Friday 26 February

UK revised GDP numbers this morning ...  My countertrend GBPJPY long is not looking very smart today.

GBPCHF closed 50% @3R 1.6445 (+1.5R)
GOLD long 1109.50 stop 1104, target 1124 - see chart
CRUDE long 78.00 stop 77.65, target 80 - 50% retrace weekly marabuzo
GBPAUD short 1.71430 stop 1.71730 target below 1.70535
GBPCHF short 1.6380 stop 1.6410 DIBS addition
EURUSD closed 50% @1.3575 (+1.5R)
GBPJPY closed BE, not doing what I expected, will wait
GBPAUD closed 50% @3R 1.7053 (+1.5R)
GBPAUD short 1.7050 stop 1.7080 addition, break of daily lows
CRUDE closed 50% @3R 79.05 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD long 0.8920 stop 0.8895 target 90.00
GBPCHF addition closed 1.6330 (+1.66R)
GBPAUD addition closed 1.70 (+1.66R)
CRUDE balance closed 79.76 (+2.37R)
GOLD closed 1116.20 (+1.2R)
AUDUSD closed 89.60 (+1.6R)
GBPCHF closed 1.6350 (+2.45R)
If crude had made it over 80 I would have held over the weekend.  I am closing gold and AUD because of the weekly hanging man that has formed.  I still think we will have a corrective rally but I am going to wait for better setups.

Open trades:
EURUSD long 1.35 stop 1.3475 - 1/2
GBPAUD short 1.71430 stop 1.7173 - 1/2




Gold daily

Update:  my gold long is going nowhere and this is why I hate goldbugs: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61P0QZ20100226


My week in summary:
9 losers, 18 winners
Average win +2.95R, Average loss -0.88R

Thursday 25 February

I am about to hit the end of the road with my sterling shorts.
Will help pay for the mess I am making with crude.

CableGBPJPY

Today's trades:

USDJPY short 89.45 stop 89.70 ( I should not have cut this yesterday)

CABLE short balance closed 1.5275 (+4.58R)

CABLE short addition closed (+2.3R)

CABLE long 1.5275 stop 1.5225 target 1.54

CRUDE long stopped out (-1R)

GBPJPY balance closed 1.3570 target (+6.3R)

EURJPY closed 120.25 (+3.25R)

GBPJPY long 136.02 stop 1.3562 target 139

EURUSD long 1.35 stop 1.3475 target 136.25

GBPCHF short 1.6595 stop 1.6645 break of weekly IB

GBPJPY short stopped out (-1R)

CABLE short stopped out (-1R)

CRUDE short 77.95 stop 78.20 target 76.00

CRUDE closed 77.50 (+2R)

USDJPY closed 88.95 (+2R)

GOLD stopped out (-1R)

SILVER stopped out (-1R)

GBPJPY long 135.70 stop 135.20 countertrend target 138.20

Open trades:

EURUSD long 1.35 stop 1.3475
GBPCHF short 1.6595 stop 1.6645
GBPJPY long 135.70 stop 135.20

Wednesday 24 February

Not all the daily charts are clear about direction for me.  Although the market wants to go down right now I was expecting more rally before this drop and I am not ruling out some big bounces or that the rally may resume for one last push up.
Commodities and commodity currencies are weaker than the continentals.  GBPAUD, EURNZD etc look like good  buys.

Today's trades:
SILVER short addition 15.76 stop 16.01 break of yesterdays lows
GOLD short 1104 stop 11.09 break of overnight range target 1085
CRUDE short addition 79.01 stop 79.36
EURNZD long 1.9583 stop 1.9543 target 1.9640/1.9785
EURUSD closed 1.3540 - not able to break 1.35 will wait (+0.7R)
USDCAD closed 1.05 - double top (+1.65R)
USDJPY closed balance 90.10 - target+90 (+3.8R)
SILVER addition stopped out (-0.5R)
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE short balance closed 79.50 (+0.5R)
CRUDE long 79.50 stop 79.10 target 85.00
EURNZD stopped out (-1R)
CABLE short 1.5390 stop 1.5440 - asian session target 50fib

Open trades:
GBPJPY short 1.42 stop 1.4250 - 1/2
CABLE short 1.5550 stop 1.585 - 1/2
SILVER short 15.980 stop 16.18
EURJPY short 123.50 stop 1.24 - 1/2
GOLD short 1104 stop 11.09
CRUDE long 79.50 stop 79.10

Tuesday 23 February

There is so much snow here overnight that its not even funny.
I am looking to sell cable and buy USDCAD today.
I am looking for silver to break the rising support line (flag) from the beginning of February and $16.  Gold has the same rising support line and a below 1110 is a break.
EURJPY looks set to  break a daily rising trendline

CABLE short 1.5550 off 50fib retrace and SbR stop 1.585
EURUSD short 1.3565 stop 1.36, break of Mondays low.
GBPJPY closed 50% @ 3xR 1.4150 (+1.5R)
CRUDE closed 50% @3xR 78.50 (+1.5R)
SILVER short 15.980 stop 16.18 TP 15.00
CABLE closed 50% @3R 1.5445 (+1.5R)
EURJPY short 123.50 stop 1.24 TP 121.50
USDCAD long 1.045 stop 1,042 DIBS
AUDJPY short 81.50 stop 81.85 DIBS
EURJPY closed 50% @3xR 1.22 (+1.5R)

Open positions:
USDJPY short 91.90 stop 92.15 - 1/2
GBPJPY short 1.42 stop 1.4250 - 1/2
CRUDE short 80.00 stop 80.50 - 1/2
CABLE short 1.5550 stop 1.585 - 1/2
EURUSD short 1.3565 stop 1.36
SILVER short 15.980 stop 16.18
EURJPY short 123.50 stop 1.24  - 1/2
USDCAD long 1.045 stop 1,042 DIBS



AUDJPY short 81.50 stop 81.85 DIBS

Monday 22 February 2010

I am waiting for a long entry on Crude and possibly gold / AUDUSD, USDNOK.

