Friday 30 October 2009

Lots of US news later might mean a slow start until the US opens ... I am watching silver for possibilities of shorts ...

EURUSD short 1.4835 stop 1.4855 - addition
CRUDE short 79.84 stop 80.19 - break of overnight lows
AUDCAD addition (yesterday) stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30, break of 150 level
AUDJPY banked 50% @3xR 82.61 (+1.5%)
EURJPY banked 50% @3xR 134.50 (+1.5%)
EURUSD addition banked 50% @3xR 1.4775 (+1.5%)
CRUDE addition banked 50% @3xR 78.79 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 1.4870 (+1.5%)
USDCHF long 1.0237 stop 1.0207, 1hr IB (DIBS)
CRUDE addition balance banked 77.35 (+3.55%)
EURUSD addition closed 1.4730 (+2.62%)
USDCHF closed 1.0255 (+0.6%)

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 (1/2)
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010 (1/2)
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 (1/2)
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10
GBPJPY short 149.90 stop 150.30

Thursday 29 October 2009

S&P daily chart, X marks the spot:

AUDUSD closed balance 90.05 (+1.41%)

AUDCAD addition (Wed) stopped out (-1.0%)

GBPUSD short 1.6466 stop 1.6506 50% of weekly shooting star

GBPJPY closed 150.15 (+0.5%)

EURJPY closed 133.40 (+6.85%)

AUDJPY closed 81.80 (+3.86%)

USDJPY closed 90.80 (+2.22%)

GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)

I closed all the JPY trades when they broke out of the descending channels.

Asian session:

AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21, rejection of 84.00

EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10 -rejection of 136

AUDCAD short 0.9768 stop 0.98.03 - addition

Open positions:

CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 (1/2)
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010 (1/2)
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 (1/2) + 0.9768 stop 0.98.03
AUDJPY short 83.81 stop 84.21
EURJPY short 135.70 stop 136.10

Wednesday 28 October 2009

I went short USDJPY last night on the break of this trendline and support now resistance at 92.35



EURUSD short 1.4817 stop 1.4847 IB off prev support @ 1.4840
AUDCAD short 0.9719 stop 0.9739 - addition
GBPUSD short 1.6325 stop 1.6345, break of 1hr trendline
USDJPY banked 50% @3xR 91.09 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out - stop too tight (-1.0%)
EURUSD addition closed 1.47 support (+3.9%)
AUDUSD banked 50% @3xR (+1.5%)
CRUDE (Weds) addition closed 78.00 support (+3.75%)

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 (1/2)
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010  (1/2)
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855 (1/2)
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25 (1/2)
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85 (1/2)
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 (1/2) & 0.9719 stop 0.9739
USDJPY short 91.69 stop 91.89 (1/2)
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9158 (1/2)

Tuesday 26 October

The big risk off moves yesterday moved some products out of congestion ranges.

Gold is interesting for a pullback, a 50% retrace of the daily marabuzo is 1046 and I would look for price action to short.

I like Crude to continue south on a break of this support line (4hr chart): with a target of $75

EURUSD is consolidating above key support at 1.4840 and needs to break this level for my view to change to bearish.  I am holding my short.    Likewise USDCHF (chart left) needs to break 1.02 and upper trendline to get me long and AUDUSD 91.10 support to get me short.    USDCAD has broken key resistance at 1.0680 but until some more pairs break key levels it is just a countertrend pullback.

I am also watching the SnP to break a rising trendline from the March lows (daily chart):





Finally ... check out this level on AUDCAD:

AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845 - see above chart
AUDUSD short 0.9180 stop 0.9220 4hr Shooting Star
EURJPY short 136.96 stop 137.26 - addition
CRUDE short 79.50 stop 79.90 - off 50fib retrace
GOLD short 1037.60 stop 1039.60 - break of support
EURUSD short 1.4838 stop 1.4858 - addition
EURUSD addition closed 1.4798 (+2%)
EURJPY addition closed 135.80 (+3.86%)
AUDCAD banked 50% @3xR 97.45 (+1.5%)
GOLD short stopped out  (-1.0%)
AUDUSD closed 91.35 dbl bottom (+1.8%)
Asian session:
USDJPY short 91.69 stop 91.89 - break of support
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9158, target 0.9030 / 0.8980

+8.16
Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 & 79.50 stop 79.90
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85
AUDCAD short 0.9820 stop 0.9845
USDJPY short 91.69 stop 91.89
AUDUSD short 0.9118 stop 0.9158

