Back soon

Sorry for the lack of posts.  I have got a bit run down and not feeling too brilliant.  Back soon I hope.

I am tightening up dollar long positions ahead of the G20 meeting this week (I am stopped out of my USDJPY long already) but short EUR vs GBP still looks good.

NFP Friday

The last four jobs numbers days have been sell offs and it is Friday.  After massive breakout days yesterday I would not be surprised to see a round of profit taking following the jobs report today.

My trades as of last night were:
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820

EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33
USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 PT 82.50

USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03

Today:

EURUSD short 1.4190 stop 1.4250 PT 1.40 / 1.30
USDCHF stopped out - not a smart trade, going to wait on this one. (-1R)
Crude short 86.80 stop 87.20 PT 85

Waiting for the bearded clam

Well elections over, economic data is coming in surprisingly good but none of it really matters until we get the announcement later of how much, how quickly and see what the market makes of it.

I am waiting to buy dollars on any spike lower.

My favoured pairs are USDCHF (I like the monthly hammer - see chart) but it has to break back above the previous trendline support around the 1.00 parity level.  One to watch.
CHF is weak across the board, the double bottom in GBPCHF and the big bounce in EURCHF make it the best looking for now.
USDJPY is starting to show signs of a reversal but much will depend on what happens in bonds and we will have to wait for the QE2 announcement for that.

Until FOMC I am scalping crude.
Post inventories:
Crude short 85.00 stop 85.35 PT 83.00 / 80.00
Crude short closed 50% @3R 83.95 (+1.5R)
GBPAUD long closed 50% @3R 1.6150 (+1.5R)
USDCHF long stopped out balance 0.9740 (+0.5R)
GBPAUD long stopped out balance 1.6050 (+0.5R)
AUDCAD short stopped out (-1R)
EURSGD stopped out (-1R)

Open trades:

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

Crude short 85.00 stop 85.35 PT 83.00 - 1/2 position
-----------------------------------------------------

THURSDAY update:
Crude short balance stopped out (-0.5R)
Silver long 25.10 stop 23.90 PT 26.20
EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820
CRUDE long 85.90 stop 85.60 PT 87.00
EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33
Silver long closed 50% @3R 25.70 (+1.5R)
Silver long closed balance @ target 26.20 (+2.75R)
Crude long closed 50% @3R 86.80 (+1.5R)
EURCHF short closed 50% @3R 1.3610 (+1.5R)
Crude long closed 86.60 - EOD pre NFP (+1.3R)
EOD trades:
USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 - pre BoJ PT 82.50
USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03

Open positions EOD:
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short addition 0.8785 stop 0.8820

EURCHF short 1.3760 stop 1.3810 PT 1.33

USDJPY long 80.60 stop 80.50 PT 82.50

USDCHF long 0.9570 stop 0.9550 PT 0.98 / 1.03

After all these breakouts I am posting long term charts with targets tonight.

US Midterm election day.

The market has historically done well on election day (the Tuesday after the first Monday of November) and during election week. Since 1900, the Dow has averaged a gain of 0.28% on election day versus the average change of 0.03% for all trading days since 1900.
With the big FOMC meeting tomorrow I am not expecting any breakouts of these ranges or any that will have any follow through.

Australia unexpectedly raised interest rates tonight after a 5month pause, citing rising inflation concerns medium term, the reduced risk of lower growth in China and the minutes also say  “the economy faces large expansionary shock from terms of trade.”

I don't expect to be doing much trading today ahead of tomorrows decision but will be doing some chart study and post setups here.