GBPAUD closed 1.7182 (+2.25R)
GBPJPY short 1.42 stop 1.4250, 50% retrace of weekly SS candle
USDJPY banked 50% 3xR 91.15 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 80.00 stop 80.50 countertrend target 78/77

Open positions:
USDJPY short 91.90 stop 92.15
GBPJPY short 1.42 stop 1.4250
CRUDE short 80.00 stop 80.50

Dollar Index

Friday 19 February

EURUSD (from last night) closed 1.3470 (+3.4R)
GBPAUD short 1.7295 stop 1.7345 TP 1.7120
GBPJPY short 1.4147 stop 1.4197 TP 1.41 if support does not break
GBPJPY short  addition 1.4121 stop 1,4151 TP 1.40 - trendline break
CRUDE stopped out 78.63 (+1R)
GBPJPY addition stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY original stopped out BE
CABLE balance closed 1.5410 (+4.5R)
EURUSD short 1.3498 stop 1.3527 DIBS
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
USDJPY short 91.90 stop 92.15 TP 90.90

Open positions:
GBPAUD short 1.7295 stop 1.7345
USDJPY short 91.90 stop 92.15

Thursday 18 February

I missed some obvious entries that met my rules yesterday while I messed about scalping crude.  I got up early and I'm not going to make the same mistake twice.
I am looking for a short entry on Cable hoping that the daily flag breaks and then a break of last weeks low.

CABLE short 1.5650 stop 1.5675, TP 1.5560 / 1.5275
AUDUSD short 0.8965 stop 0.8985 TP 88.50 / X
GBPJPY short 1.4220 stop 1.4260 TP 141.30 / X
GOLD short 1099.95 stop 1104.95 TP 1084.95 / X
CRUDE short 77.34 stop 77.59 TP 76.10 / X
USDCAD long 1.0478 stop 1.0460 TP 1.0580 / X
AUDJPY short 81.30 stop 81.65 DIBs TP 80.45 / X
EURUSD short 1.3555 stop 1.3570 TP 1.35 / X - retest of o'night low
AUDCAD short 0.9374 stop 0.9392 TP 93 - hourly bear flag
EURUSD stopped out (-1R)
EURAUD closed 1.5158 (+1R) - yesterdays trade
USDCAD stopped out (-1R)
GOLD stopped out (-1R)
CABLE banked 50% @3R 1.5575 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD closed BE
AUDJPY stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE closed 77.03 - will wait for US session open (+1.25R)
GBPJPY closed 50% @ 3R 141.00 (+1.5R)
GBPJPY balance closed 141.50 (+0.87R)
CRUDE short 79.00 stop 79.50 top of rising channel and 61.8fib
CRUDE stopped out (-1R)
Just cable left short.

Post Fed rate hike:
EURUSD short 1.3573  stop 1.3603
CRUDE short 79.13 stop 79.53


Cable daily chart:

Crude 4hr:

I am lucky to be up on the day, I traded really badly.

Wednesday 17 Feb

Turnaround Tuesday could be postponed until Wednesday this week because of the holiday. 
I'm flat waiting to see which way we go and what the BoE minutes reveal.

CRUDE short 77.90 stop 78.10 (tight - countertrend) TP 77 / 76.10
CRUDE closed 77.80 unable to break TL (+0.5R)
CRUDE short 77.69 stop 78.09 TP1 76.09 trendline break
GBPUSD long 1.5730 stop 1.5690 buying SR level
GBPUSD stopped out (-1R)
EURAUD short 1.5190 stop 1.5220 break of SR, TP 1.4999
GBPJPY short 142.50 stop 1.4290 trendline break TP 141.75
CABLE short 1.5720 stop 1.5750 break of SR level
CABLE closed 1.5710 (+0.3R) will wait for this one
GBPJPY closed BE, 4hr hammer formed
CRUDE closed 77.00 (+1.5%)

EURUSD

The market is very short EUR but now Greece has a month's grace to sort itself out.
Is this a bit of a squeeze where some of the shorts who don't want to wait a month get out or is this a good bounce. Price had to break the trendline to get me long, which it did tonight so I may be looking for a retest and a long tomorrow - a bigger bounce than we think.  All down to the indices now.

Why is 1.36 a thick line on my chart?    Here is the weekly view:

Tuesday 16 February

Left an order overnight for Aussie which got triggered.  Indices look ready to rally and don't care about Greek contagion.

