Sunday, August 2, 2009


I was going to write a great long analysis this week but instead here is short version. Its NFP week and maybe some volatility!

All the dollar crosses are right at resistance / support and look set to break out for more dollar weakness. I am not buying the breaks for a few reasons. None of them made new lows / highs except for AUDUSD. Otherwise they are all still within the ranges.
EURUSD although it looks very bullish has a weekly hanging man candle. Cable is a double top and is banging its head on the weekly 20ma and a weekly level from October, USDCAD is at a double bottom, NZDUSD is also at a strong weekly level and fib level, etc.
The dollar index, although it broke the support level is now almost on a 61.8 fib level of the 2008/2009 rally and this is the point of no return.
If the dollar pairs break out then I am wary of fakeout breakouts like cable a month ago and I will not buy the breakouts but will wait for a retest of the levels or a dibs trade. Otherwise I am looking for price action to buy the dollar again. Of all of them I like the USDCAD best for R:R long.

I am bearish XXXJPY crosses and waiting for price action to short them. If USDCAD holds support then I like CADJPY best off a descending daily trendline from December 07. EURCAD is a weekly hammer also signalling possibly some CAD weakness.

I am selling EURGBP on rips, which could mean back up to retest the trendline it broke. Here is the daily chart:

and a weekly chart to put it in context:

I am watching EURCHF for price action to long as it is on a major ascending trendline and also watching GBPCHF to long as they are all correlated with EURGBP.

I am flat crude after the reversal Thu/Fri but watching to see which way the dollar goes. I am also flat silver and gold seeing what the dollar will do.

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