EURUSD stopped out balance 1.3970 (+0.5R)
New trade (US session):
GBPAUD long 1.60 stop 1.5950 PT 1.62 / 1.66
CRUDE short 83.80 stop 84.20 PT 82.50 / 80.00
AUDCAD re-shorted 1.009 stop 1.12 PT 0.98 / 0.955
CRUDE short stopped out (-1R)

Open trades:

USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70

AUDCAD re-shorted 1.009 stop 1.12 PT 0.98 / 0.955

GBPAUD long 1.60 stop 1.5950 PT 1.62 / 1.66

Monday 01 November

I haven't posted any charts this week yet because everything seems to be on hold and range trading until Wednesdays FOMC announcement.  Tomorrow's US elections look like a given with Republicans getting more seats.
EUR is weak across the board this morning as the stories of problems in the peripheries won't go away.
US markets might be rattled  by news of bond insurer Ambac missing a coupon payment and could be bankrupt within a month. (ABK is down nearly 55% this morning)

I am sticking with my theory that the dollar is making a base for a bounce here, that bonds are due to correct lower and that equities still look bullish and the dollar and stocks could rally together for a couple of weeks.  All of this is irrelevant if we get a giant bazooka of QE on Wednesday but so much seems to be expected / priced in for QE that it is hard to see that the news will be anything other than a sell event.

I will post charts Wednesday morning pre FOMC and we will see where we are then.
Note to self - today is a Pomo day (although there have been some signs of pomo fatigue lately, this is also Momo Monday)

New trade:
EURUSD short 1.40 stop 1.4030 - top of wedge - PT 1.3770
EURUSD short closed 50% @3R 1.3910 (+1.5R)
CRUDE short 83.65 stop 83.85 PT 81.00
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 83.05 (+1.5R)
AUDCAD stopped out balance (-0.5R) post RBA rate hike
CRUDE stopped out balance 83.40 (+0.5R)

Open trades:

USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70

EURUSD short 1.40 stop 1.4030 - 1/2 position

Contrarian signals

Barron's had a interesting cover on Saturday:
Yes, all those money managers who thought the S&P was a sell at 1040 now think that stocks are cheap as the S&P kisses 1200.

If you are not a Barron's suscriber then you can read a cached version of the article by clicking HERE 
It shows big money surprisingly bullish and anytime that there are that many people on one side of the boat we could get nasty corrections.

Friday

Well GDP numbers came in OK and now we wait for PMI and consumer sentiment.
While the indices still look bullish but resting it is interesting to see how stocks and the dollar are moving in synch.  I think that the dollar can lead at turns and they could move together for several weeks before we see a correction in stocks.

I am watching this diamond top set up in EURUSD (4hr chart):

I am not expecting much follow through on moves today with big news next week (election, FOMC, NFP).
Have great weekends

Crude short 82.00 stop 82.30 PT 80.00
Crude closed 50% @3R 81.10 (+1.5R)
SILVER stopped out (-1R)
AUDCAD closed 50% @3R 0.9910 (+1.5R)

Open trades:

USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70

AUDCAD short 1.0045 stop 1.009, 1st PT 0.985 - 1/2 position

Thursday

It's a Pomo day and I am watching to see how high the risk bounces go.  I am still in sell rally mode.
Probably not doing much for the rest of the week.

Famous last words, sold some crude and watching AUDCAD
Crude balance of yest short stopped out 82.25 (-0.5R)
Crude short 82.40 stop 82.70 PT 81.50
AUDCAD short 1.0045 stop 1.009, 1st PT 0.985
USDCAD stopped out (-1R)
Crude short closed 50% @3R 81.50 (+1.5R)
Crude stopped out balance @1R 82.10 (+0.5R)

Open trades:

USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70

SILVER short 23.95 stop 24.30 target 22.25

AUDCAD

AUD respects the 88.6 fib ratio number.  If you put AUDUSD on a high time frame chart you will see what I mean and it works in all the AUD crosses as well.

On Monday I posted a chart of the monthly AUDCAD  chart showing that AUDCAD looked to have broken up above long term resistance that I was watching for a sell signal.  Weaker than expected CPI numbers tonight for Australia has sent this pair shanking and it now does look like a neat short setup.  A rejection at the 88.6fib (2004 highs to 2008 lows) and the big trendline and two equal corrective swings off the 6 June lows.

Wednesday

Not around today until later on Wednesday but a few charts and will update later in the day.

