Monday 31 August

Asian:
SOYBEANS (ZXS09) long 1005, stop 990.00, daily IB
USDJPY short 93.30, stop 93.70,  daily IB break
UK:
GBPUSD short 1.6230, stop 1.6255 4hr BEOB
GBPCHF short 1.7224, stop 1.7240, 4hr  BEEB additions
EURUSD short  1.4270, stop 1.4290, 1hr IB
EURUSD closed 1.4260, wrong trade, wrong day (+0.33%)
SOYBEANS topped and tailed, stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 72.20, stop 72.50, 1hr IB
USDCAD long 1.1005, stop 1.0990, break of 1.10 level; IB
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 70.91 (+1.5%)
USDCAD banked 50% @3xR 1.1050 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD closed balance 1.1020 (+0.5%)
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)

End of month fixing caused a wobble for the dollar which fell at the same time as equities and crude and killed my sterling trades.
Crude is going great guns, broken ascending support line and last weeks swing low.  Succesfull retest of the trendline and resistance at 71.35 keeps me short.

+0.83%
Still short GBPCHF, Crude, USDJPY and Sydney trades.
.

Sydney trades, Sunday 30 August

Sydney trade orders
GBPJPY long 152.35 stop 151.47, short 151.47 stop 152.35
EURJPY long 133.94 stop 133.18, short 133.18 stop 133.94
CADJPY long 85.80 stop 85.18, short 85.18 stop 85.80
All short orders have been triggered.
GBPJPY short stopped out (-1.0%)
EURJPY short stopped out (-1.0%)
CADJPY short Weds AM banked 50% @3xR 83.32 (+1.5%)
CADJPY closed 17:00 GMT Weds 83.70 (+1.19%)

Weekly results so far in %:

GBPJPY ... +2.75 ... +3.1 .. -1.0 ... +2.44 ... -1.0
EURJPY ... +0.75 ... +2.4 ... +0.22 .. +0.41 ... -1.0
CADJPY ... +2.15 ... +3.49 .. +0.3 ... -2.0 ... +2.69
USDJPY ...  -  ......   +1.98 .. -1.0 ...    -    ...   -
TOTAL ... +5.65 ... +10.97 . -1.48 . +0.85 . +0.69

chart analysis

It looks like a week of possibilities with quite a few pairs at key levels for breakouts, particularly a dollar break, but as we still have another week of August holidays to endure I am not going to get too excited.
Sterling weakness across the board but if the dollar has a fall off then GBPUSD will be an ugly sideways trade and other crosses will have more opportunity.  Commodity currencies are stronger than continentals.  I'm not sure how the landslide Democrat win in the Japan elections will play out with regard to the Yen.  The charts indicate more yen strength for me but there could be a wobble.

Indices ... I am incredulous at the crap stocks that are leading this rally but if I try and look past my bearish bias and purely at the chart then ... the uptrend is clear and we are stalling at a technical fib level. If I look past my bearish bias on the daily or 4hr (below), or I did not know what the chart was I would have to say we could be building a base for a move higher to 1130. Not a trade for me anyhow.

Dollar Index broke below 78 on the strange moves of Thursday afternoon but failed to hold below, is back at the bottom of its range and is bullish short term, although it remains in a clear downtrend.  A lot of long dollar positions must have been stopped out on Thursday.  Crude, Vix and commodity index indicate some short term USD bullishness but into major resistance levels where this could reverse.  Vix moving higher should be bullish for the USD.

Crude is bullish but weakening, after failing to follow through on the breakout and large bullish engulfing candle of last week and is unable to break and hold above $75.    It remains in a clear uptrend but is stuck at resistance level of June highs.  Holding above $70 suggests a base forming for another push higher.  A break of $70 and the ascending trendline suggests a pullback to 66.50.  Having said all that I am still bearish, maybe it is my bias or that it could close above 61.8 of the last weeks swing, I am not sure but I am going to watch for lower timeframe opportunities, or trade a break of the weekly inside bar.

Gold is another weekly bullish hammer and bullish daily has broken out of a short term wedge although longer term wedge is intact.  Failure to break 960 means it is stuck short term and could put in a short term double top at this level.  A break and hold above 960 means a retest of the resistance line at 965.  A break above 965 or below 934 would get me excited.

Silver is weekly bullish and daily bullish but coming up on the big 15.00 level so not a buy for me. Above 15.00 means a retest of the highs at 16.225,  Failure to break that puts in a lower high and changes the picture.  I actually like this short off 15 and a descending daily resistance line forming.

AUDUSD weekly bullish hammer but a daily bearish shooting star indicates a pullback  before continuing higher or more sideways.  It broke out of the bull flag, is trading above 61.8fib level and made it to 7 pips off the high for the year but could not make new highs (yet).  Looks set to continue to do well vs when USD weakness continues and a buy on dips. 

NZDUSD Weekly doji, daily IB - Sideways in long term uptrend but held below 61.8fib and 69.00.  Not a trade at the moment.

NZDJPY Weekly sideways, daily sideways after bullish hammers failed to engage, but pair remains in uptrend.  Might be an interesting short below 63.300 but not the best trade at the moment.

AUDNZD Weekly sideways (uptrend has stalled) and daily has broken out of range and ascending support line and looks an interesting short at this point or off the 1.2350 level.

USDCAD Bearish - Failed to break the 1.10 level looks set to consolidate between 1.08-1.10 before continuing lower to retest Aug lows.