AUDUSD long 89.19 stop 88.89, break of flag resistance, countertrend target 90.0
USDCAD short 1.0458 stop 1.0478, countertrend target 1.0410
CRUDE long 75.33 stop 74.93, first target 78
CABLE short 1.57 stop 1.5730 target 1.5605
CRUDE closed 50% @ 76.48 (+1.43R)
USDCAD closed at 1.0410 (+2.4R)
AUDUSD closed at 89.91 (+2.4R)
CABLE short stopped out (-1R)
USDJPY short 90.40 stop 90.65 target 88
USDCAD long 1.0420 stop 1.0395 target 1.046 / 1.07
CRUDE closed 77.27 (+2.42R)
CRUDE short 77.27 stop 77.67 target 76
GBPJPY short 1.4235 stop 1.4265 target 135.85
CRUDE short stopped out (-1R)
GBPJPY closed (-0.7R) - not doing what I expected
USDCAD closed BE - not doing what I expected
USDJPY closed BE - not doing what I expected



WTI 4hr

I am almost ready to have a go at selling USDJPY again:

Analysis and not many charts

Indecision!
US Bank holiday, Asia holiday, Greece holiday so I will take a pass on trading.
Commodity currencies have bounced back against the dollar led by AUD,  but the Euro Sterling and Swiss went sideways. 

Dollar Index - Finished last week almost exactly where it began after bouncing off resistance.  A volatile week where the index seemed to be following indices rather than vice versa.  Uptrend is still intact but more sideways chop is not out of the question.  FOMC meeting this week and comments re interest hikes or tightening might give some direction.

Indices.
S&P Weekly inside bar and a close not too far from last week perhaps slightly more bullish.  Daily chart shows price contained in a descending channel and knocking on the top of it and a rally from here looks on the cards.  The market seems to want to go higher, it resisted tanking when the dollar fell hard earlier in the week and also recovered quickly following the announcement of higher China bank reserves (unlike last time).  I have an upside target of 1085 / 1092

FTSE very similar to the SnP in a descending channel but threating a break to the upside. But a stronger week has FTSE back above strong support at 5081.  Upside target 5375 / 5398

CRUDE OIL (WTI)

Volatile week in the dollar is reflected in the crude chart.  Weekly inside bar with a close above 72.50 support but below psychological level of 75.  Price has found support off the 200day moving average. 
The cot reports say net long positions in crude declined 51% last week, as a contrarian indicator it suggests a rally is in order.  Crude is at the bottom of a range or channel forming and if the channel is correct the upper price target is a new yearly high at 85.00  This also coincides with the 100% fib expansion of the last swing.   I expect some bumps on the way at 78.00 and 81. 00
A break back below 72.50 sets up a retest of 70 and the bottom of the range.   Price has to break below 68.69 previous swing low for the 12 month uptrend to be over.

Gold. Downtrend, Last weeks break below the descending channel was false and gold found support off the 200 day moving average and momentum to move higher last week.  Top of the descending channel is a good target for a short (perhaps 1103), a break up out of the channel says a retest of 1125 .  Break of the 4hr/1hr rising trendline support line gets me short again.

Silver. Downtrend intact but silver has made a grinding slow retracement higher this week.  I am waiting for price action at 16.00 to short this but a bigger retrace to 16.750 or 18.00 is also quite possible.

Currencies - Majors

AUDUSD  Daily double top.  Price powered out of the descending channel last week on better than expected AUD employment and economic news and shrugged off the Greek contagion.  Weekly inside bar means could consolidate sideways some more but if it pushes higher then I'm looking for price action at 90.00 (or poss 91.30) to short again. 

NZDUSD – Daily double top.  Unlike the Aussie the NZD has not broken out of its descending channel and is held back by descending trendline.  Presently stopped at the 61.8fib retracement of the last leg down it looks pretty weak and a better short opportunity than AUD. Weekly inside bar means could consolidate sideways some more but if last weeks low does not hold next support is 66.00

USDCAD - I am bullish above 1.0225.  I am looking for price action to go long at 1.0415 which is former support and 61.8fib retracement.

GBPUSD – broke down strong support at 1.5730 and this level held as resistance all last week preventing any meaningful retracement. If this resistance is broken I would go long countertrend targeting 1.60 and the 50fib but my preferred trade is looking for price action to short off 1.60 (50fib) or 1.61 (61.8fib and strong resistance).  It is VERY possible cable just continues to consolidate sideways and the resistance at 1.5750 holds and it range trades which case I will short a break of the lower range at 1.5530 or the rising 4hr trendline.

EURUSD – (the weakest link!).  I am flat at the moment.  If it can manage a weak rally then I am looking to short at 1.37 (trendline resistance) and then 1.3850 (prev swing low) but if the Euro catches a bounce then I prefer the 1.420 level for price action to short.  Like Cable EURUSD could be a range trade until it breaks down, ranging between 1.3830 and 1.3530

USDJPY – contained within a downtrending channel, I am only selling rallies until it breaks out or touches the bottom of the channel.  Price has made a grinding retracement higher from the big drop on 04Feb and is sitting and holding below the 61.8fib.  A bounce up from here sets up another test of the channel trendline at 91.50/92.00.  I am flat until price breaks below 88.50 or above 91.30 (prev swing lo / swing high) or I might consider a trendline break trade.

USDCHF - Above 1.05 I am bullish.  I would buy dips or a pullback to 1.05 but would not be surprised to see the pullback capped at 1.06

Crosses:

AUDJPY – strong downtrend- weekly inside bar indicates consolidation or could push as high as 83 where I will look for price action to short. 

