Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Waiting for the bearded clam

Well elections over, economic data is coming in surprisingly good but none of it really matters until we get the announcement later of how much, how quickly and see what the market makes of it.

I am waiting to buy dollars on any spike lower.

My favoured pairs are USDCHF (I like the monthly hammer - see chart) but it has to break back above the previous trendline support around the 1.00 parity level.  One to watch.
CHF is weak across the board, the double bottom in GBPCHF and the big bounce in EURCHF make it the best looking for now.
USDJPY is starting to show signs of a reversal but much will depend on what happens in bonds and we will have to wait for the QE2 announcement for that.

Until FOMC I am scalping crude.
Post inventories:
Crude short 85.00 stop 85.35 PT 83.00 / 80.00
Crude short closed 50% @3R 83.95 (+1.5R)
GBPAUD long closed 50% @3R 1.6150 (+1.5R)
USDCHF long stopped out balance 0.9740 (+0.5R)
GBPAUD long stopped out balance 1.6050 (+0.5R)
AUDCAD short stopped out (-1R)
EURSGD stopped out (-1R)


Open trades:
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position
Crude short 85.00 stop 85.35 PT 83.00 - 1/2 position
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THURSDAY update:
Crude short balance stopped out (-0.5R)
Silver long 25.10 stop 23.90 PT 26.20
EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820
CRUDE long 85.90 stop 85.60 PT 87.00
EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33
Silver long closed 50% @3R 25.70 (+1.5R)
Silver long closed balance @ target 26.20 (+2.75R)
Crude long closed 50% @3R 86.80 (+1.5R)
EURCHF short closed 50% @3R 1.3610 (+1.5R)
Crude long closed 86.60 - EOD pre NFP (+1.3R)
EOD trades:
USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 - pre BoJ PT 82.50
USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03

Open positions EOD:
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position
EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820
EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33
USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 PT 82.50
USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03



After all these breakouts I am posting long term charts with targets tonight.

6 comments:

  1. 200pts -500pts target is a scalp? :)

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  2. nic got any ideas on an aud target?

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  3. Hi Richard, sorry, busy morning. Breakouts everywhere
    AUDUSD target this swing is 1.0225

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  4. Second target AUDUSD is 1.03 ...

    ReplyDelete