What an ugly, hard to read day in FX.
USDJPY short 89.67 stop 89.92, target 88.30
CRUDE short 67.05, stop 67.35 break of support
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD short 1.4655 stop 1.4675 1hr IB off daily resistance line
USDCAD long 1.0734 stop 1.0694 1hr IB off daily support line
CRUDE short 67.45 stop 67.95 on rising dollar ...
GBPUSD short 1.5999 stop 1.6039 - addition break of 1.60
CRUDE closed 66.45 bounce off rising trendline (+2.0%)
USDCAD stopped out (-1.0%)
Flat today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.5999 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURUSD short 1.4655
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Tuesday 29 September
S&P stalled at the 61.8fib of last weeks hi/lo which does not bode well for the rally continuing today. Eurodollar which normally moves in lockstep lagged badly in yesterdays indices rally but not enough to tempt me to short it yet :)
I am still bearish sterling and crude. I am watching USDCAD & CADJPY which are coming up on a 50 retrace of last weeks weekly marabuzos.
GBPUSD short 1.5918 stop 1.5968 - addition
GBPJPY short 143.21 stop 1.4361 - addition
GBPCHF short 1.6433 stop 1.6468 target 1.6220
USDCAD long 1.0830 stop 1.0805 - 50% retrace of weekly candle
CADJPY short 83.10 stop 83.40 - weekly level and 50fib
CRUDE short 66.83 stop 67.13 target 65
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD short 1.4560 stop 1.4605 DIBS
GBPJPY addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
A reversal spike in sterling I'm now limit down :( stops at breakeven & may as well go back to bed.
EURUSD stopped out BE
USDCAD banked 50% @3xR 1.0905 (+1.5%) finally
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 65.95 (+1.5%)
CRUDE balance stopped out (-0.5%)
CADJPY stopped out BE
USDCAD balance closed 1.0870, support line break (+0.8%)
CRUDE short 66.50 stop 66.90 trying again
CRUDE stopped out again overnight (-1.0%)
-2.2%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
I am still bearish sterling and crude. I am watching USDCAD & CADJPY which are coming up on a 50 retrace of last weeks weekly marabuzos.
GBPUSD short 1.5918 stop 1.5968 - addition
GBPJPY short 143.21 stop 1.4361 - addition
GBPCHF short 1.6433 stop 1.6468 target 1.6220
USDCAD long 1.0830 stop 1.0805 - 50% retrace of weekly candle
CADJPY short 83.10 stop 83.40 - weekly level and 50fib
CRUDE short 66.83 stop 67.13 target 65
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD short 1.4560 stop 1.4605 DIBS
GBPJPY addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
A reversal spike in sterling I'm now limit down :( stops at breakeven & may as well go back to bed.
EURUSD stopped out BE
USDCAD banked 50% @3xR 1.0905 (+1.5%) finally
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 65.95 (+1.5%)
CRUDE balance stopped out (-0.5%)
CADJPY stopped out BE
USDCAD balance closed 1.0870, support line break (+0.8%)
CRUDE short 66.50 stop 66.90 trying again
CRUDE stopped out again overnight (-1.0%)
-2.2%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
Monday, September 28, 2009
Monday 28 September
A wild Asian opening ... Sydney program did not run because the opening candle sizes were over the limit (300 on GJ for example). This morning we have the Merkel bounce in equities, lets see how far it takes us.
Asian session:
SILVER short 15.90, stop 16.15, 4hr inside bar, target 15.00
GBPJPY (addition from 146.37) closed 140.60 (+7.21%)
London:
CRUDE short 65.50 stop 65.90 target 62
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE (24Sep) closed 65.85 (+3.18%)
USDJPY short 89.35 stop 89.65 target 87.00
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
USDJPY short 89.40 stop 89.70 - trying again
GBPCHF short 1.6366 stop 1.6406 target 1.6220
AUDNZD short 1.2131 stop 1.2170 target 1.19
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
AUDNZD stopped out (-1.0%)
I should have stopped trading this morning :(
Asian session:
SILVER short 15.90, stop 16.15, 4hr inside bar, target 15.00
GBPJPY (addition from 146.37) closed 140.60 (+7.21%)
London:
CRUDE short 65.50 stop 65.90 target 62
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE (24Sep) closed 65.85 (+3.18%)
USDJPY short 89.35 stop 89.65 target 87.00
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
USDJPY short 89.40 stop 89.70 - trying again
GBPCHF short 1.6366 stop 1.6406 target 1.6220
AUDNZD short 1.2131 stop 1.2170 target 1.19
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
AUDNZD stopped out (-1.0%)
I should have stopped trading this morning :(
+5.39%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
Cable daily - I have run out of support lines:
Cable daily alternative ... channel?:
Analysis and some charts, 27 September
The much anticipated FOMC statement arrived last week and it was the most positive statement on the economy for a while … The market didn’t like that it was so positive and more importantly that QE was not being increased (as the UK had done) and markets fell following the news. Which just goes to show that the equity rally is supported by tax payer dollars and not green shoots (quelle surprise, sigh).
USD index weekly has followed last weeks doji with a small but bullish engulfing hammer shaped candle which indicates the dollar could put in a rally/correction/consolidation this week. It is still counter trend and the bearish dollar sentiment is still extreme. There could be a choppy counter-trend ride up for the USD as support becomes resistance at 78 and 79.25 but the dollar looks set to take back some ground it lost or at least consolidate above the 76 level.
Crude. Weekly big bearish marabuzo, daily doji consolidation after two days of sharp falls. Crude excess supply and the USD finding it had some muscles after all have pushed crude back below $70 and out of its range for the last 7 weeks. Crude has found support off the $65 level and a 61.8fib at around 64.65. I am holding my short to see if we can break these levels, targeting the previous swing low and $62. The 200day moving average is at $62.30 and below that my target is $58. We could retest the long term support line from the lows that we broke from and the 61.8fib level of the last swing at 70.30 and I would still maintain a bearish outlook. Above $70.30 and back above support line and I revert to bullish and the possible bull flag pattern is looking more and more likely. Until then I am a seller.
Gold - weekly and daily bearish, pullback in uptrend. Failure to hold breakout levels and failed retest of $1000 level on Friday keeps it in the flag consolidation pattern with a retest of the 950 level and trend-line the most likely scenario. I like this counter-trend sell target 950.
Silver has finally broken the 17.00 level but failed to maintain above it and has pulled back hard to $16 support. Daily and weekly strongly bearish and break of daily rising trendline suggesting further correction to longterm trendline support, 50fib at $15.00. Sell on rallies for counter-trend short target 15.00 with a possible bump at 15.750.
AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly long legged doji, daily bearish followed by inside bar pause Friday. Break of the inside bar short and the 0.86 level would mean break of daily support line and further correction to 0.85 /0.8450 countertrend. Going to pass for now and wait for better price action.
AUDJPY – sideways - Weekly bearish but range bound, daily is still rangebound but looks like could break short. Break of 77.50 and daily support line would suggest further correction to 74.00 with a possible bump at 76.00. Sell break of 77.50
NZDUSD – uptrend - Weekly bullish doji made new highs for the year, daily has pulled back slightly but still closed above last weeks highs. Bearish divergence warns of failure but still no indication to short this is still a buy on dips. Pass.
NZDJPY – sideways/uptrend – Weekly made new highs for the year and then pulled back to form a weak shooting star, daily broke out from bullflag and looks to be coming back to re-test breakout point. Still a buy on dips. A break and close below 63 and the uptrend is broken and it is back in the range.
AUDNZD – downtrend – weekly broke bear flag and made bearish marabuzo, daily is a double inside bar suggesting another bear flag setting up. Sell on rallies or a break of the 1.20 level targeting 1.17
USDCAD - sideways - Weekly bullish consolidation in downtrend, daily doji following big bullish marabuzo, this looks set to break a downtrending resistance line. This pair looks set to rally further on dollar strength. Weaker than AUD and NZD this is the best looking commodity dollar to sell. Buy.
CADJPY – Shorter term downtrend – weekly bearish marabuzo, daily strongly bearish has broken support at 83 and a rising daily support line. Sell on a retest of 83 or a break of the low.
EURCAD – uptrend – Weekly bullish marabuzo has broken out of 6 month bull flag. Buy on dips with a long term target of 1.75 level.
EURNZD - downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation after a weekly doji pause. Daily dropped then consolidated sideways. Sell a break of the lows at 2.0280 or on rallies but beware ... the 2.000 level looks inevitable but it will bounce there.
NZDCHF - same as EURNZD but opposite ... its a buy.
GBPAUD – downtrend – weekly big bearish marabuzo, daily bearish continuation. Price is approaching all time low levels and risk of reversal is high but no indication of it yet. Sell on rallies until the trend changes.
GBPUSD – down trend – weekly bearish marabuzo, daily bearish marabuzo this is a sell on rallies, my targets 1.575 / 1.55 / 1.50
GPBJPY – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation of a double top pattern, daily bearish continuation in a downtrend has broken boig weekly support level. Sell on rallies targeting the 1.38 level next.
GBPCHF – downtrend – Big bearish weekly marabuzo, daily bearish continuation this pair has broken 50 fib level and my next target is 1.50, it’s a sell.
AUDCHF - Sideways - Weekly and daily bearish but rangebound pause in longer term uptrend. A possible double top. I am waiting to see if this double top plays out or the uptrend continues
EURGBP – uptrend – Weekly and daily charts are strongly bullish. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips.
EURUSD – uptrend - Weekly doji after making new highs for the year this pair is now at an important Gann level. Daily is consolidating but no clear price action to short yet, although there is strong bearish divergence on the daily. Price action could entice me into a counter-trend short targeting 1.4450 SR level in the hope it would turn into a longer term move. Pass for now.
EURJPY – sideways - weekly bearish engulfing and daily strongly bearish but needs to break a rising daily trend line to tempt me short. I’m going to pass for now.
