Sunday, August 30, 2009

chart analysis

It looks like a week of possibilities with quite a few pairs at key levels for breakouts, particularly a dollar break, but as we still have another week of August holidays to endure I am not going to get too excited.
Sterling weakness across the board but if the dollar has a fall off then GBPUSD will be an ugly sideways trade and other crosses will have more opportunity.  Commodity currencies are stronger than continentals.  I'm not sure how the landslide Democrat win in the Japan elections will play out with regard to the Yen.  The charts indicate more yen strength for me but there could be a wobble.

Indices ... I am incredulous at the crap stocks that are leading this rally but if I try and look past my bearish bias and purely at the chart then ... the uptrend is clear and we are stalling at a technical fib level. If I look past my bearish bias on the daily or 4hr (below), or I did not know what the chart was I would have to say we could be building a base for a move higher to 1130. Not a trade for me anyhow.

Dollar Index broke below 78 on the strange moves of Thursday afternoon but failed to hold below, is back at the bottom of its range and is bullish short term, although it remains in a clear downtrend.  A lot of long dollar positions must have been stopped out on Thursday.  Crude, Vix and commodity index indicate some short term USD bullishness but into major resistance levels where this could reverse.  Vix moving higher should be bullish for the USD.

Crude is bullish but weakening, after failing to follow through on the breakout and large bullish engulfing candle of last week and is unable to break and hold above $75.    It remains in a clear uptrend but is stuck at resistance level of June highs.  Holding above $70 suggests a base forming for another push higher.  A break of $70 and the ascending trendline suggests a pullback to 66.50.  Having said all that I am still bearish, maybe it is my bias or that it could close above 61.8 of the last weeks swing, I am not sure but I am going to watch for lower timeframe opportunities, or trade a break of the weekly inside bar.

Gold is another weekly bullish hammer and bullish daily has broken out of a short term wedge although longer term wedge is intact.  Failure to break 960 means it is stuck short term and could put in a short term double top at this level.  A break and hold above 960 means a retest of the resistance line at 965.  A break above 965 or below 934 would get me excited.

Silver is weekly bullish and daily bullish but coming up on the big 15.00 level so not a buy for me. Above 15.00 means a retest of the highs at 16.225,  Failure to break that puts in a lower high and changes the picture.  I actually like this short off 15 and a descending daily resistance line forming.

AUDUSD weekly bullish hammer but a daily bearish shooting star indicates a pullback  before continuing higher or more sideways.  It broke out of the bull flag, is trading above 61.8fib level and made it to 7 pips off the high for the year but could not make new highs (yet).  Looks set to continue to do well vs when USD weakness continues and a buy on dips. 

NZDUSD Weekly doji, daily IB - Sideways in long term uptrend but held below 61.8fib and 69.00.  Not a trade at the moment.
NZDJPY Weekly sideways, daily sideways after bullish hammers failed to engage, but pair remains in uptrend.  Might be an interesting short below 63.300 but not the best trade at the moment.
AUDNZD Weekly sideways (uptrend has stalled) and daily has broken out of range and ascending support line and looks an interesting short at this point or off the 1.2350 level.
USDCAD Bearish - Failed to break the 1.10 level looks set to consolidate between 1.08-1.10 before continuing lower to retest Aug lows.
CADJPY Weekly sideways after bullish hammer did not engage yet, daily is bearish with lower highs and a bearish candle Friday.  We are sitting bang on 50fib level from Sep08 highs and Jan 09 lows.  Uptrend is still intact but short term is bearish and a break of the 85 level says we go to 81.60 and a close above 88.500 and we are set to retest highs and 90 level.
EURCAD Weekly sideways in downtrend, daily bullish hammer.  No trade, will wait to short off 1.58
GBPAUD Very bearish, new lows.  Weekly bearish, daily sideways, sell on rallies.
GBPUSD Weakest of all the continental currencies, stuck in a range between 1.61 and 1.66.  For me (I know others disagree and think support will hold) it has broken and retested ascending support and looks set to break down the head and shoulders neckline and I will get short in anticipation.  Beware full moon day Friday could be a pivot day for cable