I added a trade in USDCAD tonight, long on the breakout of this triangle/wedge with a target of the upper trendline where there will be two symmetrical moves off the lows (AB=CD).

S&P daily chart
Mondays candle was a bearish shooting star, Tuesdays candle was a bearish hanging man and we are now set to retest the lower channel trendline. A break below this suggests a correction back to 1150 initially

There is apparently a big option barrier in EURUSD at 1.38 which China is expected to defend.  My EUR shorts might not go so well today, we shall see.
SILVER has made two equal corrective swings higher so I am short again and GOLD looks ready to rollover again also.

USDCAD long 1.0250 stop 1.0220 target 1.05-1.0550
SILVER short 23.95 stop 24.30 target 22.25
CRUDE short 81.95 stop 82.25 PT 80.00
CRUDE closed 50% @3R 81.05 (+1.5R)
USDCAD has stalled 2 pips short of my 3R target ... annoying

Open trades:

USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position

EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70

USDJPY & 10YR yield

Big break of the descending trendline from April.  This is what the 30yr yield did just before they sold off.  This is positive for USDJPY.

USDJPY 4hr chart, back in the wedge it broke from yesterday, if it keeps support at 81.00 this could be a good countertrend swing.  If it stays positive this week then weekly will be a good hammer candle too.  Obvious first resistance is at 83.00.

Tuesday 25 October

The shooting star daily candle in the S&P is interesting, having cleared out stops above the resistance level.  I have the bigger resistance, the 1.618 fib extension at at 1198.  I am still leaning towards a shallow correction in stocks, a bigger correction in gold and bonds (esp the long bond) and a big bounce for the USD dollar.

Big news today is UK GDP - forecast is for +0.4% q/q vs last quarters +1.2%.  I think the trade here is in EURGBP (even though I have had one false start trying to short this).

Weekly chart:
Now at the big 50fib retracement from the December 2008 highs and June 2010 lows it is also at major trendline resistance.  I still like this short even though pundits are now talking about parity again for EURGBP, this is a big fib level and big trendline and at the very least we get a bounce here.

Also this morning is the Riksbank rate decision.  Sweden has already made two 25bps rate hikes since the crisis and made it clear it will hike again.

EURSEK weekly candle was a bearish shooting star and the 6 week  bear flag has broken down setting up a retest of the lows at the downside measured move and fibonacci target is 8.920.
Having said that I think this hike is priced in and this chart is setting up a bullish gartley pattern and so I am watching for the bounce and price action back at 9.22 and a retest of the trendline to see if this is a trade.

Finally EURSGD is an interesting chart.
Daily chart shows two equal swings off the lows and stalled at a 1.27fib extension,  the tight trading range of the last two weeks looks like it is about to break down.  I was looking for a retest of the SR level at 1.8580 but if this range breaks down then downside targets are 1.7480 and then a retest of the lows.

New trade:
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 0.8530
Crude short 82.20 stop 82.50 PT 81.30 - will close at US open - POMO day
Crude closed break even
AUDUSD closed at target 0.9830 just before POMO (+3.3%)
EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70
USDCHF closed 50% @3R 0.9800 (+1.5R)
EURGBP closed 50% @3R 0.8770(+1.5R)

Open trades:
USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - 1/2 position
EURGBP short 8860 stop 8890 PT 0.85 - 1/2 position

EURSGD short 1.8040 stop 1.8190 PT 1.7650 / 1.70

More charts

AUDCHF weekly breakout
Upside targets are 1.0480 and 1.0950 this swing










Trades:
Crude short 83.10 stop 83.40 target 81.80
Crude closed 50% @3R 82.20 (+1.5R)
Crude closed balance @81.80 target (+2.1R)
AUDUSD short 9965 stop 1.05 PT 9830 - AB=CD and 88.6fib
USDCHF long 0.9710 stop 0.9680 PT 1.00 - hourly wedge breakout

