Sunday, July 19, 2009


Hello Big ...
On my way back home doing some chart analysis ...

EURUSD. Drifting higher in tight range 1.3850-1.42. Possible HL in place but daily IB formed at top of range/channel off 1.42 level which could be strong resistance. Hard to call until it breaks range but a break to the upside suggests 1.50

USDCHF. Stuck in tight range 1.06-1.09 Poss LH in place for short. Broke last weeks low of 1.0750 and found resistance off the underside off 1.08 level. Shorts favoured with target of 1.06 and 1.04 if it can break support.

GBPUSD. Weekly neutral in mid range. Daily bounced off 38.2 fib and 1.6450 level and underside of previous uptrending support line from 18Jun-02Jul. Short term cycle is bearish or sideways within a medium term bullish flag pattern. A rally above Thursdays high at 1.6480 indicates a retest of high at 1.6743. Break below 1.6082 support indicates a retest of support at 1.5801.

EURGBP. Weekly and daily in bearish ascending wedge/flag pattern, but bigger picture indicates consolidation in longer term uptrend. Daily pushed higher but failed to hold level above resistance at 8660 level (prev swing low). Short term pattern is sideways and drifting higher. Looking to long following clean break of 87. Break of uptrending support line or support level at 8576 gets me short.

AUDUSD. Weekly bullish engulfing, daily is IB off resistance at top of downtrending resistance level in range/channel. A second close above the 80 level is bullish but could pullback before continuing higher or remain in bullflag/channel.

NZDUSD. Weekly bullish engulfing, daily is IB off resistance at top of downtrending resistance level in range/channel. I'm watching for AUD and NZD to break the top of these ranges, otherwise they will just retreat within the ranges.

USDCAD. Weekly massive bearish marabuzo, daily second IB at 1.11 level but this level is not a big historical support level. Ib's need to break for direction in this pair for me but could consolidate sideways for a while longer.

GBPCHF. Weekly is a doji after a pullback in a strong uptrend. Daily is bearish but tail suggests it has found support of key weekly 1.75 level. Hammer off that level from 13 July is still in play but LH and LL on daily suggest more downside correction and sterling weakness. Daily close below 1.75 would confirm.

USDJPY. Weekly inside bar has retraced 50% of prev weeks bearish marabuzo. Daily is second IB after pullback in downtrend and resistance at 94.50 weekly level. Great resistance at 50% levels! Daily is making LH & LL, tempts me to sell rallies and this looks like one ...

GBPJPY. Weekly IB after pullback in strong uptrend closed at 61.8 fib level of prev weeks bearish marabuzo. Daily is second hammer, indicating long however daily is making LH and LL indicating sterling weakness and downwards correction is possibly not complete. Strong resistance at fib levels. Mixed signals, I am neutral leaning towards bearish and expect sideways consolidation or drift back to 1.50 level.

EURJPY. Weekly inside bar in downward correction from longer term uptrend. Daily is second hammer like doji. Approaching resistance at 38.2% fib level and underside of prev ascending support line. Candles look bullish but LH and LL on daily give mixed signal. I am neutral leaning towards bearish.

CHFJPY Same as EURJPY. I am neutral

CADJPY. Weekly bullish marabuzo, daily double IB's at 84.50/85.00 resistance and underside of daily ascending trendline. If this pair is going to rollback to the downside this is where it will do it ... however a daily higher high and the bounce off the weekly 50%fib level suggests this pair is still bullish. No long until a break of 85. Failure at 85 says back to 82 for support.

AUDJPY. Weekly sideways (almost an IB) after pullback in uptrend, daily double hammer inside bars suggest bullish but LH and LL on daily and resistance off fib level and previous ascending trendline give mixed signals. I am neutral tending towards bearish.

Dollar Index. Weekly bearish, daily doji / spinner. USD this week has broken key support at 80 & 79.60 level and on its way to retest double bottom 78.80 levels. A pullback up to test resistance now off the 80 level is possible before continuation downwards.

Gold. Weekly bullish in sideways consolidation, daily - Thursdays inside bar broke to the downside and then pulled back up to form a dragonfly doji. Daily has not managed to take out previous swing high and has made lower lows. Until 950 level is broken I am neutral. Weak dollar should mean stronger gold prices.

Silver. Weekly bullish after 5 bearish weeks of pullback in long term uptrend. Daily bullish engulfing. Daily has bounced off 50% fib level after strong correction but remains bearish. Daily ascending trendline has been broken and is about to be retested from below which could give clearer indication of which way ...

Crude. Crude rose end of last week into contract expiration after 4 weeks of downtrend. Weekly sideways bullish, daily bullish continuation stopped 65 level but may continue to test resistance at 66 and 68. I'm looking for a pullback down.

S&P and indices. Weekly massive bullish engulfing. Friday daily inside bar following resistance at 940 level. Has not broken the head level on H&S so still in range with strong overhead resist at 950 ish. A massive rally off the neckline of the H&S might have been stops from those wrongly positioned short, I have noticed pattern failures often produce strong moves.

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