NZDJPY - strong downtrend, it broke the diamond top formation on the daily. If you project a target using that top then the level is the previous support at 52.89 I am selling rallies, resistance at 62.16 and 64.71

CADJPY – strong downtrend, I am selling rallies and looking at resistance at 84.21 and 86.15 for entries. My target is the bottom of the range at 75.

AUDNZD – Uptrend, the divergence between the AUD ands NZD charts makes this look good as a long.  Support at 1.24 and resistance at 1.2775.  I would buy a pullback to 1.2660 or buy a break of 1.2775

EURNZD – Look set to retest the January lows.  Massive weekly bearish outside bar, Fridays inside bar looks like a good trade to me.

GBPAUD – strong downtrend. Price looks to be consolidating after last weeks massive drops.  I like Friday's inside bar as an IB trade setup.

AUDCHF - Strong uptrend weekly bullish outside bar, daily made new highs last week this is a buy on dips or a pullback to 0.94

AUDCAD – Price has made a lower high but needs to break and close below 91.950 to confirm downtrend. A rally from here suggests a double bottom.  I am waiting to see but I am favouring the short side.

EURAUD - making significant new lows, no end to the downtrend, I am a seller of rallies (looking for 1.55 / 1.5620) but price could just continue to drop here.  Support 1.5144 and 1.4871

EURNZD - similar to EURAUD, sell retraces off 1.9560 / 1.9640 or break of lows with support at 1.8981 / 1.8661

GPBJPY – downtrend – I am bearish and selling rallies.  Price broke below 1.40 support but could not hold below.  The rising wedge pattern (bear flag) on the 4hr / daily is bearish and I would sell a break of the wedge, otherwise I would wait for a pullback to 143 or the trendline support at 1.44 to short.

GBPCHF – Flat the SNB interventions have made this hard to read.  Price is contained in an extended wedge/ triangle and looks set to test the upper boundary and 1.70 SR level where I would sell.

EURGBP Price contained in a well defined triangle/wedge I believed that this pair had moved off the bottom for a swing.  A sharp reversal off the 0.8830 SR pivot level and the decline in the euro the last two weeks has it set to test the bottom again and a break out means a long drop ahead.  Support at 0.8650, 0.8600 I am back to being bearish and will wait for price action at 0.86

EURJPY – downtrend – but stalled with a weekly inside bar at 121.50 support after several attempts to break it.  I am a seller of rallies looking at a rally to the SR level at 124.80 for a short entry. A corrective rally could get as high as 1.2730 or 1.29 where I am a seller.  Only a break and close above 129 changes my bearish view. Short  target is 1.1550

EURCHF – Downtrend but No, thank you

USDNOK – uptrend – confirmed bottom, I am a buyer of dips with a target 6.60.  Price poked its head above 6.0 but couldnt hold it. A break and close above would be a good entry.
Below 5.80 is a no trading zone for me and a deeper correction could be forming.

Friday 12 February

I almost went back to bed this morning after a crude trade went nowhere and it looked as there would be no momentum.  Lucky I stayed around.

CRUDE short 75.18 stop 75.68 target 74
CRUDE closed BE, will short a break of 75 instead
CABLE short 1.5730 stop 1.5770 off resistance targeting lows
CRUDE short 54.95 stop 75.45 target 74 and trendline support
EURUSD short 1.3599 stop 1.3619 break of lows and 36 level
CABLE closed 50% @3xR 1.5610 (+1.5R)
EURUSD closed 50% @3xR 1.3539 (+1.5R)
CRUDE closed target 74 (+2.36R)
EURUSD balance closed 1.3539 (1.5R)
CABLE balance closed 1.5610 (+1.5R)
I closed because I want to wait until after the US open and I am concerned we may rally from here.
CRUDE short 74.26 stop 72.56 target 73.90 / 73.00
CRUDE short 73.75 stop 74.10 break of daily hammer/doji (addition)
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE closed 50% @3R 73.36 (+1.5R)
CRUDE balance closed 73.96 (+0.5R)

Thursday 11 February

I don't really have any firm conviction as to which way the markets go today so I'm just sticking to rules for shorter term trades.  I show sterling as the weakest of all this morning so I am selling some small positions but I am aware support is close by.  Cable is sitting above strong resistance at 1.5550 and the bottom line of the descending channel and GBPJPY coming up on rising trendline support so it is possible these are very short lived trades!
Would have loved to have been short GBPAUD but that train left without me last night.

Crude is interesting.  Despite lacklustre sideways markets elsewhere it has rallied over $5 from the lows to test the 75 round number.  Not quite at trendline resistance but a 61.8fib, 38 and 100% fib expansion of the last swing are there.  It might be a nice cheeky short.
This is the 4hr chart.  I might take a short here and see where we go.  US employment news later in the US session.  Greek news event possible all day!

CABLE short 1.5597 stop 1.5627, first target 1.5530 (half position)
GBPJPY short 1.4027 stop 1.4054, first target 1.3960 (half position)
GBPCHF short 1.6620 stop 1.6650 first targets 1.6545 (half position)
Out flat on all my sterling trades ... I think I better leave this, the Greek comments are starting to drive me crazy.