Monday 25 October 2010

So we are 10 days from the US mid-term elections and 12 days from the much anticipated FOMC announcement of the next round of QE.  The pesky G20 meeting  photo-op is out of the way without any firm agreement and if tonights action is anything to go by no one believes Timmy and his strong dollar statements.  The run up into elections and QE are typically bullish for risk and so despite reversal patterns in the dollar crosses, bonds and shiny metals there is a good chance we have a risk rally into those events and so I am trading small and taking profits quickly this week.  
Data out of Japan was really good ~ despite the strong yen Japan exports are up 14% y/y and exports to the USA are up 10% y/y.  USDJPY is under pressure tonight and I think it is unlikely that the MoF will intervene so soon after the G20 and on the back of this strong data.  

Saturday was a full moon, often an interim turning point and the week has kicked off with new highs in stock index futures, the dollar getting crushed (again), commodities on a roar with China buying everything - cotton limit up in the first hour and at new all time highs and Gold on its way back up.  Sometimes the big rallies in Sunday night Asian session get faded once the week kicks off.  I am a bit skeptical this week with all that is going on but it is a possibility.
Goldman Sachs have thrown fuel on the fire by saying they see the possibility for as much as $4 trillion in additional quantitative easing going forward based on more than expected US economic weakness.
Mortgage bank mess has not gone away but you would not know it.


S&P

A big Asian open for the indices, the Dow industrials have broken above the 200dma and the S&P has made a clear break above the resistance zone and 1200 next is just about a certainty (I have fib extension resistance at 1198) and then the big fib level at 1234 which would also be the completion target of this summers diamond reversal pattern.
Last week which should have been a correction swing the index basically went sideways and held its level, very bullish.  Interestingly the Dax broke out higher Friday and is leading the way.

Dollar Index
We have a push lower to test the lows and the 3 year trendline support is around 75.80-76.00

EURUSD

Weekly chart has a doji followed by a bearish weekly hanging man at resistance which suggests a reversal.   A break of the highs has resistance at 1.4270 and then bigger resistance, the 61.8fib and trendline resistance at 1.4450

On the daily chart I am watching this possible flag forming.  While the trend is clearly bullish the two weekly candles warn of correction back to support at 1.3330



The same pattern is clear across all the USD pairs with GBP possibly the weakest.  I won't post all the charts, in this market, if one goes they all go.  I am watching 0.9980 AUDUSD,  1.0095 USDCAD and

USDJPY has broken support and is at 15 year lows, setup to test the 80.00 level and below that the all-time low at 79.75.  Fib target for USDJPY short is 78.50

Yen crosses are all a sell at this point, I am selling GBPJPY



All sterling crosses are weak (as is the CHF)

Here is GBPAUD which has fallen right out of bed after consolidating for the past two weeks.  Support / fib targets are 1.57 and 1.5050

GBPUSD - weekly chart
Cable could be a weekly double top forming (needs to break 1.5295 to confirm) and has fallen out of the rising channel with a complete daily candle opening and closing below it.  This could be a throwover but the bottom of the channel should now be resistance for a short entry.  A break of 1.5295 projects a target low of 1.46 but support at 1.50 and 1.4880

USDCHF weekly chart
Broke long time trendline resistance, should now be support for a long entry back to 0.99 initially and a break above there sets up 1.007 then 1.032

AUDCAD monthly chart.
Broke the big trendline resistance going back to 1995 tonight.  It makes sense, Asia is on fire and the US is not.  Australia exports to Asia and Canada exports to the USA.  I am a buyer on a retest and support at the trendline.

Good luck!

USD flash crash

The USD index dropped 4% in 10 minutes after stocks closed on Friday night before bouncing back again.  The low was 74.60 and apparently all trades below 75.85 are being cancelled.  Fortunately the arbitrage bots were off and the stop run didn't extend to major FX pairs but there could be some shock waves at tonights open.  You have been warned.

Weekly charts later.

