Back soon

Sorry for the lack of posts.  I have got a bit run down and not feeling too brilliant.  Back soon I hope.

I am tightening up dollar long positions ahead of the G20 meeting this week (I am stopped out of my USDJPY long already) but short EUR vs GBP still looks good.

NFP Friday

The last four jobs numbers days have been sell offs and it is Friday.  After massive breakout days yesterday I would not be surprised to see a round of profit taking following the jobs report today.

My trades as of last night were:
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820

EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33
USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 PT 82.50

USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03

Today:

EURUSD short 1.4190 stop 1.4250 PT 1.40 / 1.30
USDCHF stopped out - not a smart trade, going to wait on this one. (-1R)
Crude short 86.80 stop 87.20 PT 85

Waiting for the bearded clam

Well elections over, economic data is coming in surprisingly good but none of it really matters until we get the announcement later of how much, how quickly and see what the market makes of it.

I am waiting to buy dollars on any spike lower.

My favoured pairs are USDCHF (I like the monthly hammer - see chart) but it has to break back above the previous trendline support around the 1.00 parity level.  One to watch.
CHF is weak across the board, the double bottom in GBPCHF and the big bounce in EURCHF make it the best looking for now.
USDJPY is starting to show signs of a reversal but much will depend on what happens in bonds and we will have to wait for the QE2 announcement for that.

Until FOMC I am scalping crude.
Post inventories:
Crude short 85.00 stop 85.35 PT 83.00 / 80.00
Crude short closed 50% @3R 83.95 (+1.5R)
GBPAUD long closed 50% @3R 1.6150 (+1.5R)
USDCHF long stopped out balance 0.9740 (+0.5R)
GBPAUD long stopped out balance 1.6050 (+0.5R)
AUDCAD short stopped out (-1R)
EURSGD stopped out (-1R)

Open trades:

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

Crude short 85.00 stop 85.35 PT 83.00 - 1/2 position
-----------------------------------------------------

THURSDAY update:
Crude short balance stopped out (-0.5R)
Silver long 25.10 stop 23.90 PT 26.20
EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820
CRUDE long 85.90 stop 85.60 PT 87.00
EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33
Silver long closed 50% @3R 25.70 (+1.5R)
Silver long closed balance @ target 26.20 (+2.75R)
Crude long closed 50% @3R 86.80 (+1.5R)
EURCHF short closed 50% @3R 1.3610 (+1.5R)
Crude long closed 86.60 - EOD pre NFP (+1.3R)
EOD trades:
USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 - pre BoJ PT 82.50
USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03

Open positions EOD:
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820

EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33

USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 PT 82.50

USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03

After all these breakouts I am posting long term charts with targets tonight.

US Midterm election day.

The market has historically done well on election day (the Tuesday after the first Monday of November) and during election week. Since 1900, the Dow has averaged a gain of 0.28% on election day versus the average change of 0.03% for all trading days since 1900.
With the big FOMC meeting tomorrow I am not expecting any breakouts of these ranges or any that will have any follow through.

Australia unexpectedly raised interest rates tonight after a 5month pause, citing rising inflation concerns medium term, the reduced risk of lower growth in China and the minutes also say  “the economy faces large expansionary shock from terms of trade.”

I don't expect to be doing much trading today ahead of tomorrows decision but will be doing some chart study and post setups here.


EURUSD stopped out balance 1.3970 (+0.5R)
New trade (US session):
GBPAUD long 1.60 stop 1.5950 PT 1.62 / 1.66
CRUDE short 83.80 stop 84.20 PT 82.50 / 80.00
AUDCAD re-shorted 1.009 stop 1.12 PT 0.98 / 0.955
CRUDE short stopped out (-1R)

Open trades:

USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70

AUDCAD re-shorted 1.009 stop 1.12 PT 0.98 / 0.955

GBPAUD long 1.60 stop 1.5950 PT 1.62 / 1.66

Monday 01 November

I haven't posted any charts this week yet because everything seems to be on hold and range trading until Wednesdays FOMC announcement.  Tomorrow's US elections look like a given with Republicans getting more seats.
EUR is weak across the board this morning as the stories of problems in the peripheries won't go away.
US markets might be rattled  by news of bond insurer Ambac missing a coupon payment and could be bankrupt within a month. (ABK is down nearly 55% this morning)

I am sticking with my theory that the dollar is making a base for a bounce here, that bonds are due to correct lower and that equities still look bullish and the dollar and stocks could rally together for a couple of weeks.  All of this is irrelevant if we get a giant bazooka of QE on Wednesday but so much seems to be expected / priced in for QE that it is hard to see that the news will be anything other than a sell event.

I will post charts Wednesday morning pre FOMC and we will see where we are then.
Note to self - today is a Pomo day (although there have been some signs of pomo fatigue lately, this is also Momo Monday)

New trade:
EURUSD short 1.40 stop 1.4030 - top of wedge - PT 1.3770
EURUSD short closed 50% @3R 1.3910 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 83.65 stop 83.85 PT 81.00
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 83.05 (+1.5R)
AUDCAD stopped out balance (-0.5R) post RBA rate hike
CRUDE stopped out balance 83.40 (+0.5R)

Open trades:

USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70

EURUSD short 1.40 stop 1.4030 - 1/2 position

Contrarian signals

Barron's had a interesting cover on Saturday:
Yes, all those money managers who thought the S&P was a sell at 1040 now think that stocks are cheap as the S&P kisses 1200.

If you are not a Barron's suscriber then you can read a cached version of the article by clicking HERE 
It shows big money surprisingly bullish and anytime that there are that many people on one side of the boat we could get nasty corrections.