CADJPY Weekly sideways after bullish hammer did not engage yet, daily is bearish with lower highs and a bearish candle Friday.  We are sitting bang on 50fib level from Sep08 highs and Jan 09 lows.  Uptrend is still intact but short term is bearish and a break of the 85 level says we go to 81.60 and a close above 88.500 and we are set to retest highs and 90 level.

EURCAD Weekly sideways in downtrend, daily bullish hammer.  No trade, will wait to short off 1.58

GBPAUD Very bearish, new lows.  Weekly bearish, daily sideways, sell on rallies.

GBPUSD Weakest of all the continental currencies, stuck in a range between 1.61 and 1.66.  For me (I know others disagree and think support will hold) it has broken and retested ascending support and looks set to break down the head and shoulders neckline and I will get short in anticipation.  Beware full moon day Friday could be a pivot day for cable http://cougartrades.blogspot.com/2009/08/full-moon.html

GPBJPY Weekly bearish and daily bearish, this is sitting precariously on  long term support line from March lows,  I am watching for a break.

GBPCHF - Very Bearish, has broken down long term support line and my target is 1.66.  Has gone a long way without a pullback, this is a sell on rallies.

EURGBP - Very Bullish, has broken strongly out of range and target is 90.  Has gone a long way without a pullback, this is a buy on dips.

EURUSD Sideways but Bullish - EUR is bid and strongest of continental currencies, it moves up on USD weakness and sideways on USD strength, held below an uptrending resistance line.  Looks to be making a base for a move higher.  However weekly rising wedge/channel is bearish longer term for me and I would sell a break of it.

EURJPY Weekly sideways, daily lower highs and lower lows indicates a turn to bearish and I am looking for a break of 1.33 and I would short in anticipation of it and cut if it failed to break. 

EURCHF Weekly and daily bearish, has broken ascending support and all set for lower its a sell.

USDCHF Bearish - took out 1.06 level, and has closed below.  Selling a successful retest of 1.06 or 1.0650 from below to target 1.04, watch which way the daily IB breaks.

USDJPY Weekly bearish, daily IB.  Still in downtrending channel and back below the 50fib level looks all set to retest July lows at 91.80.  I will probably trade daily IB.

USDNOK Bearish - weekly IB but daily is lower highs and lower lows.  I like it short, it has broken the 6.00 level but strong support at 5.94 needs to break.  I would trade a break of the weekly IB.

Copper (HGV09) - Weekly spinner doji, daily has been rejected off 3.00 level. Is trading above 50fib level and has found support off it (2.745) but into an area of 07 lows and strong resistance at 3.00.  I still say could be a very nice short setting up off this level and I will wait for better price action...
Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly spinner doji, daily doji in a tightening wedge.  Sell on rallies  I would short a break of the daily wedge or a breakdown of the weekly rising channel.
Sugar (SBV09) Weekly bullish, daily bullish and at new highs.  Hard to buy at these levels I would stay out and wait for a pullback to support at 20.00 or 18.00 
Cocoa (CCZ09) - Weekly sideways but bullish, daily IB after strongly rejecting 3,000 level.  Now resting on an ascending daily support line. A breakdown of the daily IB would break trendline and set up a nice short, and a break of the IB long continues the uptrend. Conservative trade is a break and retest of the 3000 level.
Wheat (ZWZ09) Weekly doji below 500 level, daily bearish.  Broke and remains below the 500 level I will sell a succesful retest of it from below anticipating a break of the previous low and poss support at 485.
Corn (ZCZ09) - Monthly IB, weekly sideways, daily doji is slow ascending wedge. I would wait to sell a break of the daily ascending trendline from 17Aug anticipating a break of the support at 310 and new lows.
Soy Beans (ZSX09) - Weekly bullish, daily bullish, strong bounce and support off the1000 level and a double bottom. Price is contained in a tightening wedge and looks good for a breakout one way or other... I will trade the double IB long.
Coffee (KCZ9) - Monthly and weekly bearish.  Nice small IB on daily is an NR7 and a good trade setup for fans of Crabels ORB strategy (I am a fan), In fact it is the narrowest range day for weeks.
Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Weekly doji after pullback in downtrend and new lows. Resistance off 48.00 but I am not sure this is a good enough level.  I would prefer to short at 50 or a break of the rising daily support line.
Live Cattle (LEV09) - Bearish, weekly LH, daily bearish.  Sell on rallies, strong support at 85.500

Friday 28 August 2009

A quiet day, I will start my weekend early and try not short my equity curve.

GBPJPY balance stopped out 152.45 (+0.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
USDJPY stopped out 94.02 (+0.56%)
GBPCHF (Mondays balance) closed 1.7295 (+1.88%)
USDCAD Short 1.0874, St 1.0894, 1st TP 1.0814, 4hr trendline break
USDCAD banked 50% @ 3xR 1.0814 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY short 153.18, stop 153.54, DIBS
USDCAD stopped out balance (-0.5%)
GBPJPY closed 152.28 (+2.5%) - EOD

For the day +5.44%
For the week +19.9%
Sydney +0.85%

Open trades:
GBPCHF short 1.7638

Thursday 27 August

A quiet morning, I already have quite a few trades on.
US weekly employment claims and prelim GDP numbers due before the US open.
Yesterday the market shrugged off good numbers for home sales and stayed pretty flat. Only recently "better than expected" bad news would have rallied the market so it seems pretty weak to me.
Cable chart is bearish. I have been doing a little experiment yesterday and today, selling a half stake as it retests the NY close price in the morning. I sell 10 pips below close price with a 15 pip stop. I am now 2 for 2 on this trade but I should do some more research before this ends in tears.