Monday 26 October 2009

Asian session:
GBPJPY short 149.92 stop 150.32 break of 150 support - addition
GBPCHF short 1.6425 stop 1.6455 hourly IB (DIBs)
EURJPY short 137.98  stop 138.38 - break of 138 support
USDCAD (Fri) banked 50% @3xR 1.0536 (+1.5%)
GBPAUD short 1.7675 stop 1.7705 1hr IB (DIBs)
USDJPY long balance closed 91.65 (+1.5%)
London session:
GBPUSD (Fri) closed 1.6318 (+1.%)
GBPCHF stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 80.10 stop 80.50 - addition 50fib last swing
US Session:
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short (Fri) balance stopped out 80.60 (+0.5%)
GBPJPY addition stopped out (-1.0%)
EURJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPAUD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY short (Fri) closed 150.32 (+2.47%)
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15 tweezer top
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010 break of Fri low
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855 - trying again
CRUDE short addition 79.50 stop 79.80, break of Fri low
GBPUSD short 1.6364 stop 1.6394
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25
CRUDE addition closed 78.60 (+3%)
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85 trendline break
EURUSD banked 50% @3xR 1.4890 (+1.5%)
EURJPY banked 50% @3xR 137.15 (+1.5%)
GBPUSD stopped out again (-1.0%)

OK - I am not overtrading ... I have just been busy, really.
+6.97%

Open positions:
CRUDE short 80.85 stop 81.15
EURUSD short 1.4980 stop 1.5010
EURJPY short 138.20 stop 1.3855
GBPJPY short 150.70 stop 151.25
AUDJPY short 84.50 stop 84.85

Analysis and some charts, Sunday 25 October 2009

So Sterling took a beating Friday with negative GDP forecast when a positive one was expected. Prospects for more quantitative easing are increasing and prospects of a rate hike move even further out. Often Sunday nights / Monday morning the trend of Friday continues before being re-evaluated in the US session or on Turnaround Tuesday (aargh). Let’s see.

Event risks this week are US GDP and consumer confidence numbers, RBNZ rate announcement and AUD consumer prices.

Despite its strong downtrend the US Dollar was the strongest of the majors on Friday as the S&P, gold and oil and risk-on trades faltered. Lower time frames suggest the dollar index could stage a counter-trend correction going into this week. It has built a strong base against USDJPY. Weekly candle is a hammer type off the 75 level, the daily is a bullish confirmation of Thursday’s inverted hammer and the 4hrly shows a double bottom off 75 suggesting good support at this level or a counter-trend rally is possible.

Indices. The trend is bullish, but markets faltered for a second week. The S&P made new highs but failed to pass the important 1100 level and then pulled back to a weekly spinning top following on last weeks doji. The Dow broke 10000 but has resistance off the 1060 level and has formed a countertrend weekly shooting star. The S&P needs to close below 1075 to confirm more downside correction or above 1100 to confirm a breakout of this range.


Crude. Weekly doji, daily big bearish engulfing marabuzo following an inverted shooting star. Crude broke out of its bull flag Wednesday and broke the 80 level out of step with the indices. It looks to have just broken a rising trendline Friday afternoon which kept me in my short instead of closing it and I am watching for more confirmation of a countertrend pullback as we start the week. My short target is 75, a 50% retrace of this months high/lows and resistance becomes support off the September high, but I realise this is countertrend and we may not get that far.  Failure to break the prev low at 77.61 and I will step aside. 4hr chart -

Gold put in a weekly bearish shooting star type inside bar following a similar candle last week makes gold look toppy with two tight range weeks. It’s in a strong uptrend but stalled with a possible bull flag forming so I would like to see the 1024 level retested successfully before I got long, or a decisive break above 1075.

Silver has a bullish weekly inside bar and a much better looking bullflag forming. Like gold I would buy a dip or a break of the flag / weekly IB.

AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly bearish doji and daily is a sideways bull flag off the May 08 swing low at 0.9275. AUDUSD is well bid and next resistance is 0.9350 – the August 08 swing high, a break of this level and the 08 swing highs of 0.9850 are in range. 0.910 support looks strong at the moment and I would not be tempted to trade this countertrend above that level …

AUDJPY – uptrend - Weekly bullish and daily doji (pause). After breaking out long two weeks ago AUDJPY has been trading in a steep channel. It is presently at the top of that channel and I expect a pullback here. A break below 83.90 and I would be looking for support at 82.00 (also 50fib) for a long entry.

NZDUSD – uptrend - Weekly bullish continuation, made new yearly highs, daily bull flag. Next resistance is 0.765 and a break above means a retest of the 08 highs at 0.8215 could be on the cards. I would not consider a countertrend short without a break below 0.7480 and target first resistance at 0.7310

NZDJPY – uptrend – Weekly and daily strong bullish continuation, this pair is approaching key resistance and 50fib level at 91.00 and I am watching price action here for direction.

AUDNZD – Pass – haha there are much better opportunities out there, unless the RBNZ rate announcement surprises …

USDCAD – downtrend - Weekly bullish continuation of last weeks countertrend hammer, daily is inside bar in a tightening range / flag. I am countertrend long this pair, looking for price action at 1.06 / 1.0650 for price action to reverse with the trend or continue.

CADJPY – rangebound - weekly is bullish continuation, daily is bullish continuation but well below the highs of the week and I would not be surprised to see more downside correction. I would pass on this one; there are better opportunities out there.

