Sunday, August 16, 2009

Sunday 16 August

I have not looked forward to a weekly open like this for ages, to see which way we go ... Signs of possible reversal to strong dollar and yen everywhere, although still counter-trend some of the weeklies look really good. Although everything looks to me like it is topping out, it also has room to poke up again, especially stocks.

Crude - WTI September contract closes on Wednesday and could be a volatile few days.
I am a complete muppet for closing this trade on Thursday night and letting myself get shaken out :( Still in a consolidation range but I am bearish and will trade October contract.

GOLD - weekly bearish continuation, daily has lower highs. Looking for short entries ... possibly price action or retest of 950 level or a break of the daily trendline.

USD - overall longer term trend is still weak dollar but short term I am looking to buy USD. Best looking pairs are GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD. Least favourite are USDCHF and NZDUSD (what is NZD doing up there?) AUDUSD is into support and too closely tied to indices. USDNOK looks set to break 6.00 but will trade it on paper only.

JPY - Yen looks really strong, what is good for the USD looks even better for the JPY. Might stay away from the USDJPY as looking as too volatile. Best looking crosses GBPJPY (off 158, target 150) EURJPY (looking for a break of 133 to 129, & break of 129 to 120) CADJPY looks good too. Will pass on NZDJPY and not sure about AUDJPY.

Crosses: I also like EURAUD short, GBPCHF short, AUDNZD short.

Indices: I am going to pass, too high to buy and no price action to short yet. USD looks set to rally no matter what indices do.

Commodities: If the dollar continues to rally then I like coffee short on break of weekly IB, Soybeans short, Lean hogs short (re-test of $50 or $55) and Live cattle / feeder cattle short on break of weekly IB's. Watching Copper for more signs of reversal, bounced off Dec07 lows and fib level.

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