For some reason crude had a big rally mid afternoon on dollar weakness and everything is following. Dollar is not doing well and my stops are going everywhere.

GBPUSD short 1.6238, stop 1.6253 - half stake addition
GBPJPY banked 50% 3xR 151.75 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short 70.75, stop 71.25 - addition
EURUSD short 1.4250, stop 1.4275 4hr BEOB
EURUSD stopped out ... spiky (-1.0%)
CRUDE (todays) stopped out spiky (-1.0%)
CABLE (todays) stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE (Weds balance) stopped out 71.54 (+1.56%)
USDCAD balance stopped out 1.0892 (+0.84%)
CABLE (Weds balance) stopped out 1.6254 (+2.3%)
GBPCHF (Weds balance) closed 1.72 (+4.5%)
GPBUSD new short 1.6295, stop 1.6315 - cheeky spike short

+7.7%
Open trades tonight:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 & short 1.7483
USDJPY short 94.30, stop 94.80
GBPJPY short 152.80, stop 153.15
GPBUSD short 1.6295, stop 1.6315

Wednesday 25 August

The deputy Governor made a speech where he said a persistantly strong CAD would delay growth in Canada and delay the return of inflation to target( i.e. be deflationary)and he suggested Canada may use unconventional monetary policy instruments including quantitative easing. The race to have the cheapest currency is on.
USDCAD is a bullish engulfing and lower high on daily.
---------------
I'm trying something with levels on sterling, half stakes to see if I can get a tight stop:
GBPCHF short 1.7344, stop 1.7360 - addition
GBPUSD short 1.6346, stop 1.6356 (sold level of last nights close)
USDCAD long 1.0850, stop 1.0825 - daily BUEB
CRUDE short 72.54, stop 72.70, half stakes, 38.2 fib retrace
EURAUD (Mon) stopped out (-1.0%)
SILVER short 14.300, stop 14.350
GBPCHF (Tues) banked 50% @3xR 1.7270 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD banked 50% a 6xR 1.6286 (+1.5%)
CRUDE banked 50% @ 6xR 71.58 (+1.5%)
SILVER stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF (today) stopped 3xR 1.7296 (+1.5%)

Asian session:
GBPJPY short 152.80, stop 153.15 DIBS 1hr IB

+4% for the day.
Open trades:
GBPCHF short 1.7638, short 1.7483, short 1.7390
USDJPY short 94.30, stop 94.80
GBPUSD short 1.6346, stop 1.6356
USDCAD long 1.0850, stop 1.0825
CRUDE short 72.54, stop 72.70

Tuesday August 25

GBPCHF short 1.7390, stop 1.7430, 1hr BEOB - addition
Copper Oct(HGV09) short 2,880, stop 2,930, dbl top
AUDUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF banked 50% @3xR 1.7333 Monday trade (+1.5%)
USDCAD closed 1.0759, dbl bottom (+1.2%)
COPPER closed BE, sideways, don't want to hold overnight
CRUDE short (16:30GMT) 73.75, stop 74.25 ... 4hr BEEB
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 72.25 (+1.5%)
CRUDE closed 71.25 - 50fib level (+2.5%)

You should all sell copper, it will shank for sure now that I closed it.
For the day +5.7%
Open:
GBPCHF short 1.7638, stop 1.7670
GBPCHF short 1.7483, stop 1.7533
GBPCHF short 1.7390, stop 1.7430
EURAUD short 1.7105, stop 1.7165
USDJPY short 94.30, stop 94.80
Sydney trades - short GBPJPY & EURJPY

Monday 24 August

EURAUD short 1.7105, stop 1.7165

USDCAD short 1.0795, stop 1.0825, target 1.0675, 1hr IB
SOYBEANS Nov(ZXS09) short 990, stop 1102, 1st target 940
GBPCHF short 1.7483, stop 1.7533, addition
SOYBEANS stopped out (-1.0%)
Asian session:
USDJPY short 94.30, stop 94.80, target 93.50
AUDUSD short 0.8360, stop 0.8385 1hr IB (DIBs)

For the day -1.0%
Open Positions tonight:
Short USDJPY, AUDUSD, GBPCHF, EURAUD, USDCAD
Short GBPJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY (sydney trades),

Sydney Sunday 23 August

Sydney trade orders
GBPJPY long 156.40 stop 155.70, short 155.70 stop 156.40
EURJPY long 135.83 stop 135.15, short 135.15, stop 135.83
CADJPY long 87.69 stop  86.85, short 86.85 stop 87.69
All long orders triggered
GBPJPY long stopped out (-1.0%)
EURJPY long stopped out (-1.0%)
CADJPY long stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJP, EURJPY & CADJPY;short orders triggered
CADJPY short stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY short banked 50% 3xR 153.60 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY short closed 152.98 (+1.94%) - closed 17:00GMT Weds
EURJPY short closed 134.19 (+1.41%) - closed 17:00GMT Weds

Weekly results so far in %:
GBPJPY ... 2.75 ... 3.1 .. -1.0 ... +2.44
EURJPY ... 0.75 ... 2.4 ... 0.22 .. +0.41
CADJPY ... 2.15 ... 3.49 .. 0.3 ... -2.0
USDJPY ... - ...... 1.98 .. -1.0 ... -
TOTAL .. +5.65 .. +10.97 . -1.48 . +0.85

18 total trades (11 winners, 7 losers), 18% risked, 21.31% returned so far. Not bad for a month of chop.
I am dropping USDJPY to lower my weekly risk (max drawdown potential) a bit.