EURCHF - sideways – Pass. I have had a sell stop order just below 1.50 and price is drifting down to test it so let’s see …
USDCHF – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation, daily made new lows for the year and then consolidated sideways. I do not like to short at these levels without a correction and would prefer a higher low to take a counter trend long looking for a corrective bounce to the 1.055 levels and go from there. Pass for now.
USDJPY – downtrend – Weekly massive bearish marabuzo, daily strongly bearish I like this short targeting 87.00 Sell.
USDNOK – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation, daily sideways consolidation after again making new lows for the year. I will pass as not sure this is the best trade if the dollar rallies.
USDSGD - downtrend - weekly doji after making new lows for the year, daily consolidation sideways this could be making a base for a correction. Pass for me and wait for price action at .143 and the descending resistance line from early July.
USDZAR - sideways, long term downtrend - weekly sideways, daily consolidating of strong weekly support level. I like this long if the indices correct down, the dollar rallies and it breaks the descending resistance line from 17 August. The spread is ugly but the R:R looks really good so I am watching and waiting ...
Indices. Funny how sentiment changes. For weeks all I have heard is the market needs to pullback a bit so the bulls can buy some more and now we pulled back a bit (literally to the first level of support) and suddenly everyone says the next big drop could be here. (It could be but the price action does not say that yet). The S&P & Dow made new highs last week and have closed above last weeks open and above the August highs so resistance could become support here and after three days of pullbacks in the indices last week (the most it has done for a while) it could very well rally Monday. The trend is still strongly bullish, and not a short for me until there is some better price action.
Crude. Weekly big bearish marabuzo, daily doji consolidation after two days of sharp falls. Crude excess supply and the USD finding it had some muscles after all have pushed crude back below $70 and out of its range for the last 7 weeks. Crude has found support off the $65 level and a 61.8fib at around 64.65. I am holding my short to see if we can break these levels, targeting the previous swing low and $62. The 200day moving average is at $62.30 and below that my target is $58. We could retest the long term support line from the lows that we broke from and the 61.8fib level of the last swing at 70.30 and I would still maintain a bearish outlook. Above $70.30 and back above support line and I revert to bullish and the possible bull flag pattern is looking more and more likely. Until then I am a seller.
Gold - weekly and daily bearish, pullback in uptrend. Failure to hold breakout levels and failed retest of $1000 level on Friday keeps it in the flag consolidation pattern with a retest of the 950 level and trend-line the most likely scenario. I like this counter-trend sell target 950.
Silver has finally broken the 17.00 level but failed to maintain above it and has pulled back hard to $16 support. Daily and weekly strongly bearish and break of daily rising trendline suggesting further correction to longterm trendline support, 50fib at $15.00. Sell on rallies for counter-trend short target 15.00 with a possible bump at 15.750.
AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly long legged doji, daily bearish followed by inside bar pause Friday. Break of the inside bar short and the 0.86 level would mean break of daily support line and further correction to 0.85 /0.8450 countertrend. Going to pass for now and wait for better price action.
AUDJPY – sideways - Weekly bearish but range bound, daily is still rangebound but looks like could break short. Break of 77.50 and daily support line would suggest further correction to 74.00 with a possible bump at 76.00. Sell break of 77.50
NZDUSD – uptrend - Weekly bullish doji made new highs for the year, daily has pulled back slightly but still closed above last weeks highs. Bearish divergence warns of failure but still no indication to short this is still a buy on dips. Pass.
NZDJPY – sideways/uptrend – Weekly made new highs for the year and then pulled back to form a weak shooting star, daily broke out from bullflag and looks to be coming back to re-test breakout point. Still a buy on dips. A break and close below 63 and the uptrend is broken and it is back in the range.
AUDNZD – downtrend – weekly broke bear flag and made bearish marabuzo, daily is a double inside bar suggesting another bear flag setting up. Sell on rallies or a break of the 1.20 level targeting 1.17
USDCAD - sideways - Weekly bullish consolidation in downtrend, daily doji following big bullish marabuzo, this looks set to break a downtrending resistance line. This pair looks set to rally further on dollar strength. Weaker than AUD and NZD this is the best looking commodity dollar to sell. Buy.
CADJPY – Shorter term downtrend – weekly bearish marabuzo, daily strongly bearish has broken support at 83 and a rising daily support line. Sell on a retest of 83 or a break of the low.
EURCAD – uptrend – Weekly bullish marabuzo has broken out of 6 month bull flag. Buy on dips with a long term target of 1.75 level.
EURNZD - downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation after a weekly doji pause. Daily dropped then consolidated sideways. Sell a break of the lows at 2.0280 or on rallies but beware ... the 2.000 level looks inevitable but it will bounce there.
NZDCHF - same as EURNZD but opposite ... its a buy.
GBPAUD – downtrend – weekly big bearish marabuzo, daily bearish continuation. Price is approaching all time low levels and risk of reversal is high but no indication of it yet. Sell on rallies until the trend changes.
GBPUSD – down trend – weekly bearish marabuzo, daily bearish marabuzo this is a sell on rallies, my targets 1.575 / 1.55 / 1.50
GPBJPY – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation of a double top pattern, daily bearish continuation in a downtrend has broken boig weekly support level. Sell on rallies targeting the 1.38 level next.
GBPCHF – downtrend – Big bearish weekly marabuzo, daily bearish continuation this pair has broken 50 fib level and my next target is 1.50, it’s a sell.
AUDCHF - Sideways - Weekly and daily bearish but rangebound pause in longer term uptrend. A possible double top. I am waiting to see if this double top plays out or the uptrend continues
EURGBP – uptrend – Weekly and daily charts are strongly bullish. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips.
EURUSD – uptrend - Weekly doji after making new highs for the year this pair is now at an important Gann level. Daily is consolidating but no clear price action to short yet, although there is strong bearish divergence on the daily. Price action could entice me into a counter-trend short targeting 1.4450 SR level in the hope it would turn into a longer term move. Pass for now.
EURJPY – sideways - weekly bearish engulfing and daily strongly bearish but needs to break a rising daily trend line to tempt me short. I’m going to pass for now.
EURCHF - sideways – Pass. I have had a sell stop order just below 1.50 and price is drifting down to test it so let’s see …
USDCHF – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation, daily made new lows for the year and then consolidated sideways. I do not like to short at these levels without a correction and would prefer a higher low to take a counter trend long looking for a corrective bounce to the 1.055 levels and go from there. Pass for now.
USDJPY – downtrend – Weekly massive bearish marabuzo, daily strongly bearish I like this short targeting 87.00 Sell.
USDNOK – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation, daily sideways consolidation after again making new lows for the year. I will pass as not sure this is the best trade if the dollar rallies.
USDSGD - downtrend - weekly doji after making new lows for the year, daily consolidation sideways this could be making a base for a correction. Pass for me and wait for price action at .143 and the descending resistance line from early July.
USDZAR - sideways, long term downtrend - weekly sideways, daily consolidating of strong weekly support level. I like this long if the indices correct down, the dollar rallies and it breaks the descending resistance line from 17 August. The spread is ugly but the R:R looks really good so I am watching and waiting ...
Friday, September 25, 2009
Friday 25 September
Up all night with the smallest little girl puppy (a losing battle) so no trading for me today.
Will wait and see how the weekly candles close and come up with a plan for next week.
USDCAD looks interesting, testing a big weekly resistance line from March highs, it would be good to see that one break out North.
It's been a massive week thanks to Sterling and Crude. If only every week was like this (it's not) ...
GBPJPY (addition) banked 50% @3xR 145.17 (+1.5%)
+1.5% today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 and 146.37 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
CRUDE short 68.40 (24 Sep), no target yet
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday update - we are doing fine thanks :)
Will wait and see how the weekly candles close and come up with a plan for next week.
USDCAD looks interesting, testing a big weekly resistance line from March highs, it would be good to see that one break out North.
It's been a massive week thanks to Sterling and Crude. If only every week was like this (it's not) ...
GBPJPY (addition) banked 50% @3xR 145.17 (+1.5%)
+1.5% today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 and 146.37 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
CRUDE short 68.40 (24 Sep), no target yet
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Thursday 24 September
FOMC was pretty positive comments but seems the market was not that impressed.
I am not inspired so will probably just sell some sterling and some crude
USDJPY short 90.70 stop 90.95 - daily IB break, target 90
GBPJPY short 148.45 stop 148.85 target 145.50
GBPUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.6294 (+1.5%)
+6.6%
Open Positions:
Cable daily - breakout
I am not inspired so will probably just sell some sterling and some crude
USDJPY short 90.70 stop 90.95 - daily IB break, target 90
GBPJPY short 148.45 stop 148.85 target 145.50
GBPUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.6294 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 147.25 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short 68.40 stop 68.80 - target lows at 67
GBPCHF short 1.6680 stop 1.6730 break of yesterdays low
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 67.20 (+1.5%)
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF banked 50% @3xR 1.6530 (+1.5%)
GBPCHF closed 1.6520 (+1.6%)
Asian session:
GBPJPY short 146.37 stop 146.77 - addition target 143
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 67.20 (+1.5%)
USDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF banked 50% @3xR 1.6530 (+1.5%)
GBPCHF closed 1.6520 (+1.6%)
Asian session:
GBPJPY short 146.37 stop 146.77 - addition target 143
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep)
GBPJPY short 148.45 and 146.37
CRUDE short 68.40
GBPJPY short 148.45 and 146.37
CRUDE short 68.40
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Wednesday 23 September
Waiting for the BoE MPC notes, FOMC and crude inventories (crude inventories are my favourite) ...
