Sunday, September 13, 2009

Charts, analysis

“Another choppy week in FX but with a big drop in the 1 week FX options volatility index it does not look good for a sustained USD breakout or trend and more range trading than momentum trades likely”. Lovely. … The markets seem to be still lurking around major levels. Three rate decisions last week all came with no change, reserved growth forecasts and statements that rates would be held to at least halfway through next year. The SNB however are known for intervention and they report this week …

USD index has found some support off a down trending support level as it drifts slowly to the 76 level and daily candle has closed with a long bottom tail. Vix has risen a little that can mean some bullishness for the USD. It is at the bottom of a downtrending channel so support off the bottom could mean a bounce up here within the channel. The weakest of all the major currencies the dollar lost ground to everything this week and a bounce or some sideways consolidation looks likely.

Indices. Last weeks weekly hammer played out and Indices rose all week to make new highs for the year but closed lower on Friday on profit taking and resistance off the 1050 level in the SnP. The weekly and daily are bullish. Until this trend changes it is a buy on dips. There is some bearish divergence on the daily that might play out though and we get the correction everyone is talking about …

Crude.  I am still bearish crude although it looks that a bull flag could be setting up. It ranged sideways last week with a bearish looking weekly inside bar while the dollar had its pants pulled down and the indices made news highs which is normally bearish for crude. It is falling when the indices fall and the dollar rises and it is going sideways when they rally so I will remain bearish below $72. Daily is a large bearish marabuzo candle, I would add to my short position on rallies below $72 or a break of this candle. Support here off the top of an old resistance line could mean we go back in the sideways range.

Gold has broken out of 6 month triangle, weekly chart is bullish continuation, daily finished the week bullish consolidating around the 1000 level. Support for the dollar this week could cause momentum to stall and gold to take a rest. Not a trade for me unless it breaks out.

Silver is in an uptrend weekly bullish continuation, daily is a shooting star in an uptrend, possibly some profit taking after making new highs for the year. Silver has closed above the 61.8fib retracement from 08 highs and lows. While the uptrend continues it is a buy on dips, or a retest of the 16.230 level it broke through.

AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly bullish continuation, daily made new highs for the year but then fell back to form a weak shooting star. Above this level this is a buy on dips ... but I'm watching Gold and the USD index for direction. Needs to break below 85 for me to change to bearish.

AUDJPY Weekly and daily bearish but range bound its rally and breakout of the channel was short lived and it was dragged back by the yen strength this week. The best looking xxxJPY long and the least attractive xxxJPY short.

NZDUSD Weekly very bullish marabuzo, daily is bullish continuation, now at new highs for the year and broken through the historically big level of 70.00 and trading above the 61.8fib. Buy on dips or a retest of 69.500. Below 69 and it is back in a range and a drop to the 65 area support.

NZDJPY Weekly doji and daily sideways and range bound. Has broken out of the bullflag / channel, daily but held back by yen strength. Needs to break a rising support line to interest me short. Pass.

AUDNZD Weekly bearish engulfing, daily bearish continuation this pair benefited from the RBNZ rate statement and bad AUD employment. It is in a down trending channel and a sell on rallies with major support at 1.20

USDCAD Weekly neutral hammer like candle, daily hammer in a range. CAD is the weakest of the commodity currencies has made a very choppy bounce off the 1.60 support level. I am looking for a medium-term higher low to buy.

CADJPY Weekly bearish, daily bearish marabuzo in a down trending channel this is a sell on rallies. I am looking for this to take out the previous swing low and the 83 level. A higher low here and the longer term uptrend continues.

EURCAD Weekly neutral, daily bullish. In a daily up trending channel with strong resistance above at 1.5840. I would look for price action to sell off 1.58 / 50fib & down trending resistance line.

GBPAUD Weekly hammer off 1.9050 level, daily inside bar after a rally in a strong downtrend. Sell on rallies or a break of the inside bar until the trend changes.

GBPUSD Weekly bullish marabuzo, daily made a weak shooting star off 1.6750 and the monthly 20ma and descending resistance line from July 08 – see chart. The USD is the only currency that GBP has been strong against recently. I think the R:R is good to sell this one and I am looking for price action to short and the upper resistance line to hold.

GPBJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish after downtrend. Broke support line and has come back up to retest. Waiting for price action or a break of the weekly hammer

GBPCHF – Another weekly inside bar in a strong downtrend, daily inside bar after two weeks of consolidating sideways I am looking for this to break down and downtrend to continue. Just have to watch for the SNB this week who love to intervene and tighten up my stops. Chart remains bearish and sell on rips (rallies) but long term trend is up and I am looking for a daily higher low to confirm reversal.

EURGBP – Another weekly inside bar, daily consolidating sideways in strong uptrend. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips or a break of the bullflag. Long term the trend is down and I looking for a daily lower high to confirm reversal.

EURUSD Weekly bullish marabuzo, daily pulled back Friday on possible profit taking. EU is approaching some really good levels for long term short positions. Next resistance is 1.4723, the Dec 08 high, then 1.4871 the Sep 08 high. As a caution - there is significant bearish divergence on the daily chart.

EURJPY, weekly and daily bearish in a down trending channel but still in the middle of a multi week range. I am looking for a drop back to the 125-127 levels.

EURCHF Weekly sideways and daily in a downtrend within a range. It is a sell on rallies back to resistance at 1.50 but beware the SNB this week and this is the pair they like to target.

USDCHF weekly strongly bearish marabuzo, daily bearish this pair blew threw the support at 1.05 to make new lows for the year. Needs to correct to get me in short, I would be patient and look for price action below that 1.0527 area to get short.  Watching for statements by the SNB this week.

USDJPY Weekly and daily bearish marabuzo puts pair at bottom of down trending channel and on the psychological 90.00 level. I am looking for a bounce to sell more but if it does not bounce then next support is 87.15

USDNOK Weekly bearish, daily consolidating sideways in a strong downtrend. Price made new lows and broke the support at 5.94 before pulling back to sit on it. This is a sell on rallies or another break to the downside.

1 comment:

  1. Great analysis too Nic - good to see we are both on the same song-sheet; we'd better 'fade' all our longs and shorts this week then!! LOL