EURNZD – downtrend - Weekly hammer type candle at new lows, daily bearflags this pair is in a step climb down and a sell on rallies. 

GBPAUD – downtrend – weekly bearish, daily bearish marabuzo. Price is moving back with the trend after a modest pullback. Sell on rallies until the trend changes looking for a break of the previous low at 1.73.


GBPUSD – down trend – weekly bearish shooting star has closed back below a descending trend line that it broke up from, daily bearish marabuzo. This is a sell on rallies or a break of Friday lows with my targets 1.62, 1.61 and a break of 1.61 suggests a retest of the lows. Cable appears to be trading a range between 1.6735 and 1.5780 and is today trading mid range and at June 01st levels … which suggests the range is right where someone wants it.

GPBJPY – downtrend – Weekly long legged doji, daily bearish engulfing off descending trend line and a close back below the 50fib of the Aug highs and September lows.  I am short and have an order to add on a break of the 150 level. My targets are 147 and 145.50

GBPCHF – downtrend – Weekly sideways consolidation / bearflag in strong downtrend. I am a seller of rallies looking for this to retest the lows and 1.61 and continue down.

EURGBP – uptrend – Weekly bullish hammer type candle, daily bullish marabuzo off the 90.00 level. Possible head and shoulders forming. Chart remains bullish and a buy on dips.

EURUSD – uptrend - Weekly bullish continuation, daily sideways consolidation at 150 level with rallies extending to 150.60. Key support is 1.4830 and next resistance at 1.5185 and then 1.5240 (78.6fib retracement of the highs to lows).


EURJPY – sideways - weekly bullish continuation, daily bullish continuation. This pair is at key resistance (138.75), triple top and my favourite trade for a reversal. I will try and sell this level because I think the R:R is pretty good, targeting the bottom of the range at 129.75 which is also trend line and fib resistance. Resistance is at 136, 135.50 and 134.40. A break above 138.75 is a big range breakout for this pair and I would buy a pullback and retest of this level.

EURCHF - sideways – Pass.

USDCHF – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation, daily consolidating at new 2009 lows just above the parity level 1.00 Trend is still strongly bearish and the consolidation right above the level suggests a break or test below could be not far off. 1.003 is the low and 1.0037 is the 100% fib extension of the drop so a bounce is possible also.


USDJPY – Up trend – Weekly bullish continuation, daily continuation with key resistance at 92 – 92.55. I am long but have tightened my stop as a reversal to the longer term down trend is not out of the question at this level.

USDNOK – downtrend - Weekly bearish inside bar, daily bearish consolidation above the 5.50 level. This has come a long way without correction but is still a sell on rallies or a break of the 5.50 level.

USDSGD - downtrend - weekly inside bars, daily sideways consolidation below the 1.40 level support broken at the beginning of the month. Price is in a range between 1.40 and 1.3850 for the past three weeks and I am watching for a breakout trade.

USDZAR - sideways, long term downtrend – weekly & daily sideways consolidation above the August 08 lows at 7.20. I still like this long if the indices correct down and the dollar rallies. The spread is ugly but the R:R looks really good so I am still watching for a break of the descending weekly resistance line.

Friday 23 October

I have been really slow with the blog this week.  I have not been trading so much either, normal service will be resumed next week.
I stuck a USDCAD long on last night because it looked really good as I was going to bed and it worked.
This morning, before the UK GDp news came out I was getting so excited about the weekly trendline on GBPJPY and shorting it off the 1.53 price and fib level, I completely forgot about my EURGBP short!
Anyhow I had an order for GJ short that got triggered on the ugly GDP news and that has paid for my error forgetting EURGBP.

USDCAD long 1.0476 stop 1.0456 target 1.059
EURGBP balance stopped out (-0.5%)
GBPJPY short 152.79 stop 1.5329 target 146 & 141
GBPJPY banked 50% @3xR 151.29 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short 81.00 stop 81.40, break of support, target 80
GBPUSD short 1.6368 stop 1.6418 hourly IB (DIBS)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 80.00 (+1.25%)

Open positions:
USDJPY long 90.75 stop 90.45
GBPJPY short 152.79 stop 1.5329
CRUDE short 81.00 stop 81.40
GBPUSD short 1.6368 stop 1.6418
USDCAD long 1.0476 stop 1.0456

GBPJPY weekly

Thursday 22 October

Slow trading day for me as I have to be in the city most of today and I don't want a load of positions I have to worry about. 
I am watching the level that GBPCHF is bouncing off and wondering whether my EURGBP was so smart after all.  Stop is paid for so will leave it for now.

GBPUSD short 1.6570 stop 1.6610 break of overnight support
CRUDE closed 80.00, 50% retrace of daily marabuso (3.75%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)

Open positions:
EURGBP short 90.90 stop 91.15
USDJPY long 90.75 stop 90.45

Wednesday 21 October

I am holding short on Crude, Gold expecting some more sell off today,  It is hard to see a setup in currencies that I like except perhaps the daily EURGBP short & USDJPY long (will post a chart later).  USDCAD a buy on dips and the flag building up on EURJPY.