USDJPY banked 50% @3xR 90.80 (+1.5%)
USDJPY closed balance 91.10 (+0.75%)
GBPAUD closed balance 1.8730 (+0.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6425 stop 1.6460, 1hr bearish engulfing off 50fib last swing
GBPCHF (20Aug) closed last 25% @1.6775 - break of daily IB (+6.74%)
CRUDE short 70.95 stop 71.45 break of $71 level
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 69.45 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE balance banked 68.95 (+2.0%)
GBPUSD short 1.6399 stop 1.6434 - trying again
This daily support line on crude that is breached goes back to the February lows ....
+11.99 %
Open Positions:
USDJPY banked 50% @3xR 90.80 (+1.5%)
USDJPY closed balance 91.10 (+0.75%)
GBPAUD closed balance 1.8730 (+0.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6425 stop 1.6460, 1hr bearish engulfing off 50fib last swing
GBPCHF (20Aug) closed last 25% @1.6775 - break of daily IB (+6.74%)
CRUDE short 70.95 stop 71.45 break of $71 level
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 69.45 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE balance banked 68.95 (+2.0%)
GBPUSD short 1.6399 stop 1.6434 - trying again
This daily support line on crude that is breached goes back to the February lows ....
+11.99 %
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399
Did you want to see my puppies?
OK but bare nipples ... you have been warned!
4 boys and 2 girls, a nice 6x return
Friday ...
Sad update but we are down to five babies. I worked on the little guy really hard for 24 hrs but some things just are not meant to be.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Puppies today
No trading for me today.
My dog is expecting puppies later in the week. I woke up this morning to find she had spent the night nesting in my bed and has decided she is having her puppies there, today. That's not going to happen, as soon as the vets opens we are off for a C-section and hopefully back later with some healthy chocolate labrador babies.
She is a good traders dog, she knows I did not want to miss the excitement of FOMC tomorrow.
GBPUSD (17Sep) closed 1.6270, break of daily hammer (+2.04%)
GBPAUD (18Sep) banked 50% @3xR 1.8610 (+1.5%)
USDJPY short 91.40 stop 91.60 targets 90.10 / 89.60 / 88.50
I know I said I would not trade but I could not resist USDJPY, a break of Mondays daily candle.
+3.54%
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPAUD short 1.8790 (18 Sep)
USDJPY short 91.40
USDJPY 4hr chart
Bull flag breakouts today ...
S&P 4hr
4hr EURUSD 4hr
My dog is expecting puppies later in the week. I woke up this morning to find she had spent the night nesting in my bed and has decided she is having her puppies there, today. That's not going to happen, as soon as the vets opens we are off for a C-section and hopefully back later with some healthy chocolate labrador babies.
She is a good traders dog, she knows I did not want to miss the excitement of FOMC tomorrow.
----------------
GBPUSD (17Sep) closed 1.6270, break of daily hammer (+2.04%)
GBPAUD (18Sep) banked 50% @3xR 1.8610 (+1.5%)
USDJPY short 91.40 stop 91.60 targets 90.10 / 89.60 / 88.50
I know I said I would not trade but I could not resist USDJPY, a break of Mondays daily candle.
+3.54%
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPAUD short 1.8790 (18 Sep)
USDJPY short 91.40
Bull flag breakouts today ...
S&P 4hr
Monday, September 21, 2009
Monday 21 September
Dollar looks to have a little fight left this morning. Sterling is still very weak ...
GBPCHF short 1.6715 stop 1.6755 - addition
CRUDE short 71.95 stop 72.35, first target 70.75
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 70.75 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY (17Sep) balance stopped out 149.05 (+0.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6165 1.6195 DIBs 1hr IB
GOLD short 998.20 stop 1002.70, 4hr IB
EURUSD short 1.4635 stop 1.4675, 4hr IB, first target 1.4515
GBPUSD (today) stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GOLD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE closed 69.95 (+2.5%)
+0.5%
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPUSD short 1.6515 (17Sep)
GBPAUD short 1.8790 (18 Sep)
Crude 4hr ascending channel (Bear flag?)
GBPCHF short 1.6715 stop 1.6755 - addition
CRUDE short 71.95 stop 72.35, first target 70.75
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 70.75 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY (17Sep) balance stopped out 149.05 (+0.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6165 1.6195 DIBs 1hr IB
GOLD short 998.20 stop 1002.70, 4hr IB
EURUSD short 1.4635 stop 1.4675, 4hr IB, first target 1.4515
GBPUSD (today) stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GOLD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE closed 69.95 (+2.5%)
+0.5%
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPUSD short 1.6515 (17Sep)
GBPAUD short 1.8790 (18 Sep)
Sydney Trade orders, Sunday 20 September
Sydney trade orders
GBPJPY long 148.65 stop 147.95, short 147.95 stop 148.05
EURJPY long 134.60 stop 134.10, short 134.10 stop 134.60
CADJPY long 85.55 stop 85.12, short 85.12 stop 85.55
All orders triggered long
CADJPY long stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY long 148.65 stop 147.95, short 147.95 stop 148.05
EURJPY long 134.60 stop 134.10, short 134.10 stop 134.60
CADJPY long 85.55 stop 85.12, short 85.12 stop 85.55
All orders triggered long
CADJPY long stopped out (-1.0%)
Analysis and some charts
Crude. Weekly is bullish but range bound, the daily has rejected the 73.50 level and closed the week above my 72 level. There is the possibility of a bigger bull flag break out and retest setting up. However crude is vulnerable to any strengthening in the dollar this week which would cause it to fall off. It lagged other commodities in every dollar rally last week and has been falling hard on dollar strength. I am watching for a retest of $70
Gold put in a weekly doji with the high 6 pips short of the December high. Daily is in a bullish stair climb with no indication to short yet but the weekly candle is a sign of indecision, possibly a reversal in the making. The would be an Evenig Star reversal pattern in Japanese candlesticks. Failure to break this high keeps it in the flag consolidation pattern with a retest of the 950 level looking more likely. Waiting for more information from here.
Silver has finally broken the 17.00 level but failed to maintain above it although it is now firmly in the congestion range from 2008. Weekly is an indecisive doji whilst the daily pattern remains a bullish stairclimb. The dollar will determine which way it goes from here. I will sit out and wait for more information.
AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly bullish continuation, daily made new highs for the year but then fell back to find support on previous resistance. Looks all set for the next run up. This is still a buy on dips with no indication to short yet … I am watching for price action at fib level at 0.9032 if reached …
AUDJPY – sideways - Weekly bullish but range bound, daily is coiling up in a tightening wedge and needs to break out to tempt me either way. The big 50fib level is at 80 and has held as good resistance this far and I would not go long into this level.
NZDUSD – uptrend - Weekly bullish continuation, made new yearly highs then pulled back to key weekly SR level. Daily is in a bullish stair climb. Bearish divergence warns of failure but no indication to short yet. A close below 69.00 and it is back in a range and a possible drop to the 65 area support.
NZDJPY – uptrend – Weekly and daily are bullish and has broken out of a bullish descending wedge and is above 38.2fib with targets all set for 66.00, it’s a buy. Short term support is at 64 and a break below 63 and the uptrend is broken and it is back in the range.
AUDNZD – downtrend – weekly bearish engulfing was followed by bearish weekly inside bar. Daily is sideways in wedge I would short a break of the weekly candle with a first target of 1.20 and then I am looking for 1.17
USDCAD – downtrend - Weekly bearish engulfing bar made new lows for the year, daily inside bar following a shooting star after a pullback in a downtrend. This pair has been very choppy but the trend is clear. I would only buy this now on a daily higher low. Until then it is a sell and looks set to retest 1.06 and then 1.0330 which is a multi year SR level and 61.8 fib. It’s a sell until the signal changes.
CADJPY – long term uptrend, medium term downtrend - weekly is bullish but sideways, daily made a dbl bottom and then rose in continuation of the longer term trend. Looks as though it has broken out of a bullish descending wedge pattern I really like this long ... it is a buy for me on a break of 86 SR level. EURCAD – medium term downtrend, longer term uptrend - Weekly doji off descending upper resistance line that goes back to December highs, daily shooting star could be putting in a lower high. The price action I was looking for to sell off 1.58 / 50fib & down trending resistance line has happened and like this short to perhaps 1.50 level. The long term trade here is a break out of this wedge back to the 1.75 level and I will be watching for a break.
GBPAUD – downtrend – weekly big bearish marabuzo, daily bearish continuation. Price is approaching all time low levels and risk of reversal is high but no indication of it yet. Sell on rallies until the trend changes.
GBPUSD – down trend – weekly bearish marabuzo, daily bearish marabuzo this is a sell on rallies to retest the bottom of the wedge at 1.60 If the head and shoulders patterns succeeds then the pattern projects back to 1.50. This is a sell on rallies but could encounter choppy consolidation.
GPBJPY – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation of a double top pattern, daily bearish continuation in a downtrend. Sell on rallies. I am looking for a break of 1.468- neckline support targeting the 1.38 level next. Thank you, no need to gift wrap. A break up through the down-trending resistance line from the dbl top would target a retest of 153.25 highs.
GBPCHF – downtrend – Big bearish weekly marabuzo, daily bearish continuation this pair is closing in on possible support and my first target of 1.66 area and 50 fib level. Chart remains bearish and sell on rips (rallies) but long term trend is up and I am looking for a daily higher low or price action at the 50fib point.
EURUSD – uptrend - Weekly bullish continuation, daily sideways consolidation. EU has passed the Dec 08 high at 1.4723 and the next level is 1.4871 the Sep 08 high and 1.4850 is a 100% fib extension. There is significant bearish divergence on the daily chart but no indication to short yet. Price action could entice me into a counter-trend short targeting 1.43 SR level in the hope it would turn into a longer term move.
EURJPY – sideways - weekly bullish engulfing and daily bullish inside bar but range bound and no clear direction yet. Has broken a down trending resistance line in place since the beginning of August and looks bound for 1.3613 highs but not a convincing trade for me.