Enjoy your weekend

Welcome to Pomo Friday

We apologise for the interruptions, your regularly scheduled bull market will resume later today ...
What a week this is.  The stock indexes have gone up, down, up, down and closed last night almost at last Friday's close in the S&P  ~ a doji day and a doji week so far for stocks.  Gold and silver have rolled over and broken trendline support and most of the FX vs USD pairs are also now making lower highs and lower lows.  In fact the only market still making higher highs and higher lows are stock indexes.
Greg Harmon has a really good post showing that the Gold market rolling over is leading this move and pulling the dollar and in turn pulling equities down with it.  What is interesting is that (aside from the ridiculous extreme bullish sentiment) what seems to have triggered the sell off in Gold is China tightening earlier this week and if thats the case it looks likely there is more tightening to come, so more gold selling and more dollar rally.  Stocks are being dragged down, not leading the charge so are not the best risk-off trade but shiny metals and bonds look like epic shorts.

This week there were/are Pomo days on Monday / Wednesday / Friday.  The market went up on those days and sold off on Tuesday and Thursday.  While this is not an exact science it is reasonable to exercise caution if you are trading the short side today in the NY session and perhaps take some profits and wait for the weekly candles to close.  What else goes up on Pomo days (apart from everything)?  Shiny metals like gold always go up on Pomo days ... which is good because I would like a pullback to sell again.
Even Goldman are telling clients to frontrun the Fed and buy Pomo days
And then there is the G20 this weekend where they have currencies on the agenda ...

New positions London open - I may close these before US open:

CRUDE short 81.30 stop 81.60 - 50%fib retrace - addition

AUDUSD short 0.9830 stop 0.9860 - addition
SILVER short 23.20 stop 23.40 PT 22.50

Closing everything for Pomo, even Goldman tells its clients to buy on Pomo days:
Crude closed all positions @81.00 (+1R) (+1.5R) (+1.6R)
AUDUSD closed all positions @ 0.98 (+1R) (+1R) (+0.9R)

USDCAD closed 1.0250 (+1R) 

Silver

Daily chart.  Breaks trendline support setting up a retest of $20.00 and the breakout from the big wedge.  I won't post a gold chart but Gold will be going the same way

Thursday 21 October

I am still looking for a risk-off correction today and buying USD but as always, timing is everything.

USDCAD - daily chart
USDCAD has pulled back to the 50% retracement of the big bounce off the lows and is now in its favourite support zone.  But the rally off the low stalled at the 50% retracement of the swing from the August high so its a big decision time.  I am looking to buy here with an upside target for this swing of 1.05 - 1.0550

S+P 4hr chart
Back at the top of the resistance zone favours shorts today.  A breakout above this zone means 1200 next.



New trades (10:20NY):
Crude short 82.20 stop 82.50 PT 80 initially
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0150 PT 1.0350 / 1.05
AUDUSD short 0.9870 stop 0.9905 PT 92.30  - addition
CRUDE short closed 50% @3R 81.00 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD short closed 50% @3R 0.9765 (+1.5R)
I am waiting for an entry to short Silver again - watching daily trendline

Open positions:

Crude short 83.70 stop 84.10 - 1/4 position left
Crude short 82.20 stop 82.50 - 1.2 position left

AUDUSD short 0.9910 stop 0.9940 - 1/4 position left
AUDUSD short 0.9870 stop 0.9905 - 1/2 position
USDCAD long 1.020 stop 1.0150

Wednesday 20 October

I am cautious today,  I tend to give back profit after big days.  Such big down days tend to produce back and fill and inside bar days the next day and the twitter stream is already full of PMOO and buy buy buy and the correction is over.
I am going to wait and see how today goes before adding to any positions but I think more downside is possible.

Here is the crude chart.  Which pattern is the one?
Daily chart

4hr chart - might be a channel, not a triangle

SPX 4hr chart
Needs to hold below the channel to convince me there is more downside to come.

EURUSD 4hr chart
Sell rallies, I am sticking with my 1.35 / 1.33 / 1.3150 targets

Tuesday 19 October

The dollar has its heels dug in and I am cautious but think the dollar continues to rally today.