EURGBP short 90.90 stop 91.15 target 89.00
GBPUSD (yesterday) stopped out (-1.0%)
GOLD short 1059 stop 1060 - addition @50fib retrace
CRUDE short 78.90 stop 79.15 - addition, rejection of $79
USDJPY long 90.75 stop 90.45 - 4hr hammer
EURGBP banked 50% @3xR 90.15 (+1.5%)
GOLD addition banked 50% @3xR 1056 (+1.5%)
USDCAD long 1.0530 stop 1.0480 break of resistance
CRUDE addition banked 50% @3xR 78.15 (+1.5%)
EURUSD (yesterday) stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE addition balance stopped out (-0.5%)
EURJPY long 1.3609 stop 1.3579, flag breakout
GOLD addition closed 1055 market reversal (+2.0%)
USDCAD stopped out - fakeout breakout (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 79.50 stop 79.80 Bearish inventories - addition
CRUDE addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GOLD (yesterday) closed 1058 (0.6%)
CRUDE balance stopped out (-0.5%)
EURJPY closed 136.69 (+2%) - equities sell off
Close:
GBPJPY short 151.31 stop 1.5157 - dbl top @50fib level
CRUDE short 81.50 stop 81.80 1hr BEOB target 80
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)

I completely screwed the execution of the crude trades today, I was too slow to move my stops and protect profit.

Open positions:
EURGBP short 90.90 stop 91.15
USDJPY long 90.75 stop 90.45
CRUDE short 81.50 stop 81.80

Tuesday October 20th

Time to get back to work ...

Cable is right at that level for me.  1.64500 and a descending trendline that goes back to the July08 swing high.  After a monster rally for sterling against everything it might be time for ... Turnaround Tuesday!!!

Crude broke out last week of a long time bull flag and has put in a 13day rally, almost a record. Interestingly much of the move at the end of last week when equities were falling off and the dollar was gaining some ground.  Inventories last week were not that bullish, a big drop in gasoline at a time when the refineries output is almost at post-hurricane levels because of seasonal maintenance.  Perhaps a short squeeze, I might be looking for a cheeky countertrend short here.  Or a pullback to buy ...  Price has broken 80, let's see if it can hold above.  Today could be volatile with inventories (expecting a drop) and the last day of the Nov contract.

GBPUSD short 1.6430 stop 1.6460
GBPJPY short 147.99 stop 1.4839 1hr bearish engulfing
CRUDE short 79.90 stop 80.30 target 79.40 & rising support line ...
GBPJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
EURGBP short 0.9099 stop 0.9119, bear flag break
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 78.70 (+1.5%)
GOLD short 1061 stop 1066 - I am loading up
EURUSD short 1.4950 stop 1.4990, 4hr IB - dollar rally
GBPUSD short 1.6365 stop 1.6405, 4hr SS & trendline break
EURGBP stopped out (-1.0%)

EURGBP daily and 4hr charts:

Crude chart:

Thursday 16 October

I am taking a couple of days off so just sorting out some positions before I do.
Good trading!

GBPUSD balance of short (1.6090) closed @1.6030 break of resist (+0.75%)
GBPUSD balance of short (1.6399) closed @ 1.6030 break of resist (+5.27%)
GBPCHF balance of short (1.6437) closed @ 1.6280 (+2.18%)
USDNOK balance of short (5.6360) closed @ 5.5236 (+2.81%)

+11.01%
Open Positions - none

Wednesday 14 October

Crude just made new highs for the year and all the commodity currencies are at new highs along with the S&P. 
My cable position is looking vulnerable as USD weakness continues.  Price has bounced of the weekly 1.57 level and although it's too early for a bullish reversal I am waiting to see what happens when 1.60 is tested from underneath to re-evaluate.
USDJPY is indecisive and the bullish correction is stalling which is holding down GBPJPY so holding short there.  GBPCHF remains bearish but consolidating.
USDCHF looks to have good bearish momentum with support at 1.0166 before the big 1.000 level
EURUSD is strongly bullish after a pennant breakout overnight and my key support is 1.48 so I will watch price action at a pullback to there.
The commodity currencies are buys on dips ...

CRUDE short 74.88 stop 75.08 - countertrend
GBPAUD short 1.7448 stop 1.7508 target 1.7325
USDNOK banked 50% @3xR 5.5760 (+1.5%)
GBPAUD stopped out - employment news (-1.0%)
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF short 1.6235 stop 1.6260, Ihr IB target 1.6115
GBPCHF addition stopped out (-1.5%)

-1.5% today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6437, targets 1.60500, 1.58
USDNOK short 5.636

Tuesday 13 October 2009

EURNZD short 1.9998 stop 2.0068 target last weeks low 198.37 first
GBPAUD short 1.7375 stop 1.7425 target 1.70
GBPUSD short 1.5761 stop 1.5801 - bear flag break see chart below
GBPAUD stopped out (-1.0%)
EURNZD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY (Mon) stopped out breakeven

That's that, I am limit down and no more trading today!
The holiday yesterday confused me.  Today is "Turnaround Tuesday" and look what happened.