Charts

After a couple of weeks of only buying USD and only selling crude and metals the charts are showing I should change direction.  The dollar has given it a good old go, but its struggling and below the 61.8fib level.  This could be another choppy August week as dollar heads down to last support at 77.500and could bounce or make a double bottom or consolidate here.

Crude is bullish. After two weeks of bearish shooting stars we now have a big bullish engulfing candle. Only a drop below $70 would negate the bullish trend. Resistance at $78 & $90

However ... 4 hr chart shows possible megaphone top, which if succeeds would take price back to $60 area, however bullish scenario is more likely:

Gold is a weekly bullish hammer and the daily has broken up from a descending wedge but is still stuck below old ascending resistance level from July. I am waiting to see which way next week...

Silver is in a long term downtrend but medium term bullish.weekly has closed as a bullish hammer. However could be stuck here by old long term ascending trendline from lows of October 08.

In the currencies ...

AUDUSD Sideways - weekly and daily doji's, descending channel in longer term uptrend could be bull flag. wait and see, but looks set for higher to 85 and 61.8 fib

AUDJPY Bullish - weekly hammer with short tail after pullback in uptrend, daily bullish hammers

NZDUSD Sideways in long term uptrend looks set to go up and retest 61.8fib and 69.50 

NZDJPY Bullish - weekly hammer with short tail after pullback in uptrend, daily bullish hammers

AUDNZD Bullish - weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish hammer in long term uptrend.

USDCAD Bearish - weekly bearish engulfing, and daily has taken out last weeks swing low, set to retest Aug lows.

CADJPY Bullish, weekly hammer, HH's and HL's in uptrend.

EURCAD Bearish - Weekly candle weak but daily is shooting star in downtrend and bearish rising wedge.

GBPAUD Bearish - new lows in downtrend, resistance off 2.0 , daily bearish engulfing

GBPUSD Sidways/bullish, stuck under 61.8 fib & 1.70. Weekly doji, daily Bullish engulfing but still stuck in range.  Poss daily H&S reversal pattern forming.

GPBJPY Sideways in long term uptrend - weekly is a weak hammer after pullback in uptrend, daily doji.  Sitting on a long term support line from Jan, a break down here is a good short.

GBPCHF - Bearish.  Has been in bearish rising wedge since January.  Could this be the week? Target 1.73 then 1.66 (haha)

EURGBP - Bullish weekly and daily all set to break out of range, buy on dips.

EURUSD Bullish - weekly bullish engulfing, daily took out last weeks swing high although looks set for higher but could bounce off the top and stay in range.

EURJPY Bullish - weekly weak hammer, daily bullish pulled up by stronger euro not weak yen. 

EURCHF Bearish.  Like GBPCHF looks set to break bearish rising wedge. Sell on rallies

USDCHF Bearish - took out 1.06 level, lowest since Dec 08.  But could pull up here, watching Monday.

USDJPY Sideways/Bearish - weekly doji, daily doji in downtrend, last week tweezer top has not followed through strongly. 

USDNOK Bearish - weekly and daily bearish, new lows, sell on rallies

Copper (HGV09) - Bullish but in area of 07 lows and looking for a lower high or weekly price action to short here.  Could be a very nice short setting up ...
Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly doji, daily bearish LL, LH's.  Needs to break long term bearish rising wedge (channel).  Sell on rallies.
Sugar (SBV09) Sideways in uptrend, weekly IB, daily bull flag forming.  Wait for break of weekly IB 
Cocoa (CCZ09) - Bullish, weekly bullish engulfing covers 5 weeks prices, Needs to break and retest 3000 to get me long, or price action to short off that level.
Wheat (ZWZ09) Bearish  but approaching possible double bottom.  Would sell a retest of $50
Corn (ZcZ09) - Bullish, weak hammer and bounce off double bottom, waiting to sell rally.
Soy Beans (ZSX09) - Bullish Weekly bullish hammer in downtrend.  Waiting to sell with price action a retest of  1000 level but could retrace to 1100.  Short term long is interesting ...
Coffee (KCZ9) - Bearish pullback in slow moving uptrend.  Wait for price action to buy.
Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Bullish in downtrend, Strong pullback after new lows ... waiting for resistance at 50 or 55 to short
Live Cattle (LEV09) - Bearish, weekly LH & LL's, pullback in downtrend.  Daily shooting star then two IB's.  Looks a good short.

Friday

After a night of storms and no internet all day its time to examine the carnage of my trades. What a night in Toronto, tornadoes, trees down everywhere, 600 houses with no roofs, 200 houses no more and a lot of people with no power.
Very frustrating ... Thanks to KillPhil for the warnings and "Max Leverage" for the text message updates including candle descriptions

Crude's failed breakout south followed by a breakout north makes it look all set for $85. Indices look all set to go north and S&P 1120 (50Fib level) looks inevitable.