I am still holding my shorts from yesterday and looking to sell some sterling or CAD but I may have to wait.  The big news today is the Bank of Canada rate statement.  Up until recently the BoC had been indicating they would hike but the signalling of more QE in the US means that is very unlikely so I am expecting the BoC to punt and the CAD to weaken.

NZDUSD weekly
Looks like a possible double top, I like this short with a target of 0.72 initially but watching for support at 0.7380 area

GBPJPY  weekly
I want to see a break of  126.70 and then downside targets are 121.50 and 115



Open Trades:
Crude short 83.70 stop 84.10 target 81.00 / 77.20
Silver short 24.40 stop 24.60 target 23.30
AUDUSD short 0.9910 stop 0.9940  target 0.93
New trade:
GBPJPY short 129.10 stop 1.2950 target 127.70 / 1.21.50
Today:
Silver short closed 1/2 @3R 23.80 (+1.5R)
Silver short closed balance @target  23.30 (+2.75R)
Crude closed 1/2 @3R 82.50 (+1.5R)
Crude closed 1/4 @80.00 (+2.3R)
GBPJPY closed 1/2 @3R 127.90 (+1.5R)
GBPJPY closed balance @target 1.2770 (+1.75R)
AUDUSD closed 1/2 @3R 0.9820 (+1.5R)
AUDUSD closed 1/4 @6R 0.9730 (+1.5R)

Open positions:
Crude short 83.70 stop 84.10 - 1/4 position left

AUDUSD short 0.9910 stop 0.9940 - 1/4 position left

Today was a big day, biggest range day in 60 days in the dollar pairs.  Tomorrow is a POMO day, we will see if / how high we bounce.

Sunday charts

I am either going to be a hero for calling this or a complete loser but the US dollar looks set to bounce this week. With the expected announcement of the next round of QE on 03November this is a counter trend high risk trade so if you are short the dollar against everything the safe trade is to take some profit at these resistance levels and wait for the bounce to be over.  QE looks to be pretty much priced in so instead of a correction or dollar bounce we could instead see a couple of weeks of ugly chop.  There does look to be some good opportunities in non-dollar pairs.  

SPX

At resistance but the uptrend is so strong it is hard to see anything more than shallow pullbacks until QE2 is out of the way. The daily candles are bearish and indicate a possible reversal but needs to break below the rising channel and 1162 to confirm.  A break below 1162 sets up a retest of 1150 next and then further support at 1125-1130 area.  I am still in buy dips mode with an upside target of 1234 longer term.

FTSE 

Bearish bat fibonacci pattern and two equal swings off the August lows suggest we get a correction here.  And a break below 5630 confirms.  First support is around 5520 but the fibonacci pattern targets are 5415 / 5370 and 5250.  Longer term still says buy dips.

Dollar Index

Dollar has bounced smartly off the bottom of the wedge and at the very least we should get a dead cat bounce here back to 80.00. 

GOLD

Weekly chart bouncing at the 1.27fib extension.  There is not enough evidence to short here yet but I am watching it.  If I was long I would take some profits here and wait for the next pullback to add.

SILVER

Weekly chart.  I like this short.  It is a fibonacci bearish butterfly pattern, at the 1.27 fib extension of the 2008 hi/lows and the 1.41 fib extension of the 2008 low - 2009 high.  Price has been rejected at 24.90 just shy of the round number 25.  A break above 25 sends it to 26.20-27.20 next and the bearish pattern is still valid.  I am stalking an entry, a break  below 23 confirms we go to 1950 then18.70 next.

CRUDE
Triangle consolidation at the top of a rising channel.  Lower time frames show a break of the trendline from 23Sep.  Gold is underperforming metals like copper and gold and oversupply is becoming a drag.  I am looking for a break lower to test 80.00 and if that breaks back to the bottom of the channel

Will post currencies Monday morning.