EURCHF - sideways – I don’t know why I look at this, I have not traded it since last Autumn. It has been trapped in the same wedge since last October. I have had a sell stop order just below 1.50 for months but it’s never going to happen. Pass.
USDCHF – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation, daily bearish inside bar at new lows for the year. I do not like to short at these levels without a correction and would prefer a higher low to take a counter trend long looking vfor a corrective bounce to the 1.07 levels and go from there.
USDJPY – downtrend – Weekly bullish inside bar, daily inside bar in bullish correction of longer term downtrend. I remain bearish until 91.80 is re-tested but could correct all the way prev swing high at 93.30 and still be bearish so awaiting price action to sell again.
USDNOK – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation, daily sideways. A break of the descending resistance line from early July would get me long counter-trend for a corrective bounce, targeting 6.14 and then 6.20-6.27 areas. Until then this is a sell on rallies or another break to the downside.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Friday 18 September
Poor old Sterling what a tough week, the WSJ now thinks the pound could be a new carry trade possibility.
Selling the pound has helped my PnL a lot this week.
Might finish early today, I have never had much luck on triple witching days.
Dollar index looks like it has some traction this morning but is has hit previous support / resistance. The rising trendline needs to hold but a rising wedge is ... bearish.
GBPUSD (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 1.6335 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short 72.45 stop 72.85 - countertrend target 71.50
GBPCHF short 68.50, stop 68.80 - DIBS break of 50day range
GBPAUD short 1.8790 stop 1.8850 - break of 1.88 support
GBPCHF (today) stopped out on good PSNB #s (-1.0%)
CRUDE closed 72.25 (+0.5%) - no point in being short, not going anywhere
+1.0% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPUSD short 1.6515 (17Sep)
GBPJPY short 149.55 (17Sep)
GBPAUD short 1.8790
Cable (daily chart).
I am targeting the bottom of the wedge and 38.2fib level at the big 1.60 number. Then look out below.
Selling the pound has helped my PnL a lot this week.
Might finish early today, I have never had much luck on triple witching days.
GBPUSD (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 1.6335 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short 72.45 stop 72.85 - countertrend target 71.50
GBPCHF short 68.50, stop 68.80 - DIBS break of 50day range
GBPAUD short 1.8790 stop 1.8850 - break of 1.88 support
GBPCHF (today) stopped out on good PSNB #s (-1.0%)
CRUDE closed 72.25 (+0.5%) - no point in being short, not going anywhere
+1.0% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPUSD short 1.6515 (17Sep)
GBPJPY short 149.55 (17Sep)
GBPAUD short 1.8790
Cable (daily chart).
I am targeting the bottom of the wedge and 38.2fib level at the big 1.60 number. Then look out below.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Thursday 17 September
I had a too "tired to trade" morning this morning and I am particularly stupid when I am too tired. Anyhow it looks like a profit taking day setting up so I plan to sell some crude and try and not lose all my gains shorting cable (again).
GBPAUD (14Sep) closed balance 1.8880 (+4%)
CRUDE short 72.55, stop 72.85 - countertrend, 1st target 71.50
GBPUSD short 1.6515 stop 1.6575 - looking for break of 1.64
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD short 1.0630, stop 1.0675 1hr bearish engulfing
USDCAD stopped out (-1%)
GBPJPY short 149.55 stop 150.05
+2% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPUSD short 1.6515
GBPJPY short 149.55
GBPAUD (14Sep) closed balance 1.8880 (+4%)
CRUDE short 72.55, stop 72.85 - countertrend, 1st target 71.50
GBPUSD short 1.6515 stop 1.6575 - looking for break of 1.64
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD short 1.0630, stop 1.0675 1hr bearish engulfing
USDCAD stopped out (-1%)
GBPJPY short 149.55 stop 150.05
+2% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPUSD short 1.6515
GBPJPY short 149.55
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Wednesday 16 September
Dollar weakness is continuing and AUDUSD, EURUSD and USDCHF retesting the new highs/lows set yesterday and all set to make new ones. December high of 1.4720 in EURUSD keeps me out. Gold and commodities all on a rip.
Cable is a tempting short off 1.65 but the dollar weakness might keep me out.
USDCAD short 1.0709 stop 1.0727, target 1.0635
Aargh .. did I really just sell into that support. I am a dingbat.
GBPCHF (20Aug trade) banked 25% @ 1.70 (+4.98%)
GBPCHF swap charges (-0.03%)
GBPUSD short 1.6475 stop 1.6505 target 1.63
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD short 1.6507 stop 1.6532, 1st target 1.63
USDCAD closed 1.0690 - bad trade into support (+1.05 %)
USDJPY (31Aug) closed 90.30 - bottom of channel (+3.0%)
GBPUSD banked 50% @3xR 1,6432 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY stopped out balance 150.15 (+1.0%)
GBPUSD stopped out balance (-0.5%)
+10% for the day
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 (20Aug)
GBPAUD short 1.9280 (14Sep)
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Tuesday 15 September
Turnaround Tuesday, not my favourite day. Can't see anything I want to buy or sell or anything at a level I would want to buy it or sell it at yet.
Update: Thanks Merv ;)
EURUSD short 1.4591 stop 1.4622 DIBs 1hr IB
GBPJPY short 151.15, stop 151.65 4hr shooting star @50fib
EURUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE Nov short 69.95 stop 70.20, selling $70 (1/2 stake)
CRUDE stopped out (-0.5%)
CRUDE Nov short 69.95 stop 70.20 selling $70 (1/2 stake)
GBPAUD (Mon) banked 50% @3xR 1.9130 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6447 stop 1.6477 DIBs 1hr IB
GOLD (Mon) stopped out BE - not my smartest trade this week
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 149.65 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD DIBs stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE (today) stopped out again (-0.5%)
CRUDE (31 Aug) closed balance 70.10 (+3.5%)
I closed crude because dollar index is at new lows and Brent contract rolls over today and there seems to be a bit of a short squeeze going on.
+3.5% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638
USDJPY short 93.30
GBPAUD short 1.9280
GBPJPY short 151.15
Update: Thanks Merv ;)
EURUSD short 1.4591 stop 1.4622 DIBs 1hr IB
GBPJPY short 151.15, stop 151.65 4hr shooting star @50fib
EURUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE Nov short 69.95 stop 70.20, selling $70 (1/2 stake)
CRUDE stopped out (-0.5%)
CRUDE Nov short 69.95 stop 70.20 selling $70 (1/2 stake)
GBPAUD (Mon) banked 50% @3xR 1.9130 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6447 stop 1.6477 DIBs 1hr IB
GOLD (Mon) stopped out BE - not my smartest trade this week
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 149.65 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD DIBs stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE (today) stopped out again (-0.5%)
CRUDE (31 Aug) closed balance 70.10 (+3.5%)
I closed crude because dollar index is at new lows and Brent contract rolls over today and there seems to be a bit of a short squeeze going on.
+3.5% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638
USDJPY short 93.30
GBPAUD short 1.9280
GBPJPY short 151.15
Monday, September 14, 2009
Monday 14 September 2009
GOLD short 999.30 stop 103.30, break of 1000 level
AUDUSD short 85.60 stop 85.83, DIBS 1hr IB
USDCAD long 1.0855 stop 1.0835 DIBS 1hr IB
GBPUSD short 1.6582 stop 1.6627, break of 66 support
AUDUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPAUD short 1.9280 stop 1.9330 break of daily IB
GBPCHF (10Sep) banked 50% @3xR 1.7178 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF (10Sep) banked balance off resistance 1.7178 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6575 stop 1.6605 - trying again
CHFJPY (Friday) short stopped out 87.75 (+0.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out - again (-1.0%)
GBPJPY (Friday) short stopped out 151.04 (+1%)
Today was hard work ... +0.5%
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638
USDJPY short 93.30
CRUDE short 72.13
GBPAUD short 1.9280
GOLD short 999.30
GBPAUD daily
AUDUSD short 85.60 stop 85.83, DIBS 1hr IB
USDCAD long 1.0855 stop 1.0835 DIBS 1hr IB
GBPUSD short 1.6582 stop 1.6627, break of 66 support
AUDUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPAUD short 1.9280 stop 1.9330 break of daily IB
GBPCHF (10Sep) banked 50% @3xR 1.7178 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF (10Sep) banked balance off resistance 1.7178 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD short 1.6575 stop 1.6605 - trying again
CHFJPY (Friday) short stopped out 87.75 (+0.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out - again (-1.0%)
GBPJPY (Friday) short stopped out 151.04 (+1%)
Today was hard work ... +0.5%
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638
USDJPY short 93.30
CRUDE short 72.13
GBPAUD short 1.9280
GOLD short 999.30
Sydney Trade orders, Sunday 13 September
Sydney trade orders
GBPJPY long 151.15 stop 150.25, short 150.25 stop 151.15
EURJPY long 132.25 stop 131.45, short 131.45 stop 132.25
CADJPY long 84.30 stop 83.45, short 83.45 stop 84.30
All short orders triggered
GBPJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY shorts stopped out (-1.0%)
All long orders triggered Monday
EURJPY closed 133.57 ( +1.65%) 17:00 GMT Weds
GBPJPY long stopped out Tues (-1.0%)
CADJPY long closed 85.05 (+0.88%)
Weekly results so far in %:
GBPJPY ... +2.75 ... +3.1 .. -1.0 ... +2.44 ... -1.0 ... -1.32 ... -2.0
EURJPY ... +0.75 ... +2.4 ... +0.22 .. +0.41 ... -1.0 ... +0.7 ... +0.65
CADJPY ... +2.15 ... +3.49 .. +0.3 ... -2.0 ... +2.69 .. -1.0 ... -0.12
USDJPY ... - ...... +1.98 .. -1.0 ... - ... -
TOTAL ... +5.65 ... +10.97 . -1.48 . +0.85 . +0.69 .. -1.62 ... -1.47
GBPJPY long 151.15 stop 150.25, short 150.25 stop 151.15
EURJPY long 132.25 stop 131.45, short 131.45 stop 132.25
CADJPY long 84.30 stop 83.45, short 83.45 stop 84.30
All short orders triggered
GBPJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY shorts stopped out (-1.0%)
All long orders triggered Monday
EURJPY closed 133.57 ( +1.65%) 17:00 GMT Weds
GBPJPY long stopped out Tues (-1.0%)
CADJPY long closed 85.05 (+0.88%)
Weekly results so far in %:
GBPJPY ... +2.75 ... +3.1 .. -1.0 ... +2.44 ... -1.0 ... -1.32 ... -2.0
EURJPY ... +0.75 ... +2.4 ... +0.22 .. +0.41 ... -1.0 ... +0.7 ... +0.65
CADJPY ... +2.15 ... +3.49 .. +0.3 ... -2.0 ... +2.69 .. -1.0 ... -0.12
USDJPY ... - ...... +1.98 .. -1.0 ... - ... -
TOTAL ... +5.65 ... +10.97 . -1.48 . +0.85 . +0.69 .. -1.62 ... -1.47
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Charts, analysis
“Another choppy week in FX but with a big drop in the 1 week FX options volatility index it does not look good for a sustained USD breakout or trend and more range trading than momentum trades likely”. Lovely. … The markets seem to be still lurking around major levels. Three rate decisions last week all came with no change, reserved growth forecasts and statements that rates would be held to at least halfway through next year. The SNB however are known for intervention and they report this week …
USD index has found some support off a down trending support level as it drifts slowly to the 76 level and daily candle has closed with a long bottom tail. Vix has risen a little that can mean some bullishness for the USD. It is at the bottom of a downtrending channel so support off the bottom could mean a bounce up here within the channel. The weakest of all the major currencies the dollar lost ground to everything this week and a bounce or some sideways consolidation looks likely.
