Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Wednesday 20 October

I am cautious today,  I tend to give back profit after big days.  Such big down days tend to produce back and fill and inside bar days the next day and the twitter stream is already full of PMOO and buy buy buy and the correction is over.
I am going to wait and see how today goes before adding to any positions but I think more downside is possible.
Here is the crude chart.  Which pattern is the one?
Daily chart

4hr chart - might be a channel, not a triangle

SPX 4hr chart
Needs to hold below the channel to convince me there is more downside to come.

EURUSD 4hr chart
Sell rallies, I am sticking with my 1.35 / 1.33 / 1.3150 targets


  1. Good call this morning on Zero Hedge. The top is in. Chapeau!

  2. Yeah highs could get retested but these are big levels. This market is out to shake out the bulls and the bears.
    Hard to short risk into the (bound-to-be-good) China data tonight but Thursdays are usually best trading day of the week

  3. if spx 1182+ doesn't hold.. i'm with you..

    also, i'll go along with both those crude charts for now, tho i prefer the 4 hour! they were all the best picks.. thanks for putting them up!

  4. Thanks Karen
    I am redrawing my S&P channel, I think I had it wrong, so we just touched the bottom. S&P says no trend change but the FX dollar crosses definately suggest a low is in.
    I want to see the dollar index can hold above 76.78 then we have a trend change for me.

  5. i,m back! well kinda, great to see some things havnt changed including my favourite trading comemtator... il give you a shout tom.

  6. Hi Nicola, I came across your site after listening to your interview @ euodoo. I have a quick question, why did you decide to use 3R and 6R as your criteria for taking profits?


  7. Hi Anon,
    I tried a lot of ways before I chose 3R and 6R. I tried taking half off at 1R and running the rest with a trailing stop and taking it all off at 3R etc. In the end this one worked best for my style and stop size.
    I have had some moments with it, when price stops a couple of pips short of your target and then reverses it sucks so if my target is just beyond a major support or resistance level I will adjust for it.