Thursday 05 November 2009

I am struggling with charts this morning.  Technically a failed breakout should produce a powerful reversal move and technically EURUSD broke the daily ascending trendline from the lows and then yesterdays FOMC moves put it back above it.  This failed breakout (down) should be strongly bullish but it is weak, back below support and so the ECB rate decision today should be the decider.  This failed breakout scenario applies for a lot of the charts including sterling ... also rate decision today.  I am speculatively short but will cut trades if the decisions go against me. 

S&P has broken daily support line but climbed up the underside of it yesterday and failed to close above after the FOMC.  There is minor support from a more recent trendline but the price action and break of the more significant support line says more downside to come ...  However until the other support line is broken another run up to test the 1075 area is not out of the question.

And gold is trending beautifully, channel is looking good:




Asian session last night:
EURJPY short 134.65 stop 135.05
AUDJPY short 82.35 stop 82.75
NZDJPY short 65.60 stop 65.85
GBPJPY short 150.20 stop 150.60
I have decided to close a lot of positions, EURUSD is looking bullish as are the indices and the dollar could take another dip.  Will review again after rate statements.
USDCHF long closed 1.01665 trendline break (+1.16%)
AUDUSD short closed 0.9063 trendline break (+1.83%)
EURJPY short closed 133.75 (+2.25%)
NZDJPY short closed 65.00 (+2.4%)
AUDJPY closed 81.85 trendline break (+1.0%)
GBPJPY closed 149.20 trendline break (+2.5%)
EURUSD 26Oct closed balance 148.55 (+2.08%)
GBPUSD closed 1.6506 (+1.0%)

Open Positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845