Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Tuesday 26 October

The big risk off moves yesterday moved some products out of congestion ranges.

Gold is interesting for a pullback, a 50% retrace of the daily marabuzo is 1046 and I would look for price action to short.

I like Crude to continue south on a break of this support line (4hr chart): with a target of $75
EURUSD is consolidating above key support at 1.4840 and needs to break this level for my view to change to bearish.  I am holding my short.    Likewise USDCHF (chart left) needs to break 1.02 and upper trendline to get me long and AUDUSD 91.10 support to get me short.    USDCAD has broken key resistance at 1.0680 but until some more pairs break key levels it is just a countertrend pullback.

I am also watching the SnP to break a rising trendline from the March lows (daily chart):

Finally ... check out this level on AUDCAD:

AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 - see above chart
AUDUSD short 0.9180 stop 0.9220 4hr Shooting Star
EURJPY short 136.96 stop 137.26 - addition
CRUDE short 79.50 stop 79.90 - off 50fib retrace
GOLD short 1037.60 stop 1039.60 - break of support
EURUSD short 1.4838 stop 1.4858 - addition
EURUSD addition closed 1.4798 (+2%)
EURJPY addition closed 135.80 (+3.86%)
AUDCAD banked 50% @3xR 97.45 (+1.5%)
GOLD short stopped out  (-1.0%)
AUDUSD closed 91.35 dbl bottom (+1.8%)
Asian session:
USDJPY short 91.69 stop 91.89 - break of support
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9158, target 0.9030 / 0.8980

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 & 79.50 stop 79.90
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845
USDJPY short 91.69 stop 91.89
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9158


  1. re: AUD/CAD - weeeee!

    Will hold onto this; if we start to see some unwinding of carry trades, expect AUD to bear the brunt, and I don't think CAD will weaken by the same measure vis a vis USD strength

    RBA decision on 3rd Nov, mkt expcect 25bp hike but whispers of 50bp... also note incfrease in RBA public speaking above the norm... contrarian in me saysanything dovish could catch alot of punters offside and thats the way to be positioned

  2. Thanks so much for pointing this one out Ollie :)