also the break point of the last fall where price often retraces to.
    So short answer 139 or 140.60
    Have a great weekend

  3. a nice day today indeed , many green pips . have a great week end as well nic, and thanks for your rely

  4. Nice blog. Always a pleasure to discover more intelligent life in the blogosphere. Agree with you on USD:JPY at least until the end of March, although I don't trade FX much.

    Short silver, rather than gold here, on either dollar strength and/or US economic weakness. Swing trader, mainly 3-5 days duration. Deflation/inflation you know my philosophy, it's a race to the bottom in yields!

    Regards, LB.

  5. Wow I am honoured by your visit, LB
    I remember reading you said "Gentlemen prefer Bonds".
    I kept this blog private until very recently, it was mainly a tool to help my own trading.

  6. Nic,

    Like most Patient Bears, I have had a number of crappy weeks. But trading around my core positions in Treasuries has been reasonably profitable.

    Sooner or later the equity bulls have to come out of the igloo, and they are really going to get kicked in the Ice Hole. Cheers for now, LB.