USDJPY banked 50% 93.45 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY closed balance 155.10 (+0.1%)
CADJPY stopped out BE
EURAUD stopped out balance (-0.5%)
USDJPY stopped out balance (-0.5%)
Crude short stopped out (-1.0%)
Gold stopped out (-1.0%)
Silver stopped out (-0.5%)

I have shorted my equity curve a bit this week.
Balance for the day -1.9%
Balance for week -4.33%
Sydney this week -1.48%
Still open:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (currently well up)

Thursday 20 August

A quiet morning of commodity chart study for me ...
Correlation between fundamentals and price action appears to have died (look at crude yesterday or the indices) so time to focus on the price.

AUDJPY stopped out (-1%)
GBPJPY balance stopped out (-0.5%)
EURAUD short 1.7125, stop 1.7149 - addition
GBPCHF short 1.7638, stop 1.7670
GBPJPY short 155.50, stop 156.00
USDJPY short 94.20, stop 94.45, 1hr IB
EURAUD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF banked 50% 3xR 1.7542 (+1.5%)
USDCAD short 1.0925, stop 1.0975, break of daily BEOB
Crude short 73.00, stop 73.50, support break, 1hr IB
USDCAD banked 1.o875 (+1.0%) - like this lower, need better entry

Asian session:
CADJPY short 86.50, stop 87.10

I'm even for the day and have the following open positions:
EURAUD short 1.7218
GOLD short 942.50
SILVER short 14.115
Crude short 73.00
USDJPY short 94.20
GBPCHF short 1.7638
GBPJPY short 1.5550

Wednesday 19 August

I am going to have to seriously rethink my strategy in this chop.
While the markets are like this I think if I have profitable shorts from Asian & London sessions I will close them before the NY session. There does not seem to be any point in trying to hold them for swings and giving it all back.


EURUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD short 1.4118, stop 1.4158
GBPJPY short 155.85, stop 156.35
AUDJPY short 77.80, stop 78.30
Cable short 1.6483, stop 1.6523
EURGBP stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY banked 50% 3xR 154.36 (+1.5%)
Crude short 70.20, stop 70.90, 4hr IB
EURUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
Crude tailed then topped at open (-1.0%)
Cable closed 1.6420 (+1.57%)

For the day -0.93%
Open positions:
EURAUD short 1.7218
AUDJPY short 77.80
GBPJPY short 155.85
GOLD short 942.50
SILVER short 14.115

Tuesday August 18

Turnaround Tuesday ... the day I find out if all my Monday trades are wrong. So far just looks like retracements but would not be the first Tuesday everything reversed on me and I am left going the wrong way.
I want to short NZDUSD or AUDUSD here, they are at those levels, a 4hr IB gets me in ... just waiting to see what is what and what UK news does to my short sterling trades.
Silver and Gold are setting up nicely too.
My Sydney long yen trades look ugly with USDJPY trading above Friday's close and the XXXJPY's having retraced all of yesterdays moves.

GBPCHF stopped out by UK news (-1.0%)
GBPUSD balance stopped out (-0.5%)
Silver short 14.115, stop 14.215
EURGBP short 85.80, stop 86.10, 1hr IB
EURUSD short 1.4106, stop 1.4151, 1hr IB
GBPJPY short 1.5618, stop 156.68
Crude short 68.95, stop 69.45
Crude stopped out (-1.0%) Bollox this trade was all wrong
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)

Total -3.5%
Open positions:
EURAUD short 1.7218
EURGBP short 85.80
EURUSD short 1.4106
GOLD short 942.50
SILVER short 14.115
EURJPY short 134.05 - Sydney
CADJPY short 85.77 - Sydney
---------
Have just wasted too much time today giving baths to 3 naughty labradors sprayed by a skunk this morning. Will be a while before anyone has bedroom privileges around here. Skunk is no more. Back to trading.
---------

Monday 17 August

Everything moved overnight and dollar crosses / Crude are approaching last weeks highs/lows ... SnP approaching Friday's lows ... Going to try a cheeky short on cable and see if the others break or hold.

GBPUSD short 1.6420, stop 1.6460
GOLD short 942.50, stop 947.50 - break of trendline & last week lows
GBPCHF short 1.7670, stop 1.7710 - break and retest last week lows
Crude (Oct) short 68.65, stop 69.15 - break of Friday lows
AUDUSD short 0.8188, stop 0.8220 1hrDIBS
GBPUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.63 (+1.5%)
EURAUD short 1.7218, stop 1.7258 1hr DIBS
AUDUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
EURAUD banked 50% @3xR 1.7098 (+1.5%)
Crude stopped out (-1.0%)

Total +2.0%

Sydney Trade orders, Sunday 16 August

GBPJPY ... Long 156.63, stop 155.83 ... Short 155.83, stop 156.63
EURJPY ... Long 134.93, stop 134.05 ... Short 134.05, stop 134.93
CADJPY ... Long 86.54, stop 85.77 ... Short 85.77, stop 86.54
USDJPY ... Long 94.95, stop 94.52 ... Short 94.52, stop 94.95

All short orders filled
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%) Tuesday
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%) Tuesday
CADJPY closed 17:00GMT Weds 133.77 (+0.3%)
EURJPY closed 17:00GMT Weds 85.60 (+0.22%)

Weekly results so far in %:
GBPJPY ... 2.75 ... 3.1 .. -1.0
EURJPY ... 0.75 ... 2.4 ... 0.22
CADJPY ... 2.15 ... 3.49 .. 0.3
USDJPY ... 0 ...... 1.98 .. -1.0
SYDNEY TOTAL 5.65 . 10.97 . -1.48

Sunday 16 August

I have not looked forward to a weekly open like this for ages, to see which way we go ... Signs of possible reversal to strong dollar and yen everywhere, although still counter-trend some of the weeklies look really good. Although everything looks to me like it is topping out, it also has room to poke up again, especially stocks.