Cable 1hr

-3.0% today
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6437, targets 1.60500, 1.58
USDNOK short 5.636

In happier news some little people ate their first real meal today, and got very messy:

Monday October 12 - Holiday

I am taking a holiday today so just checking in to update my trades and will be back tomorrow.

GBPCHF banked 50% @3xR 1.6329 (+1.5%)
USDJPY (02Oct) short balance stopped out (-0.5%)
CRUDE (08Oct) short balance stopped out (-0.5%)
USDCAD short 1.0380 stop 1.0405 target 1.0320
USDCAD closed 1.0335 - will wait for a better entry (+1.8%)
GBPJPY short 142.48, stop 142.78 , 1st target 141 (see chart below)
USDNOK short 5.636 stop 5.656 anticipating a break of Fri lows ...

+2.3%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6437, targets 1.60500, 1.58

What I am watching:

A break of this pennant in GBPJPY:

4hr chart

A break of the 2.00 level in EURNZD:
daily chart




It's Thanksgiving and my friend Stacy came over and helped feed puppies so I could cook turkey.

Charts and analysis, 11 October 2009

Risk appetite seems to be growing this week as the commodity (risk) currencies all made new highs for the year and the dollar broke a key weekly support at 76 although clawing back at the end of the week. Stocks are on the verge of new highs, gold is already at new highs and crude looks set to retake the $75 level. Exuberance everywhere, except for the poor old Pound.

USD index weekly has a weekly bullish hammer and the tails of the last few weeks suggest some support at the 76 level although it was breached this week and recovered. After two weeks of sideways consolidation for the dollar the decline appeared to accelerate again this week. Shorter term it managed to rally Friday bit only a break above last weeks high of 77.25 would suggest a short term bottom at the 76 level.

Indices – all had strong bullish weeks. The S&P broke out of a daily bull flag forming since the September highs and is all set to retest them, the Dax, Nikkei, CAC, FTSE all found support off a daily rising trend-line and are set to retest the highs. I would be hoping for a double top bounce down but the trend is clearly up …

Crude – uptrend - Weekly bullish continuation, daily bullish inside bar. Price is at the top of the descending bull flag range and had a bullish week on the back of a weak dollar and a more positive demand forecast than we have had for a while and despite trade date showing US petroleum imports at a 3 month low. . I am waiting to see if it breaks out of the channel or if the upper range limit holds.

Gold – uptrend - weekly bullish marabuzo but daily hammer followed by an inside bar. Gold faced some selling pressure Friday as the dollar rallied off its weekly lows following Bernanke comments that the US interest rate may rise sooner than expected. Gold is only at new yearly highs versus the USD and the price is only a result of USD weakness. Against the Australian dollar Gold is 25% off the February highs. Gold seems to have been a hedge against the dollar drop and so any reversal in the dollar makes gold vulnerable.
I would not short the daily shooting star of Thursday but instead would buy on price action on a retrace to the 50fib and previous resistance at $1024.

Silver – uptrend - has lagged gold but still at new highs for the year in USD terms. Like gold it is a buy on dips and I am looking for price action at a 50fib retrace to 16.80 and watching keeping an eye on the dollar index for direction.

AUDUSD – uptrend - weekly bullish marabuzo breakout took Aussie to new highs and above the psychological 90.00 level, daily inside bar with almost no retrace the Aussie is the strongest of all the major currencies and a buy on dips. Price is sitting on the centerline of a rising channel from the January lows. Resistance levels are 92.00 (04.14/08 low) 92.80 (May 08 low) and 93.24 (June 08 low). Only a pullback below 85.65 and previous swing low would suggest a top.

AUDJPY – uptrend – Price has broken out from a long time range and above significant 80.00 level (although still below August highs) so this is a buy on dips. Support should be strong at or just above the 80.00 breakout level and I would buy on price action.

NZDUSD – uptrend – Same pattern as the AUDUSD, strongly bullish but held below the centerline of the rising channel from the January lows and what was support in June 2008 at 74.44 just below the psychological level of 75.00 which is also the 78.6 fib of the 08 extreme high / lows and for this reason I would pass on this one for now and watch what happens next week.

NZDJPY – uptrend – Weekly strong bullish continuation, daily bullish but still below the highs of two weeks ago. This is a buy on dips for me (I am watching 65.500), target 69.10.

AUDNZD – downtrend – Price is consolidating after an apparent double bottom and has broken up through a descending trendline. I would buy a retest of 1.22 breakout point and then look for price action at 1.24 to sell again. Except I hate this pair almost as much as EURCHF so I will pass!

