Sunday, July 26, 2009


12 inside bars on the daily ...

EURUSD. Still drifting higher in tight range 1.3850-1.42. Weekly is stuck below resistance. Daily inside bar following a large bearish engulfing candle and long wicks at the top of the range suggest start of bearish cycle. A break to the upside suggests 1.47 and then 1.50.

USDCHF. Short term bullish but up against resistance. Stuck in tight range 1.06-1.09, the lower section of a larger consolidation range. Daily broke uptrending support line, and has now pulled up to re-test trendline from below. Weekly candle is a weak hammer and daily is a higher swing low. Short term bullish but up against resistance. Break of support at 1.06 would target 1.04 / 1.0355

GBPUSD. Weekly neutral candle with long wick, consolidating below resistance, in long term bullish flag patterb. Daily is bearish and a possible lower swing high but is sitting on support at 1.6425 and 38.2 fib and a break below key support at 1.6310 would confirm up cycle completed.

EURGBP. Weekly in bearish ascending wedge/flag pattern, but daily is bullish marabuzo - BUOB. Looking to long following clean break of 87. Break of uptrending support line or support level at 8576 gets me short.

AUDUSD. Weekly bullish but long wick below resistance at top of range, daily is IB after three daily doji's the last one a bearish engulfing candle which is still in play. Break of the ascending support line or 80.84 signals uptrend completed. I'm short term bearish, long term bullish.

NZDUSD. Very similar to AUDUSD with daily IB within a bearish outside bar. I am short looking for Thursdays break of uptrending support line or clean break of 65 level.

USDCAD. Weekly bearish but has bounced at double bottom at 1.0780 level. Daily is a bullish hammer on one of my charts and neutral with a long tail on my other one.
I am tentatively long off dbl bottom, but longer term this pair is bearish, the drop to the level was a grinder, not an exhaustion spike and a break of this support level targets 1.06 next.

GBPCHF. Weekly is a second doji in a row, daily is almost a bearish inside bar. Support at weekly 1.75 level has held and needs to break this level for me to continue short.

USDJPY. Is out of step with other JPY pairs. Last weeks weekly inside bar broke long following higher swing low but this week is a doji. Daily inside bar is very small within large bullish marabuzo but is held below strong resistance at 95.30 Daily HH's and HL's suggest upcycle continues.

GBPJPY. Weekly higher low in place, the inside bar broke up last week is followed by doji off strong resistance. Daily inside bar within large bullish marabuzo is held below strong resistance & 38.2 fib. I am short, short term bearish, looking for a continuation lower and another lower high to confirm downtrend but a bullish continuation in equities and a break of this level and the daily descending trendline could mean some big moves and I will be long very fast ...

EURJPY & CHFJPY. Weekly made higher low, and last weeks inside bar broke long to form a neutral continuation bar. Long wick suggests srton resistance. Daily is inside bar within bullish marabuzo but off a strong resistance & fib level. I am short looking for resistance to hold and a LH but as with GBPJPY, a break of resistance and I would be long.

CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY. All three of these pairs broke up through descending resistance lines last week and look bullish. Long wicks Thursday followed by inside bars Friday suggest a pullback to retest the resistance lines from the upside. What happens there will determine if the uptrend continues. The equities will be key.

Dollar Index. Weekly bearish but sitting above the 61.8 fib level and key support. Has not breached low of 01 June at 78.375 and an inside bar Friday followed Thursdays doji. Possibility of a double bottom bounce in a long term bearish pattern.

Gold. Two bullish weeks mane confirmed HL after a LH so on the weekly and daily Gold is coiling up and range is tightening on weekly chart. Daily weak shooting star Thursday followed by inside bar is short term bearish. The break above 950 level and 6-week high Thursday was key for me and I would buy a re-test of that level or sell a break below it. The direction the USD takes is key driver.

Silver. Weekly continued bullish confirming HL and uptrend continues. Friday bullish candle broke the tail of Thursdays weak shooting star (pin). Price broke down through uptrending daily support line and then right back up through it again. I am bullish, targeting 14.500 area / fib level and looking for price action there.

Crude. Crude weekly continued north for second week and HL in place. End of the week broke up through resistance at 66.00 and now at key resistance at 68.00
The direction of the USD and equities on Monday will be key to direction from here but break of the 61.8 fib retracement suggests more up from here.

S&P and indices. Weekly and dailies all bullish. Only the Nasdaq had a small down day Friday. FTSE and Dax broke up through key resistance levels. This market has to consolidate or pullback at some point but no sign in the charts of it happening yet.

Will look at commodities tonight.

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