Friday, May 4, 2012

NFP Friday

Haven't been too well this week and missed the lovely bear flag short in Brent oil yesterday.  Will keep selling oil on rallies after Draghi affirmed on the uncertain outlook for the euro. Global efforts to push crude prices to below $100 seem to be working now and Brent-WTI spread tightening nicely as no one mentions Iran anymore.
The sell off this week makes me think that NFP gives us a final flush ... or we go sideways (doji day) and flush Monday.  Eitherway I am buying cable on the dip.

Brent daily bear flag break projects 109-110 next

ES 4hr chart - bearish bat pattern - shows we have a bit lower to go before we hit support

FTSE  appears to have broken rising wedge from 10 April low (4hr chart).  If the harmonic pattern plays out then we go to 5100

Likewise EURUSD has a bit lower before we hit the bottom of the wedge and the 1.30 support zone

I am watching Cable for a buy entry, I have nibbled a little at 1.6165 here but will stop out and buy lower if I am wrong ...

Trades today
Brent June short 116 stop 116.30 target 115 & lower
Cable long 1.6165 stop 1.6140 target 1.65
Cable stopped out (My stop was the exact low grrrr) -1R
Brent June closed 50% 115.10 +1.5R
Brent June closed 25%  112.40 +3R

Open positions:
USDJPY short 80.83 stop 81.33 target 78.36
EURGBP short 0.8140 stop 0.8175
Brent June short 116 stop 116.30


  1. Gail: I know we are not seeing Iran much in the news these days, but don't rule out a strike from the blue by the Israelis. They will not check with the US first. You would want to have a good hedge here.

  2. Do you really think they would strike without US permission? I'm getting flat into the weekend, Its been a good day

  3. While this topic can be really touchy for most individuals, my opinion is the fact that there has to become a middle or widespread ground that we all can locate. I do appreciate that youve added relevant and intelligent commentary in this write-up even though. Thank you!
    stock Market tips
    Commodity tips
    Equity tips