Crude - WTI September contract closes on Wednesday and could be a volatile few days.
I am a complete muppet for closing this trade on Thursday night and letting myself get shaken out :( Still in a consolidation range but I am bearish and will trade October contract.

GOLD - weekly bearish continuation, daily has lower highs. Looking for short entries ... possibly price action or retest of 950 level or a break of the daily trendline.

USD - overall longer term trend is still weak dollar but short term I am looking to buy USD. Best looking pairs are GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD. Least favourite are USDCHF and NZDUSD (what is NZD doing up there?) AUDUSD is into support and too closely tied to indices. USDNOK looks set to break 6.00 but will trade it on paper only.

JPY - Yen looks really strong, what is good for the USD looks even better for the JPY. Might stay away from the USDJPY as looking as too volatile. Best looking crosses GBPJPY (off 158, target 150) EURJPY (looking for a break of 133 to 129, & break of 129 to 120) CADJPY looks good too. Will pass on NZDJPY and not sure about AUDJPY.

Crosses: I also like EURAUD short, GBPCHF short, AUDNZD short.

Indices: I am going to pass, too high to buy and no price action to short yet. USD looks set to rally no matter what indices do.

Commodities: If the dollar continues to rally then I like coffee short on break of weekly IB, Soybeans short, Lean hogs short (re-test of $50 or $55) and Live cattle / feeder cattle short on break of weekly IB's. Watching Copper for more signs of reversal, bounced off Dec07 lows and fib level.

Weekend antidote

There is no wind here. I am planning a trip back to Anguilla for some kiting lessons.
This is Savannah Bay on the east end of the island, my favourite beach. In two months I hardly ever saw anyone on the beach unless it was a Sunday and they were a local. Its a huge semi circle undeveloped bay with a couple of miles of sand backed by seagrape covered dunes, you have to drive down a couple of miles of bumpy track to get there. There is one shack there called "Nats Palm Grove" where 6 customers is busy and if you order the lobster the fisherman brings it round in a boat and including drinks and johnny cakes it costs less than a couple of beers cost at home. Yet blackberry and internet work there, good ole "Cable and Wireless" and the British Empire.
A real hermit's paradise.

If only I could do this haha (OK I know he is not the best but compared to me ...) anyway the point is the beach.
More Anguilla kiting: http://www.youtube.com/user/sixsix663
And the school I am going to: http://www.tropical-paradise-kitesurfing.com/about-us.html

Thursday 13 August

Robert Prechter (Elliott Wave guy) says the dollar has hit a major bottom and:
"The Dollar Sentiment Index for the Dollar Index reports just 3% bulls among traders, an extreme level only five times in the past 20 years, usually near an important low," Prechter wrote on Aug. 5. "The last time we saw readings like this was March-July 2008, just before the dollar soared." In other words, the "short the dollar" trade is overly crowded."
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/298957/Dollar

JAPAN says they will tolerate a stronger Yen ... Yeah right ...:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125009822585426457.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
-------------

CRUDE stopped out of balance of one short (-0.5%)
GOLD stopped out of balance of short (-0.5%)
EURGBP short 0.8600, stop 0.8620 DIBS
CABLE stopped out of balance 1.6604 (+1.0%)
GBPJPY short 159.55, stop 160.05, news trade
CABLE short 1.6595, stop 1.6635
GBPJPY banked 50% 3xR 158.05 (+1.5%)
EURJPY short 136.70, stop 137.10
EURGBP stopped out, I remembered why I hate it (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 71.15, stop 71.55 - addition
CRUDE addition closed 70.75 (+0.1%)
CABLE closed 1.6575 (+0.5%)
EURUSD balance (last Fri) closed 1.4280 (+1.09%)
EURJPY closed 136.250 (1.12%)
GBPJPY closed 158.10 (1.45%)
CRUDE original short (last Fri) closed 70.75 (+1.6%)

I closed all my positions tonight because equities are determined to go up. The bad employment numbers and retail sales effect lasted for an hour today so there is no point in fighting it and I have to recognise my bias is wrong.
Time for a day off. No open positions.

+6.36% for today
And a best ever 21.33% this week BUT more than half of that was because of Sydney EA (10.97%) so ... Mr Big was right ... a black box trades better than I do :)

Wednesday 11 July

I have a lot of trades open so will be watching todays news closely (UK claimants, BoE, CAD trade balance, crude inventories and the biggie FOMC).

GOLD short 946.00, stop 947.00 DIBS - addition
AUDUSD banked 50% @ 3xR 0.8234 (+1.5%)
USDJPY (Sydney) banked 50% @ 3xR 95.33 (+1.5%)
CABLE short 1.6460, stop 1.6510 - addition
GOLD banked 50% @ 3xR 943.00 (+1.5%)
GOLD stopped out balance of addition (-0.5%)
CABLE stopped out of addition (-1%)
COCOA stopped out (-1%)
GBPJPY (Sydney) balance 300 pip trailing stop hit 158.96 (+1.6%)
EURJPY (Sydney) balance 250 pip trailing stop hit 136.57 (+0.9%)
CADJPY (Sydney) balance 150 pip trailing stop hit 87.43 (+1.99%)
USDJPY (Sydney) balance 150 pip trailing stop hit 96.62 (+0.48%)
GBPJPY short 159.18, stop 159.45
GBPJPY stopped out (-1%)
AUDUSD Stopped out balance (-0.5%)

What an ugly day. Was going to close out these trades but late selling into the close has convinced me to hang on and see where we go as I have already taken some profit out.