USDCAD - downtrend - Weekly bearish and daily bearish marabuzo’s price has broken down through psychological support at 1.05. After lagging and being the weakest of the commodity currencies for a while CAD took off this week. It’s a sell on rips target 1.0317 and the 61.8fib extension level. If that level goes then the next support is 1.0270 and the December 07 highs. Only a rally above 1.0670 would change my view to bullish.

CADJPY – Uptrend – weekly bullish marabuzo and breakout of descanding trendline, price broke resistance at 86.07. This is a buy on dips. I would buy on price action retests of support at 84.90, 84.30 and 83.11

EURCAD – downtrend– Weekly and daily bearish and break of rising trendline support. Sell on rallies, or retest of breakout level at 1.56 area

EURNZD - downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation after a weekly doji pause. Daily dropped below the psychological 2.000 level but has rallied back through. Sell a retest of the previous lows 2.0280 from underneath.

NZDCHF - same as EURNZD but opposite ... its a buy.

GBPAUD – strong downtrend – Price is approaching all time low levels and risk of reversal is high but no indication of it yet. Sell on rallies until the trend changes.

GBPUSD – down trend – weekly bearish inside bar, daily bearish marabuzo this is a sell on rallies, my target is now the 28Sep wick low at 1.5767 and I am looking for a break there to continue further.

GPBJPY – downtrend – Weekly double inside bar and daily consolidates sideways in a bear flag pattern above 1.40. Price broke the neckline at 146.80 and if the pattern holds it could put GBPJPY back in the 120’s. On the daily there is a potential double bottom in place but I am still bearish and sell on rallies. A break of the flag long, above 144.60, and I change to bullish with a target of 1.49 where previous support could become resistance.

GBPCHF – downtrend – Weekly double inside bar, daily bearish marabuzo following a shooting star, price is consolidating in a bear flag pattern above the 61.8fib retracement level. Sell on rallies or break down of the flag, target 1.50

AUDCHF - Uptrend - Weekly and daily stongly bullish marabuzo candles, the weekly taking out the previous week’s long shooting star tail and breaking the range of the past 9 weeks. Buy on dips only.

EURGBP – stong uptrend – Weekly and daily charts are strongly bullish but Friday’s long bullish candle close puts a potential double top in play off the 93 level. I am passing and waiting for more information.

EURUSD – uptrend – Price is consolidating at new highs and a potential short term dbl top is in play however, on the monthly chart EURUSD has put in 6 consecutive higher lows and could be setting up a seventh. Price is above the 61.8fib retracement of the 08/09 high/lows and while 1.50 is psychological resistance the technical resistance is at 1.52. So although the counter trend short off a double top is tempting until the trend changes this is a buy on dips. Above 1.4480 and short term uptrend is intact. Below 1.4175 puts a stop to the consecutive monthly higher lows.

EURJPY – sideways - weekly in the middle of a multi week range, this could be forming a bull flag but I need more information. I’m going to pass for now.

EURCHF - sideways – Pass.

USDCHF – downtrend - Weekly bullish hammer in a sideways range, daily could be trying to make a higher low here but like the possible double top in EURUSD it is against a strong trend and not enough information yet. I am watching this one closely though, I prefer to go long USDCHF than short EURUSD. A retest of the 1.055 levels from the underside might show the way.

USDJPY – downtrend – 2nd weekly bullish hammer in a row in a strong longer term downtrend, daily bullish marabuzo. Although this is a strong long term downtrend a corrective bounce is due price is sitting right up against a steep short term descending resistance line.  A break of this line and a possible double bottom could see a move up to 92.50. However I am holding a short targeting 87.00 (although much less confident after the strong buying activity at the option barrier at 88.00)

USDNOK – downtrend - Weekly bearish continuation following a doji pause, daily bearish continuation after again making new lows for the year. This is a sell on rallies or a retest of 5.75 from underneath. Price is coming up on the Jan 08 highs and resistance may become support at 5.62 / 5.578 so watching for price action there.

USDSGD - downtrend - weekly very bearish marabuzo break of previous weeks doji and new lows for the year, daily consolidation sideways in a bear flag pattern. This is a sell on rallies and if price retraces I am looking for price action at 1.4050 area to short.

USDZAR - sideways, long term downtrend - weekly sideways bearish, daily could be putting in a double bottom here. I still like this long if the indices correct down and the dollar rallies. The spread is ugly but the R:R looks really good so I am still watching and waiting ...

Friday 09 October

I am pretty cross with myself today, I missed some good opportunities this week.  I got behind with my analysis and then behind through the week and behind looking at daily charts.  I am looking at some of them now and kicking myself.  Next week will be better.

The dollar index is interesting.  We breached key support at 76 yesterday and then pulled back above it.  How the weekly closes is important now. Below 76 and the dollar is going to find it tough going for a bit but a dollar rally today gives us another weekly hammer off this level.

