Monday, April 23, 2012

USD crosses

Dollar Index:
Monthly chart.
My view is we are on our way back to the top of the wedge and we have hit mid pattern congestion or are we headed back to the 76.40-77.20 zone before higher.

Daily chart

Daily chart shows harmonic pattern setting up if we break this wedge to the downside with a measured move and fib target zone 76.20-40 where I would be a buyer

This tightening up in the dollar index is pretty clear in the major pairs with GBP the strongest vs the dollar with a break to the upside and NZD & just behind AUD as the weakest.  EUR & CHF are in tight wedges setting up breakout trades

EURUSD daily
I like EURUSD long on dips to 1.3837 where I am a seller again
EURUSD hourly channel support 

GBPUSD weekly - huge bullish week last week, on its way back to the top of the wedge, are people pricing in a UK rate hike now Posen has flipped?  I am watching a retest of 1.60 to buy.  
Cable hourly channel in play now

AUDUSD daily chart
After double bottom at the 50fib Aussie has held in the channel and rolled over. My downside targets for this bearish pattern are below parity at 98 if the 1.0250 level does not hold this time
Weekly chart bigger picture has Aussie in a bearish AB=CD from the 08 lows


NZDUSD weekly chart
(also bearish harmonic pattern) After weeks chopping around above 2008 highs back to 0.7978 support next looks most likely

USDCAD daily chart
My worst performing market, need to remove my own limits, it's been a long time since this market was trending, rangebound since the start of the year, buy the bottom & sell the top til it breaks.

USDCHF daily chart
Another wedge, there is a pattern here ... ;)

USDJPY daily chart
JPY has outperformed the dollar this week & month so far. April is seasonally end of year yen repatriation month. Starting to get that bull flag look which sets up a nice trade for down the road ...80.00 looks like such an easy buy level it got frontrun last time we got close, but my money says 79.50 & 78.30 are better levels.

5 comments:

  1. great to have you back on blogging :-)

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  2. I used to trade some currencies, like the AUD, CAD, and GBP all against the USD. But now, I only trade the USDX.

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