Trades:
Crude short 83.70 stop 84.10 - top of the wedge
AUDUSD short 99.10 stop 99.40 (toe in the water)
SILVER short 24.40 stop 24.60
AUDUSD stopped out (-1R)
AUDUSD short (again) 99.30 stop 99.60

EURNZD

This pair is the most volatile FX pair, you have been warned.  However this double bottom is looking really solid and I think this trade has really good risk:reward back to 2.00
I didn't post this yesterday because the daily candle looked a bit bearish but todays big rally looks much better.

Here is the weekly chart:

Here is the 240min chart:
I am looking at a pullback to 1.8470 to buy at the moment but watching the price action and I will update on levels once this ripper pauses.

Breakouts

After three failed attempts to break 1.40 and what looked like a triple top the surprise tightening by Singapore tonight (widening of the trading band for the SGD ~ allowing it to appreciate vs the USD) has spurred a big jump in risk and EURUSD has made a run on the stops above 1.40. There must have been a bunch of stops because the move is a biggie blasting it out of the rising channel and the triangle consolidation and straight through the 0.618fib retracement. USDCAD also has pierced the parity level and the dollar is being sold across the board.
1.40 should be support now for EURUSD and the top of the triangle breakout.

So where are we at with the dollar?
 Well almost at the bottom of the big weekly wedge which looks to be about 76.00 - 76.50 so the price action here will be interesting and once we have tested this trendline and see if it breaks or is support then we can look at the dollar crosses.

Last weeks weekly doji in EURGBP at the 50fib retracement did not hold as a reversal and this has been busted to the upside too.  The next level of interest is just short of 0.89 where it meets the 61.8fib and the underside of the big weekly triangle that it broke from in April. One to watch.

I am also watching GBPCHF for a bottom, I think that GBPCHF long may have more potential.  The weekly chart shows if we hold here we have a potential double bottom, so I am watching the daily price action.  A break below this support and I am watching for a test of 1.50 and the fib extension at 1.4980 to buy for a bounce.

USDCAD has support at 0.9930 and then 0.9710

EURAUD looks to have broken above a trend line going back to Dec 2008 and daily chart confirms it.  I am stalking a long entry in this pair.

60 minutes documentary on High Frequency Trading

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Holiday Monday

Will post weekly charts Monday because of the holiday in USA and Canada and back to trading on Tuesday.

25 Million Pounds

25 Million Pounds, 1996 documentary about rogue trader Nick Leeson and the collapse of Barings Bank.  
Won the Best Science and Nature Documentary in the 1998 San Francisco International Film Festival. Directed by Adam Curtis 

NFP

So we have some pretty good reversal candles at key levels in the dollar crosses and stock indexes.   But today is NFP and the talking heads are forecasting a positive number for the first time in a very long time.
The market anticipation of QE2 means we could be in for some Costanza trading though, as much of the additional QE has been priced in the last couple of weeks.  A better than expected jobs number *could* send stocks lower on the basis that more QE could be delayed and a bad print *could* send them higher.
Big reversal candles often produce an inside bar or harami the following day but it will still look good next week.
I won't post all the charts today, will do that on the weekend.

EURUSD
Doji at the big 1.40 level and fib timing from the low supports a change of direction here.
Support zones at 1.35, 1.3330 and 1.3130.

EURUSD

EURUSD weekly chart
Everyone is looking at the big 61.8fib retracement and the 200weekly SMA but the measured move objective for this is 1.4044 and it is setting up a weekly bearish gartley pattern.  I am not in a rush to short this, I want to see a good set up.

More charts USDCAD, EURGBP

EURGBP weekly chart
EURGBP is at a level where we could see a correction lower.   0.8730 is a big pivot and the 38.2fib from the 2008 highs to 2010 lows, the  50fib from the 2009 high to 2010 low and also the 61.8fib from the 2010 highs to lows. It is also the trendline from the 2009 highs.
I think this is a low risk short back to 84.80 at least

USDCAD has broken the bottom of the big daily wedge and looks set to retest the lows.  If crude can hold and close above 83 then it will help this short.
If the dollar gets a bounce then I like EURCAD or maybe AUDCAD better.