Indices. Last weeks weekly hammer played out and Indices rose all week to make new highs for the year but closed lower on Friday on profit taking and resistance off the 1050 level in the SnP. The weekly and daily are bullish. Until this trend changes it is a buy on dips. There is some bearish divergence on the daily that might play out though and we get the correction everyone is talking about …
Crude. I am still bearish crude although it looks that a bull flag could be setting up. It ranged sideways last week with a bearish looking weekly inside bar while the dollar had its pants pulled down and the indices made news highs which is normally bearish for crude. It is falling when the indices fall and the dollar rises and it is going sideways when they rally so I will remain bearish below $72. Daily is a large bearish marabuzo candle, I would add to my short position on rallies below $72 or a break of this candle. Support here off the top of an old resistance line could mean we go back in the sideways range.
Gold has broken out of 6 month triangle, weekly chart is bullish continuation, daily finished the week bullish consolidating around the 1000 level. Support for the dollar this week could cause momentum to stall and gold to take a rest. Not a trade for me unless it breaks out.
Silver is in an uptrend weekly bullish continuation, daily is a shooting star in an uptrend, possibly some profit taking after making new highs for the year. Silver has closed above the 61.8fib retracement from 08 highs and lows. While the uptrend continues it is a buy on dips, or a retest of the 16.230 level it broke through.
AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly bullish continuation, daily made new highs for the year but then fell back to form a weak shooting star. Above this level this is a buy on dips ... but I'm watching Gold and the USD index for direction. Needs to break below 85 for me to change to bearish.
AUDJPY Weekly and daily bearish but range bound its rally and breakout of the channel was short lived and it was dragged back by the yen strength this week. The best looking xxxJPY long and the least attractive xxxJPY short.
NZDUSD Weekly very bullish marabuzo, daily is bullish continuation, now at new highs for the year and broken through the historically big level of 70.00 and trading above the 61.8fib. Buy on dips or a retest of 69.500. Below 69 and it is back in a range and a drop to the 65 area support.
NZDJPY Weekly doji and daily sideways and range bound. Has broken out of the bullflag / channel, daily but held back by yen strength. Needs to break a rising support line to interest me short. Pass.
AUDNZD Weekly bearish engulfing, daily bearish continuation this pair benefited from the RBNZ rate statement and bad AUD employment. It is in a down trending channel and a sell on rallies with major support at 1.20
USDCAD Weekly neutral hammer like candle, daily hammer in a range. CAD is the weakest of the commodity currencies has made a very choppy bounce off the 1.60 support level. I am looking for a medium-term higher low to buy.
CADJPY Weekly bearish, daily bearish marabuzo in a down trending channel this is a sell on rallies. I am looking for this to take out the previous swing low and the 83 level. A higher low here and the longer term uptrend continues.
EURCAD Weekly neutral, daily bullish. In a daily up trending channel with strong resistance above at 1.5840. I would look for price action to sell off 1.58 / 50fib & down trending resistance line.
GBPAUD Weekly hammer off 1.9050 level, daily inside bar after a rally in a strong downtrend. Sell on rallies or a break of the inside bar until the trend changes.
GBPUSD Weekly bullish marabuzo, daily made a weak shooting star off 1.6750 and the monthly 20ma and descending resistance line from July 08 – see chart. The USD is the only currency that GBP has been strong against recently. I think the R:R is good to sell this one and I am looking for price action to short and the upper resistance line to hold.
GPBJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish after downtrend. Broke support line and has come back up to retest. Waiting for price action or a break of the weekly hammer
GBPCHF – Another weekly inside bar in a strong downtrend, daily inside bar after two weeks of consolidating sideways I am looking for this to break down and downtrend to continue. Just have to watch for the SNB this week who love to intervene and tighten up my stops. Chart remains bearish and sell on rips (rallies) but long term trend is up and I am looking for a daily higher low to confirm reversal.
EURGBP – Another weekly inside bar, daily consolidating sideways in strong uptrend. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips or a break of the bullflag. Long term the trend is down and I looking for a daily lower high to confirm reversal.
EURUSD Weekly bullish marabuzo, daily pulled back Friday on possible profit taking. EU is approaching some really good levels for long term short positions. Next resistance is 1.4723, the Dec 08 high, then 1.4871 the Sep 08 high. As a caution - there is significant bearish divergence on the daily chart.
EURJPY, weekly and daily bearish in a down trending channel but still in the middle of a multi week range. I am looking for a drop back to the 125-127 levels.
EURCHF Weekly sideways and daily in a downtrend within a range. It is a sell on rallies back to resistance at 1.50 but beware the SNB this week and this is the pair they like to target.
USDCHF weekly strongly bearish marabuzo, daily bearish this pair blew threw the support at 1.05 to make new lows for the year. Needs to correct to get me in short, I would be patient and look for price action below that 1.0527 area to get short. Watching for statements by the SNB this week.
USDJPY Weekly and daily bearish marabuzo puts pair at bottom of down trending channel and on the psychological 90.00 level. I am looking for a bounce to sell more but if it does not bounce then next support is 87.15
USDNOK Weekly bearish, daily consolidating sideways in a strong downtrend. Price made new lows and broke the support at 5.94 before pulling back to sit on it. This is a sell on rallies or another break to the downside.
USD index has found some support off a down trending support level as it drifts slowly to the 76 level and daily candle has closed with a long bottom tail. Vix has risen a little that can mean some bullishness for the USD. It is at the bottom of a downtrending channel so support off the bottom could mean a bounce up here within the channel. The weakest of all the major currencies the dollar lost ground to everything this week and a bounce or some sideways consolidation looks likely.
Indices. Last weeks weekly hammer played out and Indices rose all week to make new highs for the year but closed lower on Friday on profit taking and resistance off the 1050 level in the SnP. The weekly and daily are bullish. Until this trend changes it is a buy on dips. There is some bearish divergence on the daily that might play out though and we get the correction everyone is talking about …
Gold has broken out of 6 month triangle, weekly chart is bullish continuation, daily finished the week bullish consolidating around the 1000 level. Support for the dollar this week could cause momentum to stall and gold to take a rest. Not a trade for me unless it breaks out.
Silver is in an uptrend weekly bullish continuation, daily is a shooting star in an uptrend, possibly some profit taking after making new highs for the year. Silver has closed above the 61.8fib retracement from 08 highs and lows. While the uptrend continues it is a buy on dips, or a retest of the 16.230 level it broke through.
AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly bullish continuation, daily made new highs for the year but then fell back to form a weak shooting star. Above this level this is a buy on dips ... but I'm watching Gold and the USD index for direction. Needs to break below 85 for me to change to bearish.
AUDJPY Weekly and daily bearish but range bound its rally and breakout of the channel was short lived and it was dragged back by the yen strength this week. The best looking xxxJPY long and the least attractive xxxJPY short.
NZDUSD Weekly very bullish marabuzo, daily is bullish continuation, now at new highs for the year and broken through the historically big level of 70.00 and trading above the 61.8fib. Buy on dips or a retest of 69.500. Below 69 and it is back in a range and a drop to the 65 area support.
NZDJPY Weekly doji and daily sideways and range bound. Has broken out of the bullflag / channel, daily but held back by yen strength. Needs to break a rising support line to interest me short. Pass.
AUDNZD Weekly bearish engulfing, daily bearish continuation this pair benefited from the RBNZ rate statement and bad AUD employment. It is in a down trending channel and a sell on rallies with major support at 1.20
USDCAD Weekly neutral hammer like candle, daily hammer in a range. CAD is the weakest of the commodity currencies has made a very choppy bounce off the 1.60 support level. I am looking for a medium-term higher low to buy.
CADJPY Weekly bearish, daily bearish marabuzo in a down trending channel this is a sell on rallies. I am looking for this to take out the previous swing low and the 83 level. A higher low here and the longer term uptrend continues.
EURCAD Weekly neutral, daily bullish. In a daily up trending channel with strong resistance above at 1.5840. I would look for price action to sell off 1.58 / 50fib & down trending resistance line.