Open:
CRUDE short 72.35 & short 70.60
EURUSD short 1.4350
Cable short 1.6664
Gold short 954.75
+5.97% today

Tuesday 11 August

Chinese exports fell 23% in July, so much for green shoots. Buy dollars, sell everything else.
I'm joking Mr Big ... I'm looking at the charts, honest.

Cable short 1.6460, stop 1.6480 (retrace of 1hr BUOB) - addition
Cable addition stopped out (-1.0%)
CADJPY (Sydney) banked 50% @ 3xR 87.96 (+1.5%)
AUDUSD short 83.36, stop 83.70, DIBS (11:00 IB & daily pin)
CRUDE short 70.60, stop 71.10 - addition (4hr IB)
CRUDE banked 50% @ 3xR 79.10 (+1.5%)
EURJPY (Sydney) banked 50% @3xR 135.66 (+1.5%)
COCOA (CCU09) short 2818, stop 2835, DIBS 1hr IB

Open:
CRUDE short 72.35, stop 72.85
EURUSD short 1.4350, stop 1.4370
Cable short 1.6664, stop 1.6694
Gold short 954.75, stop 956.75
GBPJPY Short 162.13, stop 163.12 (EA)
EURJPY Short 137.94, stop 138.70 (EA)
CADJPY Short 89.70, stop 90.28 (EA)
USDJPY Short 97.22, stop 97.85 (EA)
+3.5%

Monday 10 August

All Sydney trades triggered short.

Cable short 1.6664, stop 1.6694, target 1.65
Crude short 70.96, stop 71.25 addition, target 68
Gold short (1hr IB) 954.75, stop 956.75, 1st target 950

Crude banked 50%@ 3xR 70.09 (+1.5%)
Gold banked 50% @ 3xR 94.875 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.6574 (+1.5%)
Crude stopped out 50% balance (-0.5%)
GBPJPY (Sydney) banked 50% @ 3xR 160.150 (+1.5%)

+5.5%

Sydney Trade orders, Sunday 09 August

Big thanks to Trader Hotch for all the coding work he has done for me :) He is a star and I could not have done it without him.
I am adding USDJPY to the pairs this week.

GBPJPY ... Long 163.12, stop 162.13 ... Short 162.13, stop 163.12
EURJPY ... Long 138.70, stop 137.94 ... Short 137.94, stop 138.70
CADJPY ... Long 90.28, stop 89.70 ... Short 89.70, stop 90.28
USDJPY ... Long 97.85, stop 97.22 ... Short 97.22, stop 97.85

Last week results:
EURJPY +0.75% (including 1 losing trade)
CADJPY +2.15%
GBPJPY +2.70%

Friday 07 August NFP

Slept in for NFP ... plus I was moving yesterday.
OK I'm ready for some action

USDCAD long 1.0810, stop 1.0773, DIBS ... hoping for bad CAD employment numbers
EURUSD short 1.4354, stop 1.4388 DIBs
GBPJPY short 159.90, stop 1.6010, selling the 160 level
CRUDE short 71.27, stop 71.77
Well got NFP wrong ...
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD stopped out (+0.5%)
EURUSD stopped out (-0.5%)
Crude stopped out (-1.0%)

CRUDE short 72.35, stop 72.85
EURUSD short 1.4350, stop 1.4370
USDJPY long 95.90, stop 95.40
EURUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.4290 (+1.5%)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 70.85 (+1.5%)
EURGBP short 0.8530, stop 0.8555
USDJPY banked 50% @3xR 97.40 (+1.5%)
CABLE short 1.67150, stop 1.67550
EURGBP closed 0.84890 (+1.64%)
CABLE closed 1.66750 (+1%)
USDJPY balance closed 97.500 (1.6%)

For the day +5.74
Holding Crude & EURUSD shorts over weekend.

+6.1% for the week of which 5.6% was from Sydney trades. Ex Sydney I only made 0.5% for the week. I'm not sure thats very good.

Thursday 06 August

I don't have much time to trade yesterday and today which is annoying as some things look pretty good out there and I am missing them.

Yesterday USDCAD & AUDUSD retested last weeks closing prices and bounced well off them so commodity dollars (including NZD)look strong vs USD. All eyes are on cable, Euro and CHF and the USD looks weak to me (yes I know I have been trying to buy USD for weeks) and even the rising wedge on the daily USDJPY looks bearish. GBP looks strongest of all and I missed another nice step down on EURGBP yesterday.
Gold looks set for a breakout, I like the daily and 4hr IB's and crude looks all set to re-test and maybe take out the previous swing high. Indices holding the levels at big round numbers for a few days is pretty clear they are still only going one way.

Anyway I will watch BOE and Euro announcements today but hopefully a full days trading tomorrow for NFP.

GBPCHF after BoE short 1.8009, stop 1.8049
GBPCHF closed 1.7929 (+2.0%)

I am done, back tomorrow.

Sydney trades close 17:00 GMT on Wednesdays. First week totals:
EURJPY +0.75% (including losing trade)
CADJPY +2.15%
GBPJPY +2.70%

Full Moon

OK ... this is the post that probably gets Mr Big to unsubscribe ... but hang in please. Gann was a mathematician who used astronomy in his trading.

