Sunday, August 23, 2009


After a couple of weeks of only buying USD and only selling crude and metals the charts are showing I should change direction.  The dollar has given it a good old go, but its struggling and below the 61.8fib level.  This could be another choppy August week as dollar heads down to last support at 77.500and could bounce or make a double bottom or consolidate here.

Crude is bullish. After two weeks of bearish shooting stars we now have a big bullish engulfing candle. Only a drop below $70 would negate the bullish trend. Resistance at $78 & $90

However ... 4 hr chart shows possible megaphone top, which if succeeds would take price back to $60 area, however bullish scenario is more likely:
Gold is a weekly bullish hammer and the daily has broken up from a descending wedge but is still stuck below old ascending resistance level from July. I am waiting to see which way next week...
Silver is in a long term downtrend but medium term bullish.weekly has closed as a bullish hammer. However could be stuck here by old long term ascending trendline from lows of October 08.
In the currencies ...
AUDUSD Sideways - weekly and daily doji's, descending channel in longer term uptrend could be bull flag. wait and see, but looks set for higher to 85 and 61.8 fib
AUDJPY Bullish - weekly hammer with short tail after pullback in uptrend, daily bullish hammers
NZDUSD Sideways in long term uptrend looks set to go up and retest 61.8fib and 69.50 
NZDJPY Bullish - weekly hammer with short tail after pullback in uptrend, daily bullish hammers
AUDNZD Bullish - weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish hammer in long term uptrend.
USDCAD Bearish - weekly bearish engulfing, and daily has taken out last weeks swing low, set to retest Aug lows.
CADJPY Bullish, weekly hammer, HH's and HL's in uptrend.
EURCAD Bearish - Weekly candle weak but daily is shooting star in downtrend and bearish rising wedge.
GBPAUD Bearish - new lows in downtrend, resistance off 2.0 , daily bearish engulfing
GBPUSD Sidways/bullish, stuck under 61.8 fib & 1.70. Weekly doji, daily Bullish engulfing but still stuck in range.  Poss daily H&S reversal pattern forming.
GPBJPY Sideways in long term uptrend - weekly is a weak hammer after pullback in uptrend, daily doji.  Sitting on a long term support line from Jan, a break down here is a good short.
GBPCHF - Bearish.  Has been in bearish rising wedge since January.  Could this be the week? Target 1.73 then 1.66 (haha)
EURGBP - Bullish weekly and daily all set to break out of range, buy on dips.
EURUSD Bullish - weekly bullish engulfing, daily took out last weeks swing high although looks set for higher but could bounce off the top and stay in range.
EURJPY Bullish - weekly weak hammer, daily bullish pulled up by stronger euro not weak yen. 
EURCHF Bearish.  Like GBPCHF looks set to break bearish rising wedge. Sell on rallies
USDCHF Bearish - took out 1.06 level, lowest since Dec 08.  But could pull up here, watching Monday.
USDJPY Sideways/Bearish - weekly doji, daily doji in downtrend, last week tweezer top has not followed through strongly. 
USDNOK Bearish - weekly and daily bearish, new lows, sell on rallies
Copper (HGV09) - Bullish but in area of 07 lows and looking for a lower high or weekly price action to short here.  Could be a very nice short setting up ...
Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly doji, daily bearish LL, LH's.  Needs to break long term bearish rising wedge (channel).  Sell on rallies.
Sugar (SBV09) Sideways in uptrend, weekly IB, daily bull flag forming.  Wait for break of weekly IB 
Cocoa (CCZ09) - Bullish, weekly bullish engulfing covers 5 weeks prices, Needs to break and retest 3000 to get me long, or price action to short off that level.
Wheat (ZWZ09) Bearish  but approaching possible double bottom.  Would sell a retest of $50
Corn (ZcZ09) - Bullish, weak hammer and bounce off double bottom, waiting to sell rally.
Soy Beans (ZSX09) - Bullish Weekly bullish hammer in downtrend.  Waiting to sell with price action a retest of  1000 level but could retrace to 1100.  Short term long is interesting ...
Coffee (KCZ9) - Bearish pullback in slow moving uptrend.  Wait for price action to buy.
Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Bullish in downtrend, Strong pullback after new lows ... waiting for resistance at 50 or 55 to short
Live Cattle (LEV09) - Bearish, weekly LH & LL's, pullback in downtrend.  Daily shooting star then two IB's.  Looks a good short.

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