GBPAUD Weekly hammer off 1.9050 level, daily inside bar after a rally in a strong downtrend. Sell on rallies or a break of the inside bar until the trend changes.
GPBJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish after downtrend. Broke support line and has come back up to retest. Waiting for price action or a break of the weekly hammer
GBPCHF – Another weekly inside bar in a strong downtrend, daily inside bar after two weeks of consolidating sideways I am looking for this to break down and downtrend to continue. Just have to watch for the SNB this week who love to intervene and tighten up my stops. Chart remains bearish and sell on rips (rallies) but long term trend is up and I am looking for a daily higher low to confirm reversal.
EURGBP – Another weekly inside bar, daily consolidating sideways in strong uptrend. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips or a break of the bullflag. Long term the trend is down and I looking for a daily lower high to confirm reversal.
EURUSD Weekly bullish marabuzo, daily pulled back Friday on possible profit taking. EU is approaching some really good levels for long term short positions. Next resistance is 1.4723, the Dec 08 high, then 1.4871 the Sep 08 high. As a caution - there is significant bearish divergence on the daily chart.
EURJPY, weekly and daily bearish in a down trending channel but still in the middle of a multi week range. I am looking for a drop back to the 125-127 levels.
EURCHF Weekly sideways and daily in a downtrend within a range. It is a sell on rallies back to resistance at 1.50 but beware the SNB this week and this is the pair they like to target.
USDCHF weekly strongly bearish marabuzo, daily bearish this pair blew threw the support at 1.05 to make new lows for the year. Needs to correct to get me in short, I would be patient and look for price action below that 1.0527 area to get short. Watching for statements by the SNB this week.
USDJPY Weekly and daily bearish marabuzo puts pair at bottom of down trending channel and on the psychological 90.00 level. I am looking for a bounce to sell more but if it does not bounce then next support is 87.15
USDNOK Weekly bearish, daily consolidating sideways in a strong downtrend. Price made new lows and broke the support at 5.94 before pulling back to sit on it. This is a sell on rallies or another break to the downside.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Friday 11 September 2009
Fridays are not my best trading day usually but if I have a good day today then it will be official, I trade better on holiday, which means I need to work on a calmer, more stress free environment back home to trade in.
CHFJPY short 87.95, stop 88.15, break of hourly and daily pin tails
GBPJPY short 151.70, stop 152.03, DIBS 1hr IB
CRUDE short (Thurs), stopped out balance (-0.5%)
CHFJPY banked 50% @3xR 87.35 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short (again) 72.13, stop 72.53, 1st target 71.00
GBPJPY short banked 50% @3xR 150.71 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short banked 50% @3xR 70.93 (+1.5%)
+4% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 and 1.7322
USDJPY short 93.30
CHFJPY short 87.95
GBPJPY short 151.70
CRUDE short 72.13
CHFJPY short 87.95, stop 88.15, break of hourly and daily pin tails
GBPJPY short 151.70, stop 152.03, DIBS 1hr IB
CRUDE short (Thurs), stopped out balance (-0.5%)
CHFJPY banked 50% @3xR 87.35 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short (again) 72.13, stop 72.53, 1st target 71.00
GBPJPY short banked 50% @3xR 150.71 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short banked 50% @3xR 70.93 (+1.5%)
+4% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 and 1.7322
USDJPY short 93.30
CHFJPY short 87.95
GBPJPY short 151.70
CRUDE short 72.13
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Thursday 10 September
Lots of news today ... BoE, UK house prices, USD and CAD trade balances, CAD rate statement, USD employment, crude inventories and Opec meeting.
The indices look strong, the Dax has rallied 20 points in the last hour before the open.
I am tempted to short Crude at this 72.35 level
GBPCHF short 1.7198, stop 1.7219 - DIBS & break of 1.72 level
CRUDE short 72.33, stop 72.54, poss dbl top
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF (Tues) banked 50% @3xR 1.7195 (+1.5%)
GOLD short 994.50, stop 997.50
AUDUSD short 0.8595, stop 0.8615 target 0.8470
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 71.70 (+1.5%)
GOLD banked 50% @3xR 988.55 (+1.5%)
GBPCHF (Tues) stopped out balance 1.7315 (-0.5%)
GBPCHF (Mon) stopped out balance 1.7325 (+0.5%)
GBPCHF short 1.7322, stop 1.7370, 1hr IB
AUDUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GOLD stopped out of balance (-0.5%)
+2% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 and 1.7322
USDJPY short 93.30
CRUDE short 72.33
Beachtrader - more food porn for you, scroll down: http://cougartrades.blogspot.com/2009/09/away.html
Dollar index weekly support - the USD could have a bounce here.
The indices look strong, the Dax has rallied 20 points in the last hour before the open.
I am tempted to short Crude at this 72.35 level
GBPCHF short 1.7198, stop 1.7219 - DIBS & break of 1.72 level
CRUDE short 72.33, stop 72.54, poss dbl top
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF (Tues) banked 50% @3xR 1.7195 (+1.5%)
GOLD short 994.50, stop 997.50
AUDUSD short 0.8595, stop 0.8615 target 0.8470
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 71.70 (+1.5%)
GOLD banked 50% @3xR 988.55 (+1.5%)
GBPCHF (Tues) stopped out balance 1.7315 (-0.5%)
GBPCHF (Mon) stopped out balance 1.7325 (+0.5%)
GBPCHF short 1.7322, stop 1.7370, 1hr IB
AUDUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GOLD stopped out of balance (-0.5%)
+2% today
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638 and 1.7322
USDJPY short 93.30
CRUDE short 72.33
Beachtrader - more food porn for you, scroll down: http://cougartrades.blogspot.com/2009/09/away.html
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Wednesday 09 September
It's 09/09/09 .... woo
Dollar Index:
I am not convinced we will have another weak dollar day tomorrow, hence no dollar positions except a short USDJPY. The dollar index could very easily pullback up and retest the breakout point (hourly chart). Stocks have not broken out the way dollar and gold has and treasuries remain supported. Even if the USD does continue to fall off there are some key weekly support levels it has to get through first (shown on chart).
Also crude is now at the top of a bearish channel and needs to continue up from here to change my view. I will close my long if we fall below $70.
GBPCHF short 1.7285, stop 1.7315 - addition
CRUDE long 71.10, stop 70.60 - addition
USDCAD short 1.07890, stop 1.0815 1hr bearish engulfing bar
CRUDE long (today) closed in full 72.10 (+2.0%)
USDCAD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE long (Tues) closed 71.35 (+4.25%)
+5.25% for the day
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638, 1.7365 + 1.7285
USDJPY short 93.30
I am still bearish crude - I will look for a short entry in the morning
Dollar Index:
I am not convinced we will have another weak dollar day tomorrow, hence no dollar positions except a short USDJPY. The dollar index could very easily pullback up and retest the breakout point (hourly chart). Stocks have not broken out the way dollar and gold has and treasuries remain supported. Even if the USD does continue to fall off there are some key weekly support levels it has to get through first (shown on chart).
GBPCHF short 1.7285, stop 1.7315 - addition
CRUDE long 71.10, stop 70.60 - addition
USDCAD short 1.07890, stop 1.0815 1hr bearish engulfing bar
CRUDE long (today) closed in full 72.10 (+2.0%)
USDCAD stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE long (Tues) closed 71.35 (+4.25%)
+5.25% for the day
Open positions:
GBPCHF short 1.7638, 1.7365 + 1.7285
USDJPY short 93.30
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Tuesday 08 September
Gold has just gone through $1000 this morning, this will not be happy news for the poor old USD, it is kicking EURUSD up from its daily wedge.
Might be time to take the rest off my crude short, I will watch the indices to see.
CRUDE banked 25% short (31Aug) @68.50 (+3.08%)
CRUDE Banked 25% balance short (31Aug) @ 68.70 (+2.92%) - wedge breakout
CRUDE long 68.80, stop 68.50 - triangle breakout
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 69.70 (+1.5%)
USDJPY (31Aug) short banked 50%@ 92.07 dbl bottom (+1.25%)
USDCAD (Mon) banked balance 1.0750, trendline break (+1.54%)
GBPCHF (Mon) short banked 50% @3xR 1.7245 (+1.5%)
+11.79% today
Open trades
GBPCHF short 1.7638 & 1.7365
USDJPY short 93.30
CRUDE long 68.80
Might be time to take the rest off my crude short, I will watch the indices to see.