Tomorrow is the GBP rate day and it is also a full moon.
Here is a cable chart with the previous full moons marked as vertical lines:

Ok, so it is not perfect but you see what I am thinking? And its rate day tomorrow.
(And NO, I have not read my horoscope in a very long time.)

Edit:  Updated chart 31 Aug 09

Wednesday 05 August

Slow day not much moving waiting for USA. Going to try and stay out of the chop. I might trade crude, inventories today.

Cable. I had a resting order for long above highs at 1.7025, stop below the IB at 1.6955. Topped and tailed. (-1.0%)

In anticipation of inventories:
Crude short 71.25, stop 71.75, target 69.75
Crude banked 50% @ 3xR 69.75 (+1.5%)
Crude balance stopped out (-0.5%)

+1% for the day

Tuesday 04 August

Good Morning Mr Big ...
I'm starting my day saying I will to do more DIBS.

USDCAD took the little IB that straddled the close price long (-1.0%)
CADJPY Sydney trade closed 50% @ 3xR (+1.5%)
GBPJPY Sydney trade closed 50% @ 3xR (+1.5%)
EURJPY was 12 pips short to make 3R
EURGBP short 0.8483, stop 0.8498 BEOB
EURGBP stopped out (-1%)
It's obviously turnaround Tuesday. Futures are red. Risk off again ...
OR ... we could just be rangebound again waiting for this week's employment numbers :(
USDCAD long 1.0693, stop 1.0675
USDCAD stopped out again (-1.0%)

The market is sideways and I am damaging my P&L. Time to step aside. Another day off, will come back and check Sydney at the close.

Monday 03 August

Slow start to the week. I just know as soon as I write that it's going to go boom.

EURUSD short 1.4220, stop 1.4260, Targets 1.41180
EURGBP short 0.8507, stop 0.8520, target 0.8200
USDJPY stopped out balance of Fri short 94.995 (+0.5%)
EURUSD stopped out (-1%)
EURGBP banked 50% @ 3xR 0.8468 (+1.5%)
EURGBP stopped out balance (-0.5%)

Sydney is running OK and I am long all three. EURJPY was triggered short first for a loss (-1%). Thank doG for sydney because my read on the Jpy's was wrong. Pretty sad my EA and first venture into auto trading is doing better than me.

Although Sydney is doing well I am -0.5% for the day.
I'm stopping today at 11:00AM (4PM London) and will come back and check the US close in 5-6 hrs time. This is a BIG deal for me. I'm off to play tennis.

Sydney trades

My first adventure in automatic trading, Sydney is the name of my EA. Orders:

GBPJPY
short 157.98, stop 159.02, TP 50% @154.86, 50% trailing stop
long 159.02, stop 157.98, TP 50% @162.14, 50% trailing stop
CADJPY
short 87.64, stop 88.11, TP 50% @86.23, 50% trailing stop
long 88.11, stop 87.64, TP 50% @89.52, 50% trailing stop
EURJPY
short 134.76, stop 135.52, TP 50% @132.48, 50% trailing stop
long 135.52, stop 134.76, TP 50% @137.80, 50% trailing stop

Analysis

I was going to write a great long analysis this week but instead here is short version. Its NFP week and maybe some volatility!

All the dollar crosses are right at resistance / support and look set to break out for more dollar weakness. I am not buying the breaks for a few reasons. None of them made new lows / highs except for AUDUSD. Otherwise they are all still within the ranges.
EURUSD although it looks very bullish has a weekly hanging man candle. Cable is a double top and is banging its head on the weekly 20ma and a weekly level from October, USDCAD is at a double bottom, NZDUSD is also at a strong weekly level and fib level, etc.
The dollar index, although it broke the support level is now almost on a 61.8 fib level of the 2008/2009 rally and this is the point of no return.
If the dollar pairs break out then I am wary of fakeout breakouts like cable a month ago and I will not buy the breakouts but will wait for a retest of the levels or a dibs trade. Otherwise I am looking for price action to buy the dollar again. Of all of them I like the USDCAD best for R:R long.

I am bearish XXXJPY crosses and waiting for price action to short them. If USDCAD holds support then I like CADJPY best off a descending daily trendline from December 07. EURCAD is a weekly hammer also signalling possibly some CAD weakness.

I am selling EURGBP on rips, which could mean back up to retest the trendline it broke. Here is the daily chart:

and a weekly chart to put it in context:


I am watching EURCHF for price action to long as it is on a major ascending trendline and also watching GBPCHF to long as they are all correlated with EURGBP.

I am flat crude after the reversal Thu/Fri but watching to see which way the dollar goes. I am also flat silver and gold seeing what the dollar will do.

Happy Sunday Kite Boys ..

I liked this song called Lullaby by Tom Frager, who is a big time champion surfer. Band is called Gwayav'

S&P

A snippet from twitter:
In 1938, the S&P 500 rallied 46% in 147 days before crashing 85%.
So far, the S&P 500 has rallied 46% from the low of March 6th and today (Saturday 01 Aug) is 147 days from that day.

Earnings. The reported numbers for earnings are operating PE which shows that PE's for the S&P are in the 20's. But if you look at "as reported PE's" then the S&P is trading in the 700's. That seems mad to me. Why should I pay a premium because a company cut costs. The data is all here on the S&P's own website (line 47, col H) : http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS

OK after today I will stop thinking about this.
Robotrader will be back on Monday.
Back to buying the dips and selling the rips.