EURUSD long 1.3665 stop 1.3645, a scalp off the bottom of the channel (red) and the 100fib expansion level (half size)

Stopped out (-1R)


CRUDE short 74.88 stop 75.18, break and retest of 75.00
Stopped out (-1R).  This should not have happened.  Poor trade management by me.

Wednesday 10 Feb 2010

A choppy day which started badly getting spiked out of some positions i put on last night and carried on choppy all day.  The Greece bailout/no bailout rumours in what feels like a low liquidity market has not been much fun.  The tight daily doji candle on most pairs show how much fun it has been.
Tonight Australia got great employment numbers and powered right out of its descending channel showing that the downtrend in the commodity currencies is doing more than pausing.  AUD, NZD and CAD are rallying hard tonight and although the continentals are quiet so far there is a good chance they will follow.
I got stopped out of my balance of AUDUSD and AUDJPY positions and have closed the rest.  I will wait and see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday 09 Feb 10

First there is a bailout for Greece, then there isn't!  I'm still selling the rips.

CRUDE short 7217 stop 7267, initial target 70
CRUDE closed 7242, no momentum (-0.5R)
CRUDE short 72.70 stop 73.20 off 50fib retracement
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0R)
EURUSD short 138.30 stop 13845 (half size addition)
CABLE short 1.5712 stop 1.5732 (half size addition)
USDCHF long 1.0650 stop 1.0622 target 1.10
CRUDE short 73.61 stop 74.21 (third time lucky)
AUDUSD short 0.8780 stop 0.8818 (addition)

Open positions tonight (all 1/2 positions except gold which is a 1/4 positions):
CABLE short 1.5955 stop 1.6005
AUDUSD short 0.8874 stop 0.8904
EURUSD short 1.3934 stop 1.3962
USDCAD long 1.0605 stop 1.0575
GOLD short 1111 stop 1118.5
AUDJPY short 79.66 stop 80.06

EURUSD

I am not sure these stories are not good news for my Euro short:

Traders Make Record 8billion Bet Against Euro
and this:
Investors have made a near-5bn bet against the euro amid fears of a full-blown regional debt crisis.

and now a rumour Trichet is leaving a seminar early for an unscheduled ECB council meeting ...
A bailout for Greece could mean quite a bounce for EURUSD.

Monday February 08, 2010

Very quiet morning so far. 

CABLE short 1.554 stop 1.5604 - a sell stop below Friday's lows triggered
CABLE stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE 1/4 posn balance closed 71.50 (+2.56R)
CRUDE short 70.95 - DIBS and break of level.  stop 71.45
CRUDE stopped out (-1R)

Open positions:
Open positions tonight (all 1/2 positions except gold which is a 1/4 positions):
CABLE short 1.5955 stop 1.6005
AUDUSD short 0.8874 stop 0.8904
EURUSD short 1.3934 stop 1.3962
USDCAD long 1.0605 stop 1.0575
GOLD short 1111 stop 1118.5
AUDJPY short 79.66 stop 80.06

Analysis and some charts

Volatility rules! Risk aversion is in but pullbacks are inevitable. Stop levels and SR levels seem pretty obvious at least for the dollar crosses. If risk aversion continues then the yen looks set to strengthen further. The Greek disease seems to be spreading to Portugal and might be infectious.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7182739/Greek-Ouzo-crisis-escalates-into-global-margin-call-as-confidence-ebbs.html. And no doubt RBS results won’t be happy for Sterling.
The end of day rally in the US indices on Friday was heavily touted on CNBC as exhaustion of selling, bargain basement prices and they predicted a big rally from here. I’m not convinced it wasn't just some profit taking at a 10% retracement point and will wait to see how the daily hammers on many charts play out from here.
This week has GBP inflation report, Euro GDP numbers, Australian employment and US advance retail sales in a news week that looks thin compared to last week but the Sovereign debt story could continue.

Dollar Index - Last week hit 7 month highs running straight through the round number resistance at 80.00. Stronger resistance is looming at 81.35/81.40 and closest support now at 80 (Weekly chart):



Crude. Bearish weekly engulfing candle, a break of the key pivot level at 72.50 (check a daily chart) and the last major daily trendline support means I continue to sell rallies looking to the December swing low at 68.69 initially. I expect a pullback up to resistance at some point and I see a retest of the levels at 72.50, 74 and 75 as a good levels. Below 72.50 is a very key pivot level for me.   You might be wondering why I draw fibs from the Oct 08 highs instead of the all time highs.  I have found that quite a few instruments (Cable is a good example) really respect the levels from the 08 highs to the December08/March09 lows.

Gold. Downtrend, massive weekly bearish engulfing candle which has closed below round number 1100 and key pivot level at 1074. I am a seller of rallies. It is interesting that in a risk averse week more money didn’t make its way to gold, preferring more liquid treasuries. Or perhaps the market thinks the price is a little to rich at those levels. I am selling a retest of 1074 from below and looking for a break of last weeks low at 1044 where support is.

Silver. Downtrend continues, a similar chart to gold but looks to be trading better! Last week broke the last daily trendline and also back through the 50fib level of the 08 highs and lows. Price has stalled on previous resistance level at 14.650 and I am a seller of rallies below 15.00. Retracement to 16 is possible and I would be looking for price action to short there also.

Currencies - Majors

AUDUSD Weekly and daily bearish continuation. Last week price broke December support at 87.30 which confirms the double top. I am anticipating a short term bounce and a continuation to 84, the projected level of the head and shoulders that broke in December.

NZDUSD – strong downtrend. Below 71.50 I am selling rallies with a target of 65 or 6450 where there are a mass of fib levels. Retracement resistance is at 69.77

GBPUSD – down trend – I have spent hours today drawing lines on this one chart. I see a diamond top and we have broken – very bearish and gives a downside target below 1.50. I am selling rallies and looking at resistance levels at 1.5730, 1.5780 and possibly 1.60 for short entries.

EURUSD – strong downtrend – My lowest target from last week of 1.35 was almost hit and I favour more downside but a corrective rally seems inevitable. I am a seller of rallies and would look for a short entry in the 1.3825 / 13860 levels (if it makes it that far). Only a break above the last swing at 1.4030 changes my bearish view.

USDJPY – Downtrend, contained within a downtrending channel, only a break above 9380 changes my view and I am a seller of rallies whilst price remains below 90.00 (I am looking at 89.80 for an entry). A daily bearflag looks to be forming and I may also short a break of support.

Crosses:

AUDJPY – strong downtrend- Hit my target at 76.30 and has stalled. I remain a seller of rallies and my target is 70.75. Has to break above 80.73 to get me to buy dips.

NZDJPY - strong downtrend, it broke the diamond top formation on the daily. If you project a target using that top then the level is the previous support at 52.89 I am selling rallies, resistance at 62.16 and 64.71

CADJPY – strong downtrend, I am selling rallies and looking at resistance at 84.21 and 86.15 for entries. My target is the bottom of the range at 75.

AUDNZD – Uptrend, but not a trade for me. Support at 1.24 and resistance at 1.2775

EURNZD – Lower highs and lower lows mean a low is in place and uptrend underway. I would buy dips but the important 2.00 level is looming and I would buy a break and successful retest of this level. Failure to break and close above this level and I am a seller of rallies. Until then I wait.

GBPAUD – uptrend correction in longer term downtrend. The weekly tells the story, the daily is still in uptrend mode. Price looks to have failed to break above the previous swing high and I think this might be an interesting non-dollar trade Monday, looking to retest the lows. Price has to break above the top of the range at 1.84 would have me looking for a long.

AUDCHF - Strong uptrend has stalled and Daily is making clear lower highs and lower lows. However weekly rules and up trend is still in place. Once to watch.

AUDCAD – Price has made a lower high but needs to break and close below 91.950 to confirm downtrend and top is in place. I am waiting to see but I am favouring the short side.

GPBJPY – downtrend – The big drop happened and I had key support at 1.3930 which I did not expect to be breached on Friday, this area has been tested 4 times before and held. There is the potential for quite a bounce here if history repeats itself. However I remain a seller of rallies and I am looking at 141.50 / 142.00 for entry (if it gets there). (I am wondering, having read my forecast last week, how I managed to trade this so badly. Just goes to show reading the chart and actually trading it are two different things.)

GBPCHF – This pair is at the top of the range and looks set for a decent swing trade short here. I usually like to trade this pair but the interventions last week by the SNB (in the middle of the night) means this is off my menu whilst EURCHF is at such low levels and further intervention is possible. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/05/142601/swiss-intervention-in-asia-overnight/   Price has to break and hold above 1.71 for me to change my bearish view. In the meantime I will switch my attention to EURGBP.

EURGBP – downtrend but like a rally here off the bottom of the weekly trendline. Longer term I am bearish this pair, and I would look to sell a rally to 88.53 (my target for a long). However a break of the rising daily trendline gets me short.

EURJPY – downtrend – this pair have broken out of the 9 month range. I am a seller of rallies looking at a rally to the SR level at 124.80 for a short entry. A corrective rally could get as high as 1.2730 Only a break and close above 129 changes my bearish view.


EURCHF – Downtrend but No, thank you

USDCHF – uptrend handily assisted by SNB. A bottom is in place confirmed by a higher low and higher high. I would buy a dip to 1.0645, or better 1.05 if it gets down that far. Only a break and close back below 1.05 changes my bullish view.

USDNOK – uptrend – Bottom is confirmed this week with a higher high to follow the lower low. I would be a buyer of dips and I am looking at pullbacks to 5.925 for an entry to give me a cushion trying for a break of the 6.00 level. Otherwise I would buy a break above and retest of 6.00 Below 5.80 is a no trading zone for me and a deeper correction could be forming.

USDSGD - uptrend - Similar chart to USDNOK a bottom is confirmed by a higher log and price is all set to break resistance and December 09 highs. A good looking inverse head and shoulders appears to have formed with a target of around 1.43. I would look for a pullback to 1.4120 / 1.4135 for a long entry. A bigger pullback to 1.40 is not impossible.

USDZAR - Uptrend, a bottom is not yet confirmed but looks possible and price has broken up out of its range. Price has stalled on a long term descending trend line from the high of October 08. Not a trade for me until it breaks this last line. I am neutral until then.

Friday 05 Feb - NFP

I'm expecting a quiet day after yesterday but waiting to see. 

CRUDE short 73.30 stop 73.65, first target yesterdays lows
GOLD short 1062.65 stop 1068 first target 1050
GBPJPY short 139.98 stop 140.48 target 137.5
GBPJPY stopped out (-1R)
CRUDE stopped out on a spike (-1R)
GOLD closed (-0.5R)

Open positions tonight (all 1/2 positions except gold & crude which are 1/4 positions):

CABLE short 1.5955 stop 1.6005
AUDUSD short 0.8874 stop 0.8904
EURUSD short 1.3934 stop 1.3962
USDCAD long 1.0605 stop 1.0575
GOLD short 1111 stop 1118.5
CRUDE short 76.63 stop 77.13
AUDJPY short 79.66 stop 80.06

Thursday 04 Feb

Still holding positions from yesterday.  GBP is quiet ahead of rate news and euro looks heavy.  I am looking to short crude today and add to gold short perhaps if dollar keeps rallying.
Crude daily chart:

CRUDE short 76.63 stop 77.13, target a retest of 75

GOLD short 1104.5 stop 1108 target 1095

AUDJPY short 79.66 stop 80.06 target 77

CABLE closed 50% @ 1.5805 (+1.5R)

GOLD (tod) closed 50% @ 1094 (+1.5R)

GOLD (yest) closed 50% @ 1088.5 (+1.5R)
CRUDE closed 50% @75.13 (+1.5R)

EURUSD closed 50% @ 1.3852 (+1.5R)

AUDUSD closed 50% @ 0.8784 (+1.5R)

AUDJPY closed 50% @ 0.7846 (+1.5R)

USDCAD closed 50% @ 1.0805 ~ 2xR (+1.0R)
GOLD (today) closed balance 50% @ 1091 (+1.92R)
GOLD (yest) closed further 25% @ 1068 (+1.43R)
CRUDE closed further 25% @ 73.32 (1.65R)

+16.5 R ... big day

Open positions tonight (all 1/2 positions except gold & crude which are 1/4 positions):
CABLE short 1.5955 stop 1.6005
AUDUSD short 0.8874 stop 0.8904
EURUSD short 1.3934 stop 1.3962
USDCAD long 1.0605 stop 1.0575
GOLD short 1111 stop 1118.5
CRUDE short 76.63 stop 77.13
AUDJPY short 79.66 stop 80.06

Wednesday 03 Feb 2010

After not the greatest start yesterday time to get sensible.
Nothing else looks like a great trade to me yet.  I am hoping that US employment numbers and crude inventories make it more interesting.

CABLE short 1.5955 stop 1.6005, TP 157
AUDUSD short 0.8874 stop 0.8904 TP 87
Crude short stopped out before I could post (-0.5R)
EURUSD short 1.3934 stop 1.3962 TP 138.50/1.3810
USDCAD long 1.0605 stop 1.0575 TP  / 1.07 / 1.17
GOLD short 1111 stop 1118.5 TP 1070
CRUDE short 77.21 stop 77.71 Target 75
CRUDE stopped out again (-1.0R)

-1.5R Today

Tuesday 02 February 2010

No trades yesterday, I really couldn't see anything that tempted me.  Consolidation everywhere zzz

USDJPY short 90.80, stop 91.10, target 88.95 / 88.20
GBPJPY short 144.40 stop 144.90 target 143 / 140
AUDCAD long 0.9330 stop 0.9290 target 94.20 - countertrend trade
USDCAD long 1.0596 stop 1.0556 target 1.0680 / 1.09
CRUDE short 74.98 stop 74.48 target 70
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0R)
USDCAD stopped out (-1.0R)
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0R)
AUDCAD closed 94.00 (+1.75R)
USDJPY stopped out 90.50 (+1.0R)

-0.25R total today

USDCAD daily chart:

Analysis and some charts

Time for me to get back to work!

Indices have had their biggest fall since before March of last year and the dollar rally is well and truly on.  I used to pile into trades at the beginning of the week but MacroMan mentioned an interesting Monday effect here which will make me more cautios and look harder for my entries: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/1/25/monday-bull-market-still-intactfor-now.html

Major numbers and therefore event risks this week are:
CNY - Manufacturing PMI Sunday night
AUD - RBA rate statement is due on Monday night (I think market has priced in a hike) followed by trade balance Tuesday night.
NZD - Labour costs Monday night & employment numbers Wednesday night
CAD - Ivey PMI Thursday, and monthly employment numbers Friday
GBP - Manufacturing PMI Monday, Halifax house prices Tuesday, Services PMI Wednesday and Thursday is the big day with rate statement, MPC monthly statement and Asset purchase numbers.  Friday is PPI.
EUR - ECB statement and Minimum Bid rate Thursday
CHF - A quiet week. The SNB like to do their work on Friday afternoon when London has gone home.  They may continue to meddle in EURCHF and USDCHF.
JPY - a pretty quiet news week

Dollar Index
A pretty good unptrend underway and on its way to round number resistance at 80, and pivot at 80.40 in the middle of a previous congestion zone.
(weekly chart)





Crude.  Continues to be very bearish with a break of the last major daily trendline support and a good hold below 75.  I am selling rallies and holding for a retest of $70, looking for a break of that and a break of the previous swing low in the 68.60 area.  Daily bearish engulfing candle, a solid move through 72.80, the 61.8 fib of the last swing and fibonacci expansions say we go to $70 at least.

Gold
Bearish correction, Gold poked its toe through the December low on Friday before closing above at 1080.  I stronger push would I am sure trigger some bigger stops and my initial target is 1055, the bottom of the descending channel and resistance becoming support on the October swing high.

Silver.  Downtrend continues with a weekly continuation and a daily inside bar above key support at 16.00
Daily trendline broke on the 4th touch and my initial target is support and weekly trendline support from the lows at 15.72

AUDUSD Bearish continuation.  I am bearish, the Head and shoulders pattern that broke in December projects a a target of 84.00 but in the shorter term I am a seller of rallies looking for a test of the previous swing low at 87.35

AUDJPY – strong downtrend- Last daily support line was broken last week and I am a seller of rallies with targets 78.86, 78 & 76.30

NZDUSD Continues to make lower lows and lower highs I am a seller of rallies looking for a retest of the December low around 69.70.  My targets are 69.70, 69.00 and 66.00

NZDJPY - strong downtrend, like AUDJPY I am a seller of rallies.  I would sell a retest of 63.44 and my downside targets are 62.35, 61.46 and 60.19

USDCAD.  Bullish, I think this might be my favourite trade.  Has bounced of the 78.6fib of the Nov07 low and March 09 high and closed back above the 61.8fib.
 I would buy a retest of the pivot at 1.0580 and my long term targets are 1.10 and 1.115 (61.8 fib retracement).



CADJPY – strong downtrend accelerating, I think this could go to the bottom of the range at 75. Price is consolidating above the pivot level at 83.70 and I would rallies (a retest of 85.80 maybe) or a break below this level.

AUDNZD – Uptrend, but not a trade for me.  Support at 1.24 and resistance at 1.2775

EURNZD – upwards correction in a downtrend.   I would sell off the 2.00 level.   A close above that might suggest a bottom in.  Below this level and I am a seller of rallies.

GBPAUD – uptrend, but this is close to the top of the range and I would be looking for price action to short here for a swing trade with good risk:reward.  A break south of Friday's inside bar would be an interesting entry. A break above the top of the range at 1.84 would have me looking for a long. First support is at 1.75 and price action there intraday would get me long.

AUDCHF - Strong uptrend has stalled and I like this on the short side.  I would sell a break of Fridays inside bar hoping for a break of the daily trendline support and a much bigger drop.  First support is at 92.50 and first resistance at 95.30

AUDCAD - Consolidating after week long uptrend, weekly lower high. Daily bearish but this is a good level to buy off for a good R;R trade.  Will wait until after AUD rate statement.

GBPUSD – down trend – Price broke a daily flag/ wedge and bounced tonight on support at 1.5930.  I would sell a retest of 1.60 from the underside or a break of the lows and my target is 1.57.
Support is at 1.5830 and 1.57, resistance at 1.6020, 1.6110 and 1.6180
A long term chart shows a possible diamond top on cable which would project a much bigger downside target below 1.50

GPBJPY – downtrend – I think this chart is setting up for a big drop but is trapped in a wedge at the moment.  I am a seller at the break at 1.4360 and I would also sell a rally off 1.4730 or 1.485 anticipating a break of the wedge.

GBPCHF –  uptrend but this pair is at the top of the range and a reversal or pullback is possible here. I like the risk:reward for a short and a swing trade and am looking for intraday price action to short.  Further intervention by the SNB to weaken the CHF might screw this up however.  A break above 1.71 and I would lose my view of a bearish correction and the uptrend would continue.

EURGBP – downtrend but like GBPCHF this looks like a swing low could be forming off the bottom of the long term triangle / wedge.  I like the risk reward for a long here.  I don't have an entry but I am looking for one.  Longer term I am bearish this pair, and a break of the daily support/trendline would get me in short, or a sell if there was price action off a rally to 88.50/89.00

EURUSD – strong downtrend - the break below 1.40 on Friday sets this one up for a further drop to the 50fib and support at 1.3800.  A break below 1.38 has further major support at 1.3750, 1.3650 and 1.35.  I am a seller of rallies and would look for a short entry in the 1.4050 area.  Above that and I would wait out a bigger correction and price action to sell.  Only a break above the last swing at 1.4583 changes my bearish view.

EURJPY – downtrend - this pair are right at the bottom of the 9 month range.  A break down below the April low at 124.37 lines up a much bigger drop to 1.15.   It's hard to see an entry unless you are already short right now.  I am a seller of rallies and looking at resistance at 125.80 and 127.10 for entries.  Above 127.10 and a bigger correction could be on the cards.

EURCHF - I don't really fancy trading against the SNB so I think I will pass :)

USDCHF – uptrend handily assisted by SNB intervention - A bottom is in place confirmed by a higher low and higher high.  The break above 1.05 puts 1.07 in the target.  I would buy a dip to 1.05, and a break below this I would buy the 1.04 level. 

USDJPY – Downtrend, contained within a downtrending channel, only a break above 9380 changes my view and I am a seller of rallies for now. 





USDNOK – uptrend - if the spread was better I would like this chart as much as USDCAD.  A bottom is in confirmed by a higher low and price has broken above strong resitance at 5.89.  I would be a buyer of dips and a dip to the 5.5.75 area with price action would get me long.  Resistance at 6.00

USDSGD - uptrend - Similar chart to USDNOK a bottom is confirmed by a higher log and price is all set to break resistance and December 09 highs.  A good looking inverse head and shoulders appears to have formed with a target of around 1.43.

USDZAR - sideways, a bottom appears to be forming but not confirmed and still rangebound.  Not a trade for me.