GPBJPY Weekly bearish and daily bearish, this is sitting precariously on  long term support line from March lows,  I am watching for a break.
GBPCHF - Very Bearish, has broken down long term support line and my target is 1.66.  Has gone a long way without a pullback, this is a sell on rallies.
EURGBP - Very Bullish, has broken strongly out of range and target is 90.  Has gone a long way without a pullback, this is a buy on dips.
EURUSD Sideways but Bullish - EUR is bid and strongest of continental currencies, it moves up on USD weakness and sideways on USD strength, held below an uptrending resistance line.  Looks to be making a base for a move higher.  However weekly rising wedge/channel is bearish longer term for me and I would sell a break of it.
EURJPY Weekly sideways, daily lower highs and lower lows indicates a turn to bearish and I am looking for a break of 1.33 and I would short in anticipation of it and cut if it failed to break. 
EURCHF Weekly and daily bearish, has broken ascending support and all set for lower its a sell.
USDCHF Bearish - took out 1.06 level, and has closed below.  Selling a successful retest of 1.06 or 1.0650 from below to target 1.04, watch which way the daily IB breaks.
USDJPY Weekly bearish, daily IB.  Still in downtrending channel and back below the 50fib level looks all set to retest July lows at 91.80.  I will probably trade daily IB.
USDNOK Bearish - weekly IB but daily is lower highs and lower lows.  I like it short, it has broken the 6.00 level but strong support at 5.94 needs to break.  I would trade a break of the weekly IB.
Copper (HGV09) - Weekly spinner doji, daily has been rejected off 3.00 level. Is trading above 50fib level and has found support off it (2.745) but into an area of 07 lows and strong resistance at 3.00.  I still say could be a very nice short setting up off this level and I will wait for better price action...
Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly spinner doji, daily doji in a tightening wedge.  Sell on rallies  I would short a break of the daily wedge or a breakdown of the weekly rising channel.
Sugar (SBV09) Weekly bullish, daily bullish and at new highs.  Hard to buy at these levels I would stay out and wait for a pullback to support at 20.00 or 18.00 
Cocoa (CCZ09) - Weekly sideways but bullish, daily IB after strongly rejecting 3,000 level.  Now resting on an ascending daily support line. A breakdown of the daily IB would break trendline and set up a nice short, and a break of the IB long continues the uptrend. Conservative trade is a break and retest of the 3000 level.
Wheat (ZWZ09) Weekly doji below 500 level, daily bearish.  Broke and remains below the 500 level I will sell a succesful retest of it from below anticipating a break of the previous low and poss support at 485.
Corn (ZCZ09) - Monthly IB, weekly sideways, daily doji is slow ascending wedge. I would wait to sell a break of the daily ascending trendline from 17Aug anticipating a break of the support at 310 and new lows.
Soy Beans (ZSX09) - Weekly bullish, daily bullish, strong bounce and support off the1000 level and a double bottom. Price is contained in a tightening wedge and looks good for a breakout one way or other... I will trade the double IB long.
Coffee (KCZ9) - Monthly and weekly bearish.  Nice small IB on daily is an NR7 and a good trade setup for fans of Crabels ORB strategy (I am a fan), In fact it is the narrowest range day for weeks.
Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Weekly doji after pullback in downtrend and new lows. Resistance off 48.00 but I am not sure this is a good enough level.  I would prefer to short at 50 or a break of the rising daily support line.
Live Cattle (LEV09) - Bearish, weekly LH, daily bearish.  Sell on rallies, strong support at 85.500


  1. Mind blowing but extremely impressive and interesting!

  2. Great work Nic - excellent chart reads!

  3. Edit to previous comment - I see we're back to barking at the moon again......

  4. uk bank holiday :).

    Nice post.