CRUDE banked 25% short (31Aug) @68.50 (+3.08%)
CRUDE Banked 25% balance short (31Aug) @ 68.70 (+2.92%) - wedge breakout
CRUDE long 68.80, stop 68.50 - triangle breakout
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 69.70 (+1.5%)
USDJPY (31Aug) short banked 50%@ 92.07 dbl bottom (+1.25%)
USDCAD (Mon) banked balance 1.0750, trendline break (+1.54%)
GBPCHF (Mon) short banked 50% @3xR 1.7245 (+1.5%)
+11.79% today
Open trades
GBPCHF short 1.7638 & 1.7365
USDJPY short 93.30
CRUDE long 68.80
Monday, September 7, 2009
Monday 07 September
Asian session:
GBPCHF short 1.7365, stop 1.7405, 4hr IB
AUDJPY long 79.43, stop 79.25 DIBS
USDCAD short 1.0833, stop 1.0860, lower support line break
BRENT short 67.10, stop 67.35
BRENT stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD banked 50% @3xR 1.0752 (+1.5%)
AUDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
USD index has broken support line to the downside. Im watching to see if if spikes back up again or if we continue. Next big support is 77.500
-0.5% today
Open trades
GBPCHF short 1.7638 & 1.7365
CRUDE short 72.20
USDJPY short 93.30
USDCAD short 1.0833
GBPCHF short 1.7365, stop 1.7405, 4hr IB
AUDJPY long 79.43, stop 79.25 DIBS
USDCAD short 1.0833, stop 1.0860, lower support line break
BRENT short 67.10, stop 67.35
BRENT stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD banked 50% @3xR 1.0752 (+1.5%)
AUDJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
-0.5% today
Open trades
GBPCHF short 1.7638 & 1.7365
CRUDE short 72.20
USDJPY short 93.30
USDCAD short 1.0833
Sydney Trade orders, Sunday 06 September
Sydney trade orders
GBPJPY long 153.06 stop 152.10, short 152.10 stop 153.06
EURJPY long 133.52 stop 132.68, short 132.68 stop 133.52
CADJPY long 86.05 stop 85.30, short 85.30 stop 86.05
All orders triggered long
GBPJPY stopped out Monday (-1.0%)
GBPJPY triggered short Monday
CADJPY short stopped out Tuesday (-1%)
EURJPY long closed 17:00 weds 134.11 (+0.7%)
GBPJPY short closed 17:00 weds 152.41 (-0.32%)
An ugly week for the XXXJPY crosses so not a good week for Sydney. -1.62%
Weekly results so far in %:
GBPJPY ... +2.75 ... +3.1 .. -1.0 ... +2.44 ... -1.0 ... -1.32
EURJPY ... +0.75 ... +2.4 ... +0.22 .. +0.41 ... -1.0 ... +0.7
CADJPY ... +2.15 ... +3.49 .. +0.3 ... -2.0 ... +2.69 .. -1.0
USDJPY ... - ...... +1.98 .. -1.0 ... - ... -
TOTAL ... +5.65 ... +10.97 . -1.48 . +0.85 . +0.69 .. -1.62
GBPJPY long 153.06 stop 152.10, short 152.10 stop 153.06
EURJPY long 133.52 stop 132.68, short 132.68 stop 133.52
CADJPY long 86.05 stop 85.30, short 85.30 stop 86.05
All orders triggered long
GBPJPY stopped out Monday (-1.0%)
GBPJPY triggered short Monday
CADJPY short stopped out Tuesday (-1%)
EURJPY long closed 17:00 weds 134.11 (+0.7%)
GBPJPY short closed 17:00 weds 152.41 (-0.32%)
An ugly week for the XXXJPY crosses so not a good week for Sydney. -1.62%
Weekly results so far in %:
GBPJPY ... +2.75 ... +3.1 .. -1.0 ... +2.44 ... -1.0 ... -1.32
EURJPY ... +0.75 ... +2.4 ... +0.22 .. +0.41 ... -1.0 ... +0.7
CADJPY ... +2.15 ... +3.49 .. +0.3 ... -2.0 ... +2.69 .. -1.0
USDJPY ... - ...... +1.98 .. -1.0 ... - ... -
TOTAL ... +5.65 ... +10.97 . -1.48 . +0.85 . +0.69 .. -1.62
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Charts analysis
Non Farm Phoey ... Another August week of no change and endless possibilities with lots at key levels, especially European currencies.
USD index is stuck, consolidating sideways between 78 and 79 where it has been for two weeks with no sign of which way it is going to go. Long term the chart is still very bearish but a rally is not out of the question. A break in the USD index of either of those two levels will show the way. If the gold price breakout continues to rise and indices rise then a breakdown of the support in the USD seems more likely.
Indices ... are sideways still. After falling off steeply at the beginning of the week indices rallied going into the holiday weekend despite worse than expected jobs number.
Crude weekly bearish, daily bearish and lower highs ... but coming up to possible support at $67 (rising trendline, fib level and previous support level and 40day MA). Chart suggests further weakness but support here could mean the uptrend resumes.
Gold has broken out of 6 month triangle, weekly chart is very bullish, daily is bullish with good inside bar on Friday. Has yet to break the February high and key 1000 psychological level. No indication to short yet ... but a break down of the daily IB would suggest a retest of the the breakout level before a possible move higher. Failure to hold above the breakout level puts gold back in the ranges.
Silver is weekly bullish and daily bullish, it just passed the June 3rd high of 16.25 area on Thursday and Friday pulled back to closed at the level. Bullish price action here suggests a test of resistance at $17.00, but a pullback here is a double top.
AUDUSD weekly strongly bullish (DLHC- double low higher close), daily bullish, has broken out of the 8150-8450 range along with the Gold breakout. Above this level this is a buy on dips ... but I'm watching Gold and the USD index for direction.
AUDJPY Weekly bullish but sideways, daily bullish but at the top of a descending channel and held below 50fib level and 80.00 price. Got good support off the psycho 76 level and Aussie is looking strong all round if gold continues north and Im watching for a breakout of the channel. Looks good to rally.
NZDUSD Weekly bullish hammer, daily is bullish in sideways range in long term uptrend but held below 61.8fib and 69.00. Not a trade at the moment unless it breaks this level or gives a short signal.
NZDJPY Weekly bullish hammer in slight descending wedge / channel, daily bullish but at the top of a descending channel. I am watching for a break of the weekly hammer or price action to short off the top of the channel.
AUDNZD Weekly bullish, daily bullish has been in a two week uptrend but within longer term down trend of daily lower highs and lower lows. Pushing up on strong resistance at 1.24-1.2450 area and 50fib of last swing high/low, I am watching for price action or a possible break up through this level on strong Aussie/gold price.
USDCAD Weekly and daily Bearish but rangebound, despite weakening crude prices. The daily rising wedge pattern is bearish and it looks set to break the ascending support line and 1.08 level but strong support at 1.07
CADJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily is bullish but within downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Price found support off 61.8fib retracement level of last swing high/low and is now at the top of the descending channel. It could very well change trend and rally north here. I am looking for price action to short (none yet) or a breakout north.
EURCAD Weekly bearish shooting star after pullback in downtrend, daily bearish marabuzo, sell on rips.
My advice to myself to short off the 1.58 level last week would have worked really well if only I had taken it ... :(
GBPAUD Very bearish, new lows. Weekly bearish, daily sideways, sell on rallies. Again ... if only I had :(
GBPUSD Weekly bullish retracement after downtrend, daily tweezer bottomed at 1.6112 level, a big weekly SR level. Chart is messy, it breached a support line last week and then climbed above, then broke up from a descending channel but went sideways Friday. Not the best looking trade out there, stuck like the dollar index, I am neutral, and waiting for a breakout for more direction. Weakest of the European currencies.
GPBJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish after downtrend. Broke support line and has come back up to retest. Waiting for price action or a break of the weekly hammer
GBPCHF - Weekly inside bar after strong downtrend, daily has bounced off strong weekly support at 1.71. Chart remains bearish and sell on rips (rallies).
EURGBP - Weekly inside bar, daily has found resistance off weekly level at 88.30. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips.
EURUSD Sideways but Bullish, a weekly doji followed by a ... weekly doji. EUR is bid and strongest of continental currencies, it moves up on USD weakness and sideways on USD strength. Stuck in a range between 1.4180 and 1.4405. Like the USD index it needs to break out and the only way is to trade the range until it does.
EURJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish in downtrend, this has found support at 1.31. Weekly is making higher lows but daily is still in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Need to watch for more direction, could rally from here.
EURCHF Weekly and daily has pulled up in downtrend. Not the best looking trade, it is a sell on rallies back to resistance at 1.50
USDCHF weekly doji, following a weekly doji. Daily bearish but consolidating sideways. Daily descending wedge is bullish and daily candle wicks below the 1.o6 level sugest it could be a base for a move up but no clear direction at the moment.
USDJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish in donwtrend. Looks to have found support above previous low at 91.75 and set to move up from here making a higher low but longer term trend is bearish.
USDNOK Weekly and daily bearish but sideways and rangebound. It has broken the 6 level but support at 5.94 needs to break.
NAT GAS (Oct 09 - NGV9) New weekly low but daily bullish engulfing candle suggests a pullback might be setting up in long downtrend. I would wait and look for price action to sell rallies off old support at 3.2 or 3.6 levels
Copper (HGV09) - Weekly bullish hammer after pullback in uptrend, daily bullish and above 50fib level but still needs to negotiate 3000 level and 07 lows. Buy on dips in anticipation of a break but a daily lower high gets me short.
Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly spinner doji, daily bullish off support at 12280 but still in a tightening wedge. I would short a break of the daily wedge or a breakdown of the weekly rising channel but does not look exciting.
Sugar (SBV09) Weekly big bearish engulfing bar, daily bearish pullback in uptrend. At the moment uptrend is intact and a buy on dips. Need to wait to buy off 20 or 18, or more confirmation that the uptrend is over as ascending trendline is still intact.
Cocoa (CCZ09) - Like the dollar the weekly is sideways and the daily is in a tightening triangle/wedge and needs to breakout. Held below the 3,000 level needs to break that to buy if the uptrend continues. Conservative trade is a break and retest of the 3000 level.
Wheat (ZWZ09) Weekly bearish after rejection from 500 level, daily bearish and at multi year lows. Sell on rallies.
Corn (ZCZ09) - Weekly and daily bearish sitting on 300 level which looks set to break for a retest of the previous low at 290. Sell on rallies or break, anticipating new lows or a possible double bottom at 290.
Soy Beans (ZSX09) - This week gapped below 1000 and kept going. Weekly bearish in 4 month downtrend, daily bearish making lower highs and lower lows. Anticipating retest of previous low at 882 level.
Coffee (KCZ9) - Weekly bullish after pullback in uptrend. Daily bullish off 120 support level. Price looks to be consolidating in a tightening wedge and not a trade for me.
Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Weekly bullish after making new lows at 43 and now trading above 50. Daily bullish but still in downtrend. Not a trade for me here, could be a short setup off support turned resitance at 52.00
Live Cattle (LEV09) - Weekly big bullish engulfing and daily is bullish but sideways off support at 86.00 with stronger support below at 85.50 Weekly still bearish I dont see a trade here yet.
