Monday, November 1, 2010

Monday 01 November

I haven't posted any charts this week yet because everything seems to be on hold and range trading until Wednesdays FOMC announcement.  Tomorrow's US elections look like a given with Republicans getting more seats.
EUR is weak across the board this morning as the stories of problems in the peripheries won't go away.
US markets might be rattled  by news of bond insurer Ambac missing a coupon payment and could be bankrupt within a month. (ABK is down nearly 55% this morning)

I am sticking with my theory that the dollar is making a base for a bounce here, that bonds are due to correct lower and that equities still look bullish and the dollar and stocks could rally together for a couple of weeks.  All of this is irrelevant if we get a giant bazooka of QE on Wednesday but so much seems to be expected / priced in for QE that it is hard to see that the news will be anything other than a sell event.

I will post charts Wednesday morning pre FOMC and we will see where we are then.
Note to self - today is a Pomo day (although there have been some signs of pomo fatigue lately, this is also Momo Monday)

New trade:
EURUSD short 1.40 stop 1.4030 - top of wedge - PT 1.3770
EURUSD short closed 50% @3R 1.3910 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 83.65 stop 83.85 PT 81.00
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 83.05 (+1.5R)
AUDCAD stopped out balance (-0.5R) post RBA rate hike
CRUDE stopped out balance 83.40 (+0.5R)

Open trades:
USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position
EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70
EURUSD short 1.40 stop 1.4030 - 1/2 position



  2. Thanks 99er, I hadn't done JPY charts yet.
    I reckon after FOMC that USDJPY and yen crosses will be the trade ...