I am looking at the daily double top in EURUSD and the hourly bearflag off a pivot.  I am not trading it because I would have liked to see it break with some momentum earlier and it is so closely correlated to the indices and every dip is bought that I will probably leave it for today rather than have my shorts eaten in the US session.  I will see. It (and USDCHF) do have some trendline resistance to break as well so I may wait for a break of that and take USDCHF instead.   I did expect more Euro negative statements from Mr Trichet yesterday but it turned into a big fat nothing.  There seems to be very little momentum in the markets this morning, maybe its just me.

GBPUSD short (Thurs) banked 50% @3xR 1.5970 (+1.5%)
EURGBP stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPJPY short 142.43 stop 1.4283 - addition, 1hr trendline break
CHFJPY short 86.40 stop 86.70, 1st target 85.50
EURNZD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
EURNZD (Mon) closed 1.9950 (+3.08%)
CRUDE (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 70.95 (+1.5%)
CHFJPY stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPCHF short 1.6437 stop 1.6473, 1hr bearflag break

+3.08%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
USDJPY short 89.48
CRUDE short 72.00
GBPCHF short 1.6437

Thursday 08 October

I'm a little bit late today because I could not see anything I wanted to trade earlier.
Strong moves up in equities and good Aussie employment news powered up the commodity currencies and pulled up EURUSD with it overnight.   Gold chipped in and provided extra power to crush the USD.
Crude is not having any of it so far and is stuck at the 50fib of the last swing hi/lo which is tempting me short.
Cable has just broken 1.6050 but I am still bearish.
I also like the daily double top on EURGBP .... but I am going to sit on my hands and wait for the BoE and ECB rate statements in a couple of hours.
Here is the weekly and daily charts:

USDJPY banked Wed addition (89.15) @ 88.25 (+2.25%)
CRUDE short 70.30 stop 70.60 - addition
EURGBP short 92.10 stop 92.35 off daily dbl top
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 69.40 (+1.5%)
EURNZD short 1.9951 stop 1.9996 - addition
CRUDE stopped out balance (-0.5%)
CRUDE stopped out balance Weds short (-0.5%)
GBPJPY  Weds short stopped out (-1.0%)
EURJPY Weds short stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short 72.00 stop 72.35 - top of channel
GBPUSD short 1.6090 stop 1.6130, off prev high daily trendline & 50fib

GBPUSD daily chart:

+0.75%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.6090 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep)  targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURNZD short 2.0320 & 1.9951
USDJPY short 89.48
EURGBP short 92.10
CRUDE short 72.00

PS - Please no more messages about why I have not bought any gold.  Gold is for goldbugs, tinhatters and Trader Dante.  Armageddon is not coming and when it does Gold won't help you. 
Trader Dante -

Wednesday 07 October

Sterling looks toast today and EUR, CHF and the commodity currencies,  like gold, are stubbornly bullish and a buy on dips.   USDJPY takes her sweet time getting to my targets but looks to do it today.
I am hoping GBPJPY breaks 140 today and wishing I added to this trade :)

The S&P looks to be breaking out from a bullflag to retest the highs, taking out the 61.8fib, daily chart:.
Gold is back at the highs - Not good for the USD

Alternatively the S&P could just be retesting the underside of a support line that it broke before continuing down further ... hmmmm

Scenario three of course is that we just sit here today and wait for earnings season to kick off tonight with Alcoa ....

Here is a 4hr crude chart, I am waiting for it to show its hand.  A weak dollar should pop it out of this channel but it doesn't want to go.  I have not placed any new trades today, I really am waiting to see.  I just don't get Gold.

It looks as though we may have a double bottom or at least some support in the dollar index ... 1 hr chart:

USDJPY (05 Oct) banked 50% @3xR 88.58 (+1.5%)
GBPCHF (02 Oct) closed balance 1.6370 (+1.7%)
NZDJPY (04 Oct) closed balance 64.90 (+1.16%)
GBPUSD short 1.5895 stop 1.5925 - addition
USDCAD (Tues) balance closed 1.0560 (+0.95%)
CRUDE short 71.20 stop 71.55 target 70 (50fib)
USDJPY short 89.15 stop 89.35, addition @ 61.8fib retracement
GBPJPY short 141.95 stop 142.35, addition off 142 and prev support
EURJPY short 130.50 stop 130.80 target 129
GBPUSD (today) stopped out (-1.0%)
CRUDE short banked 50% @3xR 70.15 (+1.5%)
USDJPY addition banked 50% @3xR 88.55 (+1.5%)

+7.31%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) + 1.5895 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) & 141.95 targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURJPY short 130.50
EURNZD short 2.0320
USDJPY short 89.48 & 89.15

Tuesday 06 October

US dollar is being taken to the woodshed a bit today ... The Aussies raised rates 0.25% the first ones to do so and the commodity currencies are catching some bids.  AUDUSD & NZDUSD at new highs and USDCAD sitting on support.  Sterling as usual is lagging ... the indices are rallying.
If the dollar keeps going then crude should break out of this flag but its really not tempting me.

