Non Farm Phoey ... Another August week of no change and endless possibilities with lots at key levels, especially European currencies.
USD index is stuck, consolidating sideways between 78 and 79 where it has been for two weeks with no sign of which way it is going to go. Long term the chart is still very bearish but a rally is not out of the question. A break in the USD index of either of those two levels will show the way. If the gold price breakout continues to rise and indices rise then a breakdown of the support in the USD seems more likely.
Indices ... are sideways still. After falling off steeply at the beginning of the week indices rallied going into the holiday weekend despite worse than expected jobs number.
Gold has broken out of 6 month triangle, weekly chart is very bullish, daily is bullish with good inside bar on Friday. Has yet to break the February high and key 1000 psychological level. No indication to short yet ... but a break down of the daily IB would suggest a retest of the the breakout level before a possible move higher. Failure to hold above the breakout level puts gold back in the ranges.
Silver is weekly bullish and daily bullish, it just passed the June 3rd high of 16.25 area on Thursday and Friday pulled back to closed at the level. Bullish price action here suggests a test of resistance at $17.00, but a pullback here is a double top.
AUDUSD weekly strongly bullish (DLHC- double low higher close), daily bullish, has broken out of the 8150-8450 range along with the Gold breakout. Above this level this is a buy on dips ... but I'm watching Gold and the USD index for direction.
AUDJPY Weekly bullish but sideways, daily bullish but at the top of a descending channel and held below 50fib level and 80.00 price. Got good support off the psycho 76 level and Aussie is looking strong all round if gold continues north and Im watching for a breakout of the channel. Looks good to rally.
NZDUSD Weekly bullish hammer, daily is bullish in sideways range in long term uptrend but held below 61.8fib and 69.00. Not a trade at the moment unless it breaks this level or gives a short signal.
NZDJPY Weekly bullish hammer in slight descending wedge / channel, daily bullish but at the top of a descending channel. I am watching for a break of the weekly hammer or price action to short off the top of the channel.
AUDNZD Weekly bullish, daily bullish has been in a two week uptrend but within longer term down trend of daily lower highs and lower lows. Pushing up on strong resistance at 1.24-1.2450 area and 50fib of last swing high/low, I am watching for price action or a possible break up through this level on strong Aussie/gold price.
USDCAD Weekly and daily Bearish but rangebound, despite weakening crude prices. The daily rising wedge pattern is bearish and it looks set to break the ascending support line and 1.08 level but strong support at 1.07
CADJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily is bullish but within downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Price found support off 61.8fib retracement level of last swing high/low and is now at the top of the descending channel. It could very well change trend and rally north here. I am looking for price action to short (none yet) or a breakout north.
EURCAD Weekly bearish shooting star after pullback in downtrend, daily bearish marabuzo, sell on rips.
My advice to myself to short off the 1.58 level last week would have worked really well if only I had taken it ... :(
GBPAUD Very bearish, new lows. Weekly bearish, daily sideways, sell on rallies. Again ... if only I had :(
GBPUSD Weekly bullish retracement after downtrend, daily tweezer bottomed at 1.6112 level, a big weekly SR level. Chart is messy, it breached a support line last week and then climbed above, then broke up from a descending channel but went sideways Friday. Not the best looking trade out there, stuck like the dollar index, I am neutral, and waiting for a breakout for more direction. Weakest of the European currencies.
GPBJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish after downtrend. Broke support line and has come back up to retest. Waiting for price action or a break of the weekly hammer
GBPCHF - Weekly inside bar after strong downtrend, daily has bounced off strong weekly support at 1.71. Chart remains bearish and sell on rips (rallies).
EURGBP - Weekly inside bar, daily has found resistance off weekly level at 88.30. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips.
EURUSD Sideways but Bullish, a weekly doji followed by a ... weekly doji. EUR is bid and strongest of continental currencies, it moves up on USD weakness and sideways on USD strength. Stuck in a range between 1.4180 and 1.4405. Like the USD index it needs to break out and the only way is to trade the range until it does.
EURJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish in downtrend, this has found support at 1.31. Weekly is making higher lows but daily is still in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Need to watch for more direction, could rally from here.
EURCHF Weekly and daily has pulled up in downtrend. Not the best looking trade, it is a sell on rallies back to resistance at 1.50
USDCHF weekly doji, following a weekly doji. Daily bearish but consolidating sideways. Daily descending wedge is bullish and daily candle wicks below the 1.o6 level sugest it could be a base for a move up but no clear direction at the moment.
USDJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish in donwtrend. Looks to have found support above previous low at 91.75 and set to move up from here making a higher low but longer term trend is bearish.
USDNOK Weekly and daily bearish but sideways and rangebound. It has broken the 6 level but support at 5.94 needs to break.
NAT GAS (Oct 09 - NGV9) New weekly low but daily bullish engulfing candle suggests a pullback might be setting up in long downtrend. I would wait and look for price action to sell rallies off old support at 3.2 or 3.6 levels
Copper (HGV09) - Weekly bullish hammer after pullback in uptrend, daily bullish and above 50fib level but still needs to negotiate 3000 level and 07 lows. Buy on dips in anticipation of a break but a daily lower high gets me short.
Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly spinner doji, daily bullish off support at 12280 but still in a tightening wedge. I would short a break of the daily wedge or a breakdown of the weekly rising channel but does not look exciting.
Sugar (SBV09) Weekly big bearish engulfing bar, daily bearish pullback in uptrend. At the moment uptrend is intact and a buy on dips. Need to wait to buy off 20 or 18, or more confirmation that the uptrend is over as ascending trendline is still intact.
Cocoa (CCZ09) - Like the dollar the weekly is sideways and the daily is in a tightening triangle/wedge and needs to breakout. Held below the 3,000 level needs to break that to buy if the uptrend continues. Conservative trade is a break and retest of the 3000 level.
Wheat (ZWZ09) Weekly bearish after rejection from 500 level, daily bearish and at multi year lows. Sell on rallies.
Corn (ZCZ09) - Weekly and daily bearish sitting on 300 level which looks set to break for a retest of the previous low at 290. Sell on rallies or break, anticipating new lows or a possible double bottom at 290.
Soy Beans (ZSX09) - This week gapped below 1000 and kept going. Weekly bearish in 4 month downtrend, daily bearish making lower highs and lower lows. Anticipating retest of previous low at 882 level.
Coffee (KCZ9) - Weekly bullish after pullback in uptrend. Daily bullish off 120 support level. Price looks to be consolidating in a tightening wedge and not a trade for me.
Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Weekly bullish after making new lows at 43 and now trading above 50. Daily bullish but still in downtrend. Not a trade for me here, could be a short setup off support turned resitance at 52.00
Live Cattle (LEV09) - Weekly big bullish engulfing and daily is bullish but sideways off support at 86.00 with stronger support below at 85.50 Weekly still bearish I dont see a trade here yet.