USD index is stuck, consolidating sideways between 78 and 79 where it has been for two weeks with no sign of which way it is going to go. Long term the chart is still very bearish but a rally is not out of the question. A break in the USD index of either of those two levels will show the way. If the gold price breakout continues to rise and indices rise then a breakdown of the support in the USD seems more likely.
Indices ... are sideways still. After falling off steeply at the beginning of the week indices rallied going into the holiday weekend despite worse than expected jobs number.
Crude weekly bearish, daily bearish and lower highs ... but coming up to possible support at $67 (rising trendline, fib level and previous support level and 40day MA). Chart suggests further weakness but support here could mean the uptrend resumes.Gold has broken out of 6 month triangle, weekly chart is very bullish, daily is bullish with good inside bar on Friday. Has yet to break the February high and key 1000 psychological level. No indication to short yet ... but a break down of the daily IB would suggest a retest of the the breakout level before a possible move higher. Failure to hold above the breakout level puts gold back in the ranges.
Silver is weekly bullish and daily bullish, it just passed the June 3rd high of 16.25 area on Thursday and Friday pulled back to closed at the level. Bullish price action here suggests a test of resistance at $17.00, but a pullback here is a double top.
AUDUSD weekly strongly bullish (DLHC- double low higher close), daily bullish, has broken out of the 8150-8450 range along with the Gold breakout. Above this level this is a buy on dips ... but I'm watching Gold and the USD index for direction.
AUDJPY Weekly bullish but sideways, daily bullish but at the top of a descending channel and held below 50fib level and 80.00 price. Got good support off the psycho 76 level and Aussie is looking strong all round if gold continues north and Im watching for a breakout of the channel. Looks good to rally.
NZDUSD Weekly bullish hammer, daily is bullish in sideways range in long term uptrend but held below 61.8fib and 69.00. Not a trade at the moment unless it breaks this level or gives a short signal.
NZDJPY Weekly bullish hammer in slight descending wedge / channel, daily bullish but at the top of a descending channel. I am watching for a break of the weekly hammer or price action to short off the top of the channel.
AUDNZD Weekly bullish, daily bullish has been in a two week uptrend but within longer term down trend of daily lower highs and lower lows. Pushing up on strong resistance at 1.24-1.2450 area and 50fib of last swing high/low, I am watching for price action or a possible break up through this level on strong Aussie/gold price.
USDCAD Weekly and daily Bearish but rangebound, despite weakening crude prices. The daily rising wedge pattern is bearish and it looks set to break the ascending support line and 1.08 level but strong support at 1.07
CADJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily is bullish but within downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Price found support off 61.8fib retracement level of last swing high/low and is now at the top of the descending channel. It could very well change trend and rally north here. I am looking for price action to short (none yet) or a breakout north.
EURCAD Weekly bearish shooting star after pullback in downtrend, daily bearish marabuzo, sell on rips.
My advice to myself to short off the 1.58 level last week would have worked really well if only I had taken it ... :(
GBPAUD Very bearish, new lows. Weekly bearish, daily sideways, sell on rallies. Again ... if only I had :(
GBPUSD Weekly bullish retracement after downtrend, daily tweezer bottomed at 1.6112 level, a big weekly SR level. Chart is messy, it breached a support line last week and then climbed above, then broke up from a descending channel but went sideways Friday. Not the best looking trade out there, stuck like the dollar index, I am neutral, and waiting for a breakout for more direction. Weakest of the European currencies.
GPBJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish after downtrend. Broke support line and has come back up to retest. Waiting for price action or a break of the weekly hammer
GBPCHF - Weekly inside bar after strong downtrend, daily has bounced off strong weekly support at 1.71. Chart remains bearish and sell on rips (rallies).
EURGBP - Weekly inside bar, daily has found resistance off weekly level at 88.30. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips.
EURUSD Sideways but Bullish, a weekly doji followed by a ... weekly doji. EUR is bid and strongest of continental currencies, it moves up on USD weakness and sideways on USD strength. Stuck in a range between 1.4180 and 1.4405. Like the USD index it needs to break out and the only way is to trade the range until it does.
EURJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish in downtrend, this has found support at 1.31. Weekly is making higher lows but daily is still in a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Need to watch for more direction, could rally from here.
EURCHF Weekly and daily has pulled up in downtrend. Not the best looking trade, it is a sell on rallies back to resistance at 1.50
USDCHF weekly doji, following a weekly doji. Daily bearish but consolidating sideways. Daily descending wedge is bullish and daily candle wicks below the 1.o6 level sugest it could be a base for a move up but no clear direction at the moment.
USDJPY Weekly bullish hammer, daily bullish in donwtrend. Looks to have found support above previous low at 91.75 and set to move up from here making a higher low but longer term trend is bearish.
USDNOK Weekly and daily bearish but sideways and rangebound. It has broken the 6 level but support at 5.94 needs to break.
NAT GAS (Oct 09 - NGV9) New weekly low but daily bullish engulfing candle suggests a pullback might be setting up in long downtrend. I would wait and look for price action to sell rallies off old support at 3.2 or 3.6 levels
Copper (HGV09) - Weekly bullish hammer after pullback in uptrend, daily bullish and above 50fib level but still needs to negotiate 3000 level and 07 lows. Buy on dips in anticipation of a break but a daily lower high gets me short.
Platinum (PLV09) sideways, weekly spinner doji, daily bullish off support at 12280 but still in a tightening wedge. I would short a break of the daily wedge or a breakdown of the weekly rising channel but does not look exciting.
Sugar (SBV09) Weekly big bearish engulfing bar, daily bearish pullback in uptrend. At the moment uptrend is intact and a buy on dips. Need to wait to buy off 20 or 18, or more confirmation that the uptrend is over as ascending trendline is still intact.
Cocoa (CCZ09) - Like the dollar the weekly is sideways and the daily is in a tightening triangle/wedge and needs to breakout. Held below the 3,000 level needs to break that to buy if the uptrend continues. Conservative trade is a break and retest of the 3000 level.
Wheat (ZWZ09) Weekly bearish after rejection from 500 level, daily bearish and at multi year lows. Sell on rallies.
Corn (ZCZ09) - Weekly and daily bearish sitting on 300 level which looks set to break for a retest of the previous low at 290. Sell on rallies or break, anticipating new lows or a possible double bottom at 290.
Soy Beans (ZSX09) - This week gapped below 1000 and kept going. Weekly bearish in 4 month downtrend, daily bearish making lower highs and lower lows. Anticipating retest of previous low at 882 level.
Coffee (KCZ9) - Weekly bullish after pullback in uptrend. Daily bullish off 120 support level. Price looks to be consolidating in a tightening wedge and not a trade for me.
Lean Hogs (HEV9) - Weekly bullish after making new lows at 43 and now trading above 50. Daily bullish but still in downtrend. Not a trade for me here, could be a short setup off support turned resitance at 52.00
Live Cattle (LEV09) - Weekly big bullish engulfing and daily is bullish but sideways off support at 86.00 with stronger support below at 85.50 Weekly still bearish I dont see a trade here yet.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Away!!
I'm away this week in Anguilla, it's good to see old friends, I should have come back sooner.
I'm only trading London mornings with two screens this week so hopefully less but better trades or I will have clickeritis as Mr Big calls it (a wrist condition from constantly clicking through charts).
It is off season and there is no one here. The flight was empty, the airport was empty except for a few locals, the beaches are empty, a lot of resorts & restaurants are closed (not Cap Juluca, Ripples or Gwen's, phew) but most local joints are open which is lovely. I had ribs for lunch, went kite shopping in St Martin and tonight dinner with old friends and some darts (haha I'm useless at darts).
I just found out that this island was voted best internet access of any island in the Caribbean which is shocking considering it is run by the UK ... well Cable and Wireless.
Anyway its really horrible here. I recommend you don't come and definately don't tell your friends.
Edit:
Rob wanted to see my sunday lunch ....
For Rob - Red snapper dinner and some artistically arranged cheesecake:
Another day, another sunset
I'm only trading London mornings with two screens this week so hopefully less but better trades or I will have clickeritis as Mr Big calls it (a wrist condition from constantly clicking through charts).
It is off season and there is no one here. The flight was empty, the airport was empty except for a few locals, the beaches are empty, a lot of resorts & restaurants are closed (not Cap Juluca, Ripples or Gwen's, phew) but most local joints are open which is lovely. I had ribs for lunch, went kite shopping in St Martin and tonight dinner with old friends and some darts (haha I'm useless at darts).
Oh yes .. and check out this sunset
I just found out that this island was voted best internet access of any island in the Caribbean which is shocking considering it is run by the UK ... well Cable and Wireless.
Anyway its really horrible here. I recommend you don't come and definately don't tell your friends.
Edit:
For Rob - Red snapper dinner and some artistically arranged cheesecake:
Friday, September 4, 2009
Friday 04 September NFP
Is it ... can it be ... NFP and a full moon!!
Truth time for the Bulls (if the government would tell the truth)
CRUDE short 68.39. stop 68.69, 1hrIB
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 68.63, stop 69.03 news trade
EURUSD short 1.4265, stop 1.4305 news trade (&daily pin)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 67.43 (+1.5%)
CRUDE closed 67.83 (+1.0%)
EURUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
I am done for the day.
+0.5% for the day
+5.86 for the week
Open trades
GBPCHF short 1.7638
CRUDE short 72.20
USDJPY short 93.30
Truth time for the Bulls (if the government would tell the truth)
CRUDE short 68.39. stop 68.69, 1hrIB
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 68.63, stop 69.03 news trade
EURUSD short 1.4265, stop 1.4305 news trade (&daily pin)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 67.43 (+1.5%)
CRUDE closed 67.83 (+1.0%)
EURUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
I am done for the day.
+0.5% for the day
+5.86 for the week
Open trades
GBPCHF short 1.7638
CRUDE short 72.20
USDJPY short 93.30
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