GBPCHF (02Oct) banked 50% @3xR 1.6390 (+1.5%)

AUDUSD balance stopped out (-0.5%)

CRUDE short 71.05, stop 71.55 1hr bearish engulfing

CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)

USDCAD short 1.0598 stop 1.0618 break of round number support

CRUDE short 70.97 stop 71.37 - trying again

USDCAD banked 50% @3xR 1.0538 (+1.5%)

CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)

+0.5% today

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6540
NZDJPY long 64.27
EURNZD short 2.0320
USDJPY short 89.48
USDCAD short 1.0598

Monday 05 October

I have not been able to trade much today as life got in the way.  So just managing current trades and I will update and repost analysis tonight.

EURNZD short 2.0320 stop 2.0380 - 4hr IB
CRUDE short (Fri) banked 50% @3xR 68.49 (+1.5%)
NZDJPY long (Sun) banked 50% @3xR 65.08 (+1.5%)
EURNZD short banked 50% @3xR 2.0140 (+1.5%)
CRUDE short (Fri) stopped out balance @ 70.40 (-0.5%)
EURUSD short (30Sep) stopped out balance (-0.5%)
USDJPY short 89.48 stop 89.78 target 87

+3.5%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
GBPCHF short 1.6540
AUDUSD short 0.8799
NZDJPY long 64.27
EURNZD short 2.0320
USDJPY short 89.48

Sunday 04 October

GBPJPY (Thu) closed balance 142.66 - daily hammer (+0.42%)
USDCAD (Fri) stopped out (-1.0%)
CADJPY (Thu) closed 82.82 - daily hammer (+1.85%)
USDJPY(Thu)  closed 89.50 - daily hammer (+1.0%)
GBPUSD (Fri) addition stopped out (-1.0%)
NZDJPY long 64.27 stop 64.00 - daily bullish piercing line
AUDUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)

Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep) targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURUSD short 1.4655
GBPCHF short 1.6540
AUDUSD short 0.8799
CRUDE short 69.90
NZDJPY long 64.27

Friday October 02, NFP

Many distractions the last 24 hrs ... so I am a bit behind.

AUDJPY short 77.74 stop 78.04 traget 70.00
GBPCHF short 1.6540 stop 1.6590 target 1.6218
CRUDE short 69.90 stop 70.40 target 65.00
EURJPY (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 129.70 (+1.5%)
GBPJPY (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 141.88 (+1.5%)
USDJPY (Thu) banked 50% @3xR 88.90 (+1.5%)
CRUDE banked 50% @3xR 68.40 (+1.5%)
EURUSD short 1.4580 stop 1.4605 - addition @ swing 50fib
EURUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD long 1.0847 stop 1.0807 - bullish piercing line candle
AUDUSD short 0.8685 stop 0.8705 - addition
GBPUSD short 1.5882 stop 1.5922 - addition - evening star
GBPUSD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
USDCAD addition stopped out (-1.0%)
GBPUSD short 1.5935 stop 1.5955 - trying again
USDCAD long 1.0822 stop 1.0792 - trying again
EURJPY stopped out (-1.0%)

I have not managed my positions very well at all today.  I did not expect the sell off after bad NFP to be followed by such a quick reversal.

+2.0%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.5935 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep)& 143.08 targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURUSD short 1.4655
GBPCHF short 1.6540
USDJPY short 89.80
AUDUSD short 0.8799 & 0.8685
CADJPY short 83.93
USDCAD long 1.0822
CRUDE short 69.90

Thursday 01 October

Tower top and a big trendline break in the SnP today and we have not got to NFP yet!  A correction at last.

USDJPY (30Sep) stopped out (-1.0%)
EURUSD (30Sep) banked 50% @3xR 1.4595 (+1.5%)
AUDUSD short 0.8799 stop 0.8824 countertrend target 0.8724
CADJPY short 83.93 stop 84.23 - see daily chart
CRUDE short 69.98 stop 70.48 - see H4 chart
CRUDE stopped out (-1.0%)
AUDUSD banked 50% @3xR 0.8724 (+1.5%)
CADJPY banked 50% @3xR 83.03 (+1.5%)
USDJPY short 89.80 stop 90.10 target 87.00
EURJPY short 130.60 stop 130.90 news trade
GBPJPY short 143.08 stop 143.48 - addition

+2.5%
Open Positions:
GBPUSD short 1.6399 (23Sep) & 1.5999 targets 1.58, 1.5530, 1.5250
GBPJPY short 148.45 (24 Sep)& 143.08 targets 141, 140.60, 139
EURUSD short 1.4655
USDJPY short 89.80
AUDUSD short 0.8799
EURJPY short 130.60
CADJPY short